Shohei Ohtani Regression
The projections are extremely interesting on Ohtani tonight.
He’s averaged 25.4 fantasy points per start this year. Tonight’s projections:
MLB DW Model: 15.1
Bat X Model: 16.8
He’s in Arizona to face the D’Backs. The Snakes are hitting .254/.319/.425 at home this year with a 17% K% and an 8.4% BB%. That’s a tough lineup to go against, the projections are screaming about it.
The other thing to point out is that Ohtani, while clearly being a top five arm in the league, has been very lucky. His .202 BABIP is tied with Spencer Arrigheti for the lowest in the league. He’s also given up just two hmers this year on a 10% HR/FB. His 50% GB% is high, and he does keep the ball out of the air well while limiting hard contact with the best in the league, but he’s not going to go much longer with a 10% HR/FB while the league average hangs out around 15%.
One more thing: he has a 91% LOB%. That’s tied for the third-highest in the league (Burns at 94.5%, Harrison at 92.2%, Nick Martinez at 91% with Ohtani).
There’s this market on DraftKings that I’m finding my way into. It’s hits allowed + walks allowed + earned runs allowed. The line on Ohtani tonight is over 8.5 for -125. And my model’s projection is 10.6. So we’re way over, and we’re locking in the bet.
Arrighetti’s Ticking Time Bomb
At the top of the H+BB+ER allowed projections is Spencer Arrighetti.
The great thing about projection is that they ignore the stuff that should be ignored. For the things that are mostly out of the pitcher’s control (BABIP, HR/FB, LOB%, etc.) we properly regress all of that and use the right input.
Arrighetti’s line is at 9.5 for -135. I like that quite a bit.
