Little something SPECIAL for this Friday. If I had all of the time in the world, I’d probably write up one of these several times a week. But there are only so many hours in the day. But let’s rip through some spots where the tools are lighting.
These could possibly end up being duplicates of what Trevor will give us later in his Daily Slip. But I’m going to pu
GRANT HOLMES STRIKEOUTS
Sometimes my projection model can be a touch over-heated. That seems to be the case with Grant Holmes and his seven-strikeout projection tonight. But we have a good matchup for the Holmesinator tonight. Cincy has high strikeout rates up and down the lineup against righties:
And Grant Holmes has one of the illest sliders in the league.
That’s an 116 MLB DW grade. That’s up there with the league’s best arms:
So that’s what the model is picking up on. So you can run the ladder with Holmes. The prices are better on FanDuel, but here’s what we’ve got on DK:
Over 3.5 -460
Over 4.5 -227
Over 5.5 -107
Over 6.5 +191
TROY MELTON OBLITERATION
The books have a tougher time pricing things when an unknown arm is on the bump. We haven’t seen much of Melton lately. But we can pick out some signal right away with our knowledge of the ball #BallKnawl.
Melton throws four-seamers (50%) and sliders (25%) a lot. Those two pitches get hit in the air… a lot. Last time he threw a bunch of innings in the minors (2024), he gave up 1.7 HR/9. In his Major League career, he’s at 1.23 HR/9.
But he’s made just one start this year and did not give up a homer. But that will happen, and it will happen TONIGHT.
Five dudes with high FB% against righties:
That’s more than half of the lineup with a FB% above 33%. Wild stuff. So the White Sox are going deep tonight.
WHITE SOX OVER 1.5 TEAM HR +115
MURAKAMI +227
MONTGOMERY +272
BENINTENDI +400
ROMO +770
With Erick Fedde on the other side, that game could be a shootout.
OVER 8.5 -120
CARLOS RODON IN SAC TOWN
Went over him in the DFS write-up where we like him a lot for cash lineups tonight. Rodon is priced down in DFS, and a little bit priced down in betting as well. The A’s aren’t imposing against lefties, Rodon is fully built up, and the Yankees lineup is in a phenomenal spot against a righty.
The strikeout lines are fair. But I’m seeing this:
CARLOS RODON OVER 15.5 OUTS -102
CARLOS RODON TO WIN +185
Parlay those bad boys together if you can. DraftKings doesn’t let us do that. But I’ve taken them both as singles.
GAME O/U TRACKER
We’ve lost a couple of points on the tracker, but still winning at a 54% rate. You can find these daily in the Cheat Sheet.
Today, we have this:
When we’re above a 1.7-run difference, we’re 40-29 for a 58% win rate. That’s a good sign for the over 7.5 with this Kolek vs. Gore matchup.
OVER 7.5 IN KC/TEX
The model has taken 11 UNDER bets in Coors and has won six of them. So hey that’s 55%! lol. I like Webb’s ability to handle himself in Coors, and do we really trust this Giants lineup to go big even against Lorenzen?
UNDER 10.5 IN COORS
KIRBY’S HAMMER
That’s a Nintendo character right? Doesn’t he have a big ass hammer he smacks people with?
The D’Backs match up horribly with Kirby’s stuff. They’re the #29 offense of 29 offenses graded tonight. That’s dead last for you math majors.
He’ll have to find a way to get Marte and Carroll out, but nobody else appears to be a real threat. Buncha poop heads in the Arizona lineup. And Kirby’s home park gives him a big boost here as well. I’m not hyped about the strikeouts seeing Kirby’s lower K% this year and those nice SwStr% rates for the D’Backs. So we’re going to these markets:
GEORGE KIRBY UNDER 5.5 HITS ALLOWED -128
GEORGE KIRBY OVER 18.5 OUTS +128
BARREL BOOMERS
The top of the BOOM hitter list, descending by Brl%:
It’s a prime spot for Judge. I’m not as into Ohtani/Trout in those matchups. But Cowser is ripping dingers of late (11.5% Brl% in May), and he is in a good matchup.
And the big man James Wood gets a cake matchup against Giolito, who, even in his good years, gave up plenty of dingers.
So the barrel boom parlay is Judge + Wood for a dinger each.
That’ll get you +1200 on DraftKings. But I’d encourage the serious bettors to go get that on whatever book has the best lines.
HOME RUN LINE EXPLOITATION
The most wrong lines on the books we’re finding with the HR model:
Abreu against Cecconi , Rooker against Rodon, Adell against Martinez, Heim against Rodon, and Yastrzemski against Paddack.
The Braves are in a smash spot of their own against Paddack in GABP. So you can go to them for a win or over 4.5 runs or whatever you get and feel pretty good about that.
MONEY LINE PICKS
Some moneylines I’m piling on:
Twins +113
Jared Jones’ return. First start back in a long time. The outing will probably be pretty short and he’s prone to having very poor command. It’s been 1.5 years since he’s pitched; it probably won’t go well. And the Pirates lineup is battered right now with no O'Hearn and Griffin listed as DTD.
Braves -143
I’m behind Holmes and trying to be way against Paddack. Not sure why this one isn’t like -175
Yankees -143
Mariners -144
That’s THE PROFIT PLAN. Enjoy your night!