The Re-Evaluation: Catcher
A fresh look at the catcher position for 2026 fantasy leagues
We're coming up on the two-month point, so I figured it was time to put myself through a whole bunch more writing. Decisions need to be made at this point. We can’t wait forever for guys to get going, so it’s time to take a look at each hitter position and make some new judgments.
Let’s remind ourselves of the top 20 at the position from the preseason. I’m using NFBC Main Event final ADP for this:
The Elite
Ben Rice
Shea Langeliers
These two are the runaway C1 and C2 right now. They’re helped by Drake Baldwin recently getting hurt and Cal Raleigh also being hurt and having struggled so mightily.
But let’s take a quick gander at these two slugging catchers in their prime years.
They’re not as young as you might think. They were both mid-20s breakouts, which I guess can be more common at catcher than other spots.
Of course, Ben Rice isn’t playing catcher this year. But his eligibility carried over from last.
Neither guy steals bases, but they’re super-studs everywhere else. They’re hitting near the top of their respective lineups and hitting a mess of homers with high batting averages.
I’d give the #1 spot to Rice because of the lack of abuse his body is taking not having to catch this year and the better team context.
The Injured
Drake Baldwin
Cal Raleigh
Ryan Jeffers
Alejandro Kirk
Yainer Diaz
Francisco Alvarez
This has been the story in recent weeks. Injuries all over the place.
CAL RALEIGH
Cal Raleigh hit .161/.243/.317 with just seven homers in 180 PAs before hitting the IL. It shouldn’t be more than a couple more weeks of him being on the shelf, but I doubt you’re super pumped to get him back given what he’s been doing to your team. The bad news is a 31.5% K% and vastly reduced quality of contact (.289 xwOBA).
The good news is that he’s still air pulling a ton (25.5%) and has a 12% Brl%. That 12% Brl% doesn’t look nearly as good in the context of his high strikeout rate and 10% BB%. He’s getting a ball in play in less than 60% of trips to the plate, so the balls in play denominator on that barrel rate is lower than other guys with similar barrel rates. It’s not good. My advice is just start him when he gets back and keep at it. There’s a very good chance he gets healthy and looks a lot more like his 2024-2025 self than his 2026 self.
DRAKE BALDWIN
He’ll still be my #3 catcher even with the recent trip to the IL. It was a grade one oblique strain. So that could end up being a pretty short IL stint. Or maybe it’s worse than they’re leading us to believe. Or maybe he’ll re-aggravate it immediately upon coming back never play baseball again. Anything is possible.
But he’s a great hitter. That much is clear.
→ .303/.386/.543, 20.% K%, 10.7% BB%, 18.6% Brl%, .417 xwOBA
RYAN JEFFERS
He broke the old hamate bone a few days ago, so he’s gone at least a month and might get some of that 2026 thump reduced while fully recovering. I hadn’t realized how good he was hitting:
→ .276/.392/.520, 15.5% K%, 15.5% BB%, 15.8% Brl%, .389 xwOBA
But that’s all gone now. Just when you caught on to his hot season and started reaping the benefits, the hamate hooks him!
My guess is that he gets back in late June and doesn’t come close to replicating those numbers. That performance was way, way above what he was projected at. So we expected major regression even without the broken bone thing going on.
YAINER DIAZ
It was an oblique for him, but it’s been a little while already. You’ll probably see him again by mid-June. But it’s been his second straight season not doing anything with the bat.
→ .248/.264/.356, 15% K%, 3% BB%, 3.4% Brl%, .257 xwOBA
I’d probably be looking for another long-term replacement. But I do think when he gets back, he’ll hit for some better batting average if nothing else. His .270 BABIP is pretty low and he does not strike out much. He’s just too swing happy without a ton of raw power.
ALEJANDRO KIRK
He’s been out since early April with an early-June targeted return date. He made it just 22 PAs into his season with a poor start (.150/.227/.350). We know that Kirk can put up some really strong AVG/OBP ratios without giving you much in homers. So he’s whatever. Always better for points/OBP leagues. In standard roto, I’d probably be fine just letting someone else have him while you search for a better option.
FRANCISCO ALVAREZ
Torn meniscus! It could take until around the All Star break to get Francisco back. He hit four homers in 128 PAs, which isn’t awful, and had a 16.5% Brl% with a .241 average. He was doing fine, but we don’t have to think much about for him awhile.
Is he good enough to justify an IL stash with hopes for second half production? Maybe. But I’m not sure he’s really earned that kind of respect wiht what he’s done in his career.
The Next Tier
Hunter Goodman
William Contreras
Ivan Herrera
Given the rest of what’s been happening, you’re probably feeling pretty good about having these three on your team.
HUNTER GOODMAN
Tons of strikeouts. He’s up at 35.5% now with a very bad 77% Zone Contact%. And like we talked about Raleigh, that lowers the impact of 13.5% Brl%. It’s probably a good thing for him that he doesn’t walk a ton; that has him getting more balls in play. But he’s going to go through some brutal cold stretches, as he already has this year.
So Goodman is one of these guys that smashes the ball when he’s hitting it. He swings hard and does not hit many balls on the ground (31%). So he has that uppercut swing, or whatever the newfound term for that would be today. I haven’t gotten myself much into the swing plane business as of yet.
Unlike most Rockies, the guy does mostly his normal thing on the road.
This year, he has eight of his 11 homers away from Coors and a higher xBA and xwOBA when he gets away from the mountains.
So that’s all pretty weird, and just a consequence of the small samples so far. Not even to 100 PAs on either split.
It’s good news so far for Goodman. I was worried some of these problems of his would turn into a power outage, but that hasn’t happened and he’s doing just fine for your fantasy leagues. If nothing else, he’s giving you mostly what you drafted him for. And he’s healthy.
WILLIAM CONTRERAS
His value is so league-dependent. Just three homers this year after only hitting 17 last year. So he had 23 in 155 games in 2024 and now 20 in 194 games since then.
But he does not strike out and hits the ball hard while taking some walks, so he’s very valuable for batting average, OBP, and counting stats with his everyday role.
That’s a seven-point drop in K%, which is wild. But you’ll notice the SLG is down ten points, because he’s just smashing the ball into the ground even more than usual.
So if you’re in a standard roto league where OBP isn’t a category and you’re looking for homers, Contreras is probably overrated by your league. But he’s perfectly fine in a year where few teams are getting great production from their catcher.
IVAN HERRERA
He didn’t have catcher eligibility to start the year, but he got it a couple of weeks back, and he’s having another nice season with the stick.
He was hurt at the beginning of the year. If we forgive his first couple of weeks, he’s hitting .285/.386/.462 in his last 153 PAs with a .343 xwOBA. Very good hitter and playing. He has 30 starts at DH and 17 at catcher, which is a very good thing to see. You like that. It means he’s playing everyday and not putting as much load on the knees.
But he’s hitting the ball on the ground a lot (52%), so he’s a Contreras-like hitter who probably isn’t going to get to 25+ homers. But he’s very good, and he’s been a big part of this Cardinals season where they’re playing very well because of a pretty studly lineup.
Struggling Studs
Will Smith
Salvador Perez
J.T. Realmuto
WILL SMITH
Even with Ohtani not being in the lineup every day, which is brand new, Smith only has one DH start. So we have the same problem that he’s going to come up well shy of the league leaders at the position in playing time.
And he’s having a pretty bad season with the bad. A .674 OPS and a career-low 2.5% HR%.
That should bounce back. He has a .366 xwOBA with an actual wOBA much lower than that.
Smith will come around, but his ceiling is capped by those couple of off days he gets per week.
SALVADOR PEREZ
Has the age finally caught up to him? He’s hitting for a .587 OPS with seven homers and a .281 xwOBA.
You weren’t drafting him to be a consistent guy with a good OBP, but he’s hit 23+ homers in five straight years. So his 3.6% HR% is probably getting your jimmies a bit rustled.
My guess is that he’s just going through a cold streak but timing it at the very beginning of the season. With his swing-happy approach at the plate, he’s always susceptible to the cold spell.
Nothing is changing for the guy. He knows who he is. He’s up there hacking, but the raw power is always enough to make up for most of it.
Check out the BABIP by year for Sal:
2021: .298
2022: .285
2023: .294
2024: .302
2025: .251
2026: .215
So he was a .290 guy for four years, and then dropped to .250 last year, and now it’s plummeted further to .215.
So that’s coming back up. And probably will be above .260 the rest of the year. Or maybe not! He is losing some bat speed:
Which isn’t surprising for a 36-year-old. His best years are very obviously well in the rear view. There really isn’t any bad luck to lean into with a. 216 xBA and a .281 xwOBA. But I think the smart money would be on a bounce-back here from Perez pretty soon.
J.T. REALMUTO
It’s looking like Realmuto is done for, and the Phillies might have been a little bit too loyal to him to give him another contract. But you have to respect that in some ways. The Phillies like their guys and they’re willing to reward them for their contributions in the past. Or maybe they just didn’t have a better choice, I don’t know.
After a 12-homer season in 2025, he’s got just one in 30 games this year and he hasn’t even attempted a steal yet. At age 35, I’m willing to just say he’s not a standard league fantasy option at this point. He’s hitting way down in the lineup, and obviously, he’s not getting any DH or 1B looks anytime soon.
Some Surprises
Adley Rutschman
Dillon Dingler
Liam Hicks
ADLEY RUTSCHMAN
Best home run rate of the guy’s career!
Seven bombs and a .525 SLG for Adley. The Brl% is 9%, which is MEH, but better than we’ve come to see from him. And he has a very nice 85% Contact% with a .347 xwOBA.
And he’s slugging pretty well from both sides of the dish.
Good signs being shown from Rutschman. Interestingly, he’s not walking like he usually does. I think pitchers just aren’t giving him much respect and pumping strikes to him, but they might have to rethink that with his performance this year.
DILLON DINGLER
He’s playing a bunch with 174 PAs. He’s 9th at the position in PAs. The .239/.310/.452 slash line isn’t putting you to bed with a smile on your face at night, but check out the luck:
.293 xBA
.388 xwOBA
13.1% Brl%
.257 BABIP
He’s been one of the most unfortunate hitters in the league. He hits the ball in the air, and hits it hard enough to matter. Again, a 13% Brl% with a sub-20% K% is very good. Dingler is a good hitter.
LIAM HICKS
He’s tied for the league lead (as of 5/20) with 42 RBI. Who had Hicks and Andy Pages being at the top of that list?
Hicks is a contact beast. I mean a super-beast with a 96.8% Zone Contact%!
The power numbers aren’t great. His nine homers don’t make at on of sense with a 5.8% Brl%. But he’s getting balls in play at a crazy high rate with that 9% K% and 7% BB%. That’s a ball in play in 84% of PAs. This is the Jose Ramirez approach to piling up some extra homers.
But he’s got some splits issues:
And we obviously didn’t expect anything like this projection-wise, so it’s hard to believe it can sustain.
He’s #3 on the player rater:
SRV = STANDARD ROTO VALUE
So good for him, man. If you added him right away this year, you’re happy, and you should just keep starting him and hope the Marlins don’t see a lot of lefties the rest of the way. I’ll have him ranked way, way lower than his current performance places him.
The Upside Youth
Samuel Basallo
Carter Jensen
Dalton Rushing
Moises Ballesteros
SAMUEL BASALLO
A recent surge has him up to a .474 SLG with a .257 xBA and a .331 xwOBA. Check out the progression:
Big news there. In his last 81 PAs (before Wednesday, when he homered again): .368/.407/.605, 24.7% K%, 10.7% Brl%.
He had 118 PAs in the bigs last year, so he had that valuable introductory 100 PAs to the Majors, and after a slower start to the year in 2026, he’s been fantastic.
Only 15 PAs so far against lefties:
So he’s sitting against lefties quite a bit, but he’s hit just fine against them with that .384 xwOBA. He might be a top-five catcher the rest of the way home, baby! Buy now if you can.