The Re-Evaluation: First Base
A fresh look at the first base position for 2026 fantasy leagues
Here’s the preseason top 20 by Main Event ADP:
Things don’t look too much different than that list.
There are a ton of dudes eligible at first base. I’ve got 54 eligible guys with at least 100 PAs this year. I’m going to have cut this down to save myself some work. But let’s see what we can do.
Studs Being Studs
Nick Kurtz
Matt Olson
Ben Rice (catcher)
Bryce Harper
Yandy Diaz
The standard player rater has this as the clear top five at the position:
Stewart
Olson
Rice
Kurtz
Harper
Yandy Diaz
But it changes quite a bit if you switch up the categories and what not. I’m doing my rankings as an attempt at a “catch all”. I don’t want to completely ignore OBP/points leagues, so I keep that in mind during ranking.
MATT OLSON
14 bombs already with a .944 OPS. He’s looking like his 2023 self again. Not to that extent (7.5% HR% in 2023, 6.4% this year), but this has been a a huge year for Olson with a 16.3% Brl% and a .388 xwOBA
BEN RICE
If things are going well for your fantasy team, you’re using Rice as your catcher and not your first baseman. But he’d be among the elites at this position too. It’s much easier to find a decent bat on waivers at first base compared to catcher, so I would be looking to find a way to get Rice to your C slot if you’re struggling with that currently. And in keeper/dynasty leagues, this is probably the last time he’ll have catcher eligibility, so enjoy it while it lasts.
NICK KURTZ
He’ll be my #1 guy on this list. He had a slow start, hitting .196/.373/.239 with no homers through his first 59 PAs. But he hit his first homer on April 12th and since then:
→ .299/.451/.567, 8 HR, 4 SB in 162 PAs
I suppose his eight homer total is underwhelming you after he hit 36 in 117 games last year. He’s giving a lot of PAs away to the K% (29%) and BB% (21%). That’s one of the highest K+BB% in the league. It’s awesome for points and OBP leagues, but leaves you hungry for a little more juice in AVG leagues. But he’s hitting .272, so that’s fine.
You should have expected the walk rate to go up. After what he did last year, pitchers came into this year not excited to throw him pitches to hit. He’s seeing a 44.7% Ball% this year, very high, and he’s happy to let the ball go by him with a low 39% Swing%.
His BABIP is way up there at .386. Nobody can do that long-term, but he can definitely be a .340+ guy with how hard he hits the ball and how many line drives he hits. He’s also contributing with six steals and an elevated 9% attempt rate (2% last year). So he’s a 30-homer, 15-steal guy with potential to hit .270.
The struggles with lefties have continued. He’s hitting .246/.361/.344 with a homer and a .256 xwOBA against them. I think he’s been pretty lucky to hit .246 (.169 xBA). That will keep the ceiling down a touch and it’s going to keep getting teams to use their left-handed relievers in innings he’s due up.
If you’re in a standard roto league where the walks don’t help you, maybe he’s not the #1 guy. Maybe you’d opt for Olson. But probably not. Kurtz is the man and who knows - maybe he’ll get even better in years two and three.
BRYCE HARPER
He’s boosted the home run rate up to 5.7% after being at 3.8%, 4.8%, and 4.7% the last there years. That has him back to where he was in 2021 when he hit 35 bombs. He still runs a little bit with three steals and an 8% attempt rate.
Everything looks very nice for Harper. The K% is at 18%, the Brl% is at 14%, and it’s a huge .406 xwOBA. He looks like prime Harper again as the Phillies make one more run at things before this core ages out of their prime years.
YANDY DIAZ
I did not have him replicating a 4% home run rate this year going from Steinbrenner back to Tropicana. But he’s barreling it at a higher rate (8.6%) and still giving very few PAs away to the strikeout (12%) and walk (7%).
The xBA is at .305, which is 8th-best in the league.
And it doesn’t necessarily have to regress like most of the rest of that crew. This is what Yandy does. Gets a ton of hard hit balls into play.
The launch angle histogram is a thing of beauty:
It’s a tick to the left of the elite home run range, as always, but in years past he’s had a lot more tall bars concentrated around zero. This is the picture of how you hit for a high batting average, and he’s getting to some homers even in the worse park for hitting.
Maybe we should re-evaluate that. They did have to redo the Trop, so maybe some of the aesthetic changes that had to be made have made it a little easier to hit there. The dimensions are the same, I believe, but it wasn’t all about the dimensions. The batter’s eye and lighting seemed to be disadvantageous to hitters in years past. It’s pretty hard to prove anything on that numerically, but the Rays have hit better at home this year (.755 OPS) than on the road (.705).
Or maybe it’s just small sample luck.
The HR/Brl% is at a five-year low and the air SLG is down a bit too.
I’m not going to get hung up on that. And I still don’t love Yandy for roto leagues. He has a career high of three steals and I’m hesitant to buy into him as the 25-homer guy he was last year.
The Breakout
Sal Stewart