The Right Way to Bet Homers
An explanation of how the MLB DW Home Run Model Works
You’ve seen the home run betting bro’s all over social media. It’s the lowest-hanging fruit in sports betting. Chicks dig the long ball, and so do the 26-year-old dudes sitting on their mom’s couch trying to win $100K on an impossible long shot home run parlay so they don’t have to deliver DoorDash again tomorrow.
That’s harsh, but at least I’m not calling anybody out specifically.
The books know a lot of stuff, but the thing they know best is how to catch the fish. And in these days of free Baseball Savant data and AI models that can do (or at least pretend to do) most anything you tell them to with data, there’s no shortage of people claiming to have a profitable home run betting model.
Have you ever heard of the APPEAL TO AUTHORITY fallacy? That’s when somebody says they are right with their evidence, just being some credential they have. You shouldn’t trust those guys.
Forget I said that. I have a Master’s Degree in Data Science. I am literally a MASTER of SCIENCE. I just credential’d your ass.
But yeah, I have a good brain for this stuff. I have a very good projection model that I’ve developed over the years, even before the AI boom - but recent upgrades have certainly been made with the help of that massive computing power.
But let’s get to the actual point.
HOW TO BET HOMERS
It’s not about who is most likely to hit a homer. It’s not about Shohei Ohtani having a 25% Brl% facing a fly ball right-handed pitcher. It’s about the price. It’s always, always about the price.
So what you do:
Get a very good home run projection for each player (not easy to do)
Compare that projection with what the books are saying
I’ve got Shohei Ohtani for 0.32 home runs today. That’s a lot. But he’s +210 to hit a home run. Let’s show the math.
0.32 home run projection = 27.4% chance to hit a homer
27.4% chance to hit a homer = +265 fair odds
So you’re getting ripped off at +210. It’s a bad bet. And that’s how it goes for every single MLB stud home run hitter, with a few exceptions in some spots.
And yet, the studs are the ones who get the most bets. The books eat fish every night here.
What we need to do then is find the hitters where the math is in our favor.
DOUBLE-CHECK WITH THE MATCHUPS MODEL
There are two other components to this final product. First, we check with some other indicators we like and adjust the MLB DW price. It’s a fact-check from some other systems just to adjust down the guys that MLB DW model might be unfairly hot on. That happens with rookies sometimes. New players don’t have MLB data to use, so we’re using their minor league records to get there - and that’s a lot tougher to do, so we can go over-heated on some guys.
The second component is the MATCHUPS MODEL. This is about as advanced as it gets. It studies the movement profiles of each pitcher’s mix, and then sees how the hitters they’re facing today have faired against pitch movement like that over a large, recent sample (going back 1-2 years).
So it clusters those pitches together based on their movement (not just the pitch type, but the three-dimensional movement) and gets each hitter’s swinging-strike rate and barrel rate against those specific pitches. We want lower swinging strike rates and higher barrel rates - that’s where homers come from.
It then filters out the guys who have below-average scores in the matchups model, just to make sure we’re giving out the best picks in multiple models.
AN EXAMPLE
It’s June 24th as I write this. Kevin McGonigle and the Tigers take on Ryan Weathers in Detroit tonight. The projection is 0.15 homers for McGonigle. Not very high, it’s just a 14% chance for him to go deep. The fair odds from that is +620. But BetMGM is offering +800. You’re still around an 85% chance to lose the bet, but the 15% of wins makes up for the 85% of losses because of the price you’re getting.
The matchups model comes in and sees that McGonigle has a tiny little 2.8% SwStr% and a 6.7% Brl% against the types of stuff he’ll see from Weathers tonight. That’s a low barrel rate, but the volume of contact boosts the overall score up. He’s one of the most likely hitters to get some balls into play tonight, so his 6.7% Brl% plays above that actual mark.
He qualifies in all three checks, so we make him a recommended home run bet.
As a single bet, you’re losing at a high rate. But if you pile up hundreds of these +EV bets throughout the year, you’re going to hit a profit.
And that’s exactly what we’ve seen this year while tracking the model.
Betting is a volume game. You have to take your small edges and pile them up. The model has been searching multiple books every day for every possible edge, and it’s piled up 1,581 recommendations to this point. That’s almost 20 bets per day. And that can be tough to keep up with. But the results speak for themselves if you can do it. The model is +29 units this year. Over the last 30 days, it’s +42 units. The books have been slower to catch up on the weather impacts than the projections have been.
If you’re a subscriber at MLB DW, you get this sheet daily (check the Resource Glossary for the MATCHUPS CHEAT SHEET and find the HR Cheat Sheet there).
If you’re a PRO member, these are also available in the PRO tools on the web app where the projections live.
It’s updated several times throughout the day as the projections change (the main reason for that would be lineups coming out and weather changing) and as the lines change. You’ll get some picks early in the day that will disappear as the books fix their bad pricing.
If you’re only or primarily a home run bettor, you can get the plays delivered daily for just $5/month through DubClub. Click here to sign up for that if you don’t want to go all the way to $12/month or $85/year here at MLB DW.
I’ll probably be developing some other offerings over there to get you more data and more automated picks for cheap.
Do me a favor, though. Don’t go crazy with this. Don’t quit your job, don’t plan your finances based on a profit here. The books are vicious, and they play tricks. Even with the best projections, the best models, the best processes - the books have the final say. They’ll change their lines, they’ll turn up the juice, they’ll limit or ban you if you’re doing too well. Just do this for fun and hopefully some fun money to spend if the profits keep steady.
ENJOY! Feel free to reach out with comments, questions, etc. any time!