The Sharp & The Fish: Round 10
A series where we pick out the best and worst picks in each round
Click here to view the rest of this series.
Another morning, another post! These have been pretty easy for me to jam out since I’ve spent all of these hours going through all 30 teams in the team previews series. I have written 29 of the 30 so far, so I have a pretty solid feel for the player pool this year.
Here are my options to choose from in round ten:
We’re going DOUBLE RAYS here. It’s a rare situation with the Rays. They played the 2025 season in George Steinbrenner Field, which had some of the closest fences in the league. That boosted their hitters and brought down their pitchers. But now, we go back to Tropicana for 2026.
At the same time, the Rays have stripped their lineup. Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe are both gone, and they haven’t been replaced well. The projected lineup has Gavin Lux, Cedric Mullins, Jake Fraley, Taylor Walls, and Nick Fortes in it. It’s a rough-looking team. And I think the Rays are fine with that. They’re entering a mini-rebuild mode here. And that’s the nature of the game they play as a low-payroll team.
For counting stats and run support, it’s bad news. But, on the flip side, it’s a very positive move for the ratios of their pitching staff. The Trop is a good place to pitch.
So the arrows are pointing in very different directions. Offensive production is going to be DOWN for the Rays, but their pitchers should have a much more enjoyable time in 2026. So I give you this:
SHARP: RYAN PEPIOT
The one thing we should say is that most half-competent fantasy baseballers are going to be aware of this. So a lot of it will be baked into the price. We see that with Pepiot:
He’s at least two rounds cheaper than last year despite coming off a year with a 3.86 ERA. He is SP40 in the average NFBC draft. And that’s not far from right. But not every draft is an NFBC draft, so there’s a very good chance you can get Pepiot cheaper than this in your league. And even at ADP 150, I love the guy. I’d take him over several guys who are priced higher than him. I think the floor is very strong, and he has more ceiling than a lot of people will think.
FISH: YANDY DIAZ
Yandy’s ADP has been a roller coaster. Or a bouncing ball, or something.
His OPS by year:
2021: .740
2022: .824
2023: .932
2024: .755
2025: .848
So the ADP has been following the production. And yeah, that makes a lot of sense. But we’re probably heading back to a .750 OPS in 2026 as they return to this tough park. His 25 homers last year were a career high, and I think he’s set to lose at least five on that total.
The main reason for not buying this price, though, is that he’s old (34) and we don’t think the Rays will score many runs this year. Diaz’s appeal has long been OBP (which doesn’t matter in standard roto league) and counting stats since he gets on base a ton at the top of the Rays lineup. This is the worst lineup the Rays have had, probably in his career, so it’s all pointing downward for Yandy. Don’t take the bait.
Is "bust" worse than a "fish'?