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Weather
All looks good for this seven-game early slate.
Game Data
STL/ATH
This series has been the one to target for us this week. The park factor really hasn’t shown up yet. The HR per ball in play rate is 4.9% this year, which is the fifth-highest in the league. The HR/Brl% is 43%, which is in the middle of the league. But nothing has changed there; it’s a good place to hit, and we’ll have some warmer temperatures there with two pretty bad pitchers going.
Or at least I’d say that Michael McGreevy is bad. But maybe I should just #StopHate. McGreevy has a 0.86 WHIP and a 2.18 ERA. His BABIP is .200, his LOB% is 87.5%, his HR/FB is 13%. He’s one of the luckiest pitchers on the year.
But he does have some of those things that seem to “create luck” (which is impossible definitionally, but you get it). He’s throwing seven different pitches and has a good changeup. That seems to be the recipe for beating the indicators.
The smart money would be on the Athletics to break the lucky streak here for him and do some damage.
WASH / CIN
No other team has an implied total over five on this slate. The second-best we have is the Reds against Foster Griffin, who has pitched great this year.
There’s not a clear stacking team, which makes the slate pretty fun.
Matchups to exploit
Zebby Matthews vs. Marlins: Zebby has fiven up nine homers in 34.1 innings this year in AAA with a 22% K%. He’s been hit around and the strikeouts aren’t there, either. He gets the call for his season debut today, and the Marlins find themselves in a good spot.
Brewers vs. Griffin Canning: Kinda shocked the Brewers didn’t get an implied total over five with Yelich, Chourio, and Vaughn back against Canning. I’m going to take a pause and go bet their team total (over 4.5 +114). Canning has been fine in two starts, but we’re not buying it like the books are.
Astros vs. Luis Castillo: I guess they aren’t doing the piggyback thing with Miller/Castillo yet; it’s a six-man rotation for now, which clears the runway for Castillo to get to another traditional starter here. He’s been crushed by both righties (.387 xwOBA) and lefties (.357), and his K% is down below 21%.