This could have been a big-time showdown in Dallas. But the Bucs come in at 0-4 and have Baker Mayfield missing another game after the injury.
We have Dallas as an 8.5-point favorite at home. The O/U is 47.5. So the implied score is Cowboys 28, Bucs 19.5. Let’s get into both teams.
The Cowboys opened at 9.5 and briefly went to 10, but it’s down to 8.5 now. There’s a “line movement” option on the app, which is sometimes useful.
The total has held steady at 47.5.
Cowboys Side
It hasn’t been pretty for Dallas, but they find themselves at 2-2 with a great chance to achieve a winning record again with this soft matchup.
→ Offense Grade: 99
→ Defense Grade: 83
These grades adjust for strength of schedule. It uses yards per play and adjusts for their matchups. So we’re not just looking at how Dallas has moved the ball overall on a per-play average, but taking that and adjusting it for what the defenses they’ve faced have allowed through their season so far. It’s still not a perfect way to do it, but it gives us a quick idea of the strength of each team on both sides of the ball. Four games in, we’re getting some decent data now, but these won’t be truly reliable numbers probably for a few more weeks.
The Cowboys are at a +4.1 PROE. They have averaged 3.8 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Their defense doesn’t do them a lot of favors, so they’re playing in high-scoring games weekly.
→ Week 1: 20-28 loss vs. NYG
→ Week 2: 37-20 win vs. WAS
→ Week 3: 31-34 loss vs. BAL
→ Week 4: 34-30 win vs. TEX
That’s a whole bunch of points, but they’ve played some good offenses so far. It will be on Bucs undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels to push the Cowboys tonight. This is the softest matchup the Cowboys defense has had. If the Bucs really struggle tonight, it probably won’t be because of what the Cowboys do defensively, but more because they have a QB out there who has little business starting NFL games at this point. The guy went to Kansas, and he didn’t play basketball. So that tells you a lot.
Dak Prescott has thrown it 151 times this year, 38 times per game - the 9th-most in the NFL. The target share data:
CeeDee Lamb saw 21 targets last week in one of the highest-volume pass-catcher games you’ll see. It’s not going to get that crazy tonight, but Lamb is the clear #1 target with that target share and an elite 3.58 yards per route run.
The ADoT on Lamb is 10.0 yards, so he’s doing both short and long stuff. George Pickens is more of the deep man with a 12.1-yard ADoT. Pickens has run nine slot routes all year (Flournoy 67, Ferguson 54, Lamb 46). So his floor is pretty low even though he’s averaged seven targets per game. He’s just not running those high-value PPR routes where they scheme the ball to him in space and let him run with it. But he’s one of the game’s elite downfield options and we saw that last week with 50+ yard catch. He’s also not found the endzone yet, having just three red zone targets (Lamb 7, Ferguson 4, Williams 3, Pickens 3, Turpin 1).