Our first ugly TNF game of the season. It’s the hapless Falcons going into Green Bay. I was surprised to see this one at just a 4.5-point spread.
But there’s a new QB under center for the Falcons as they return their preferred starter Michael Penix Jr. after playing Cooper Rush (-0.64 EPA) and Jack Strand (-0.76 EPA).
So that’s an upgrade and a welcome sign for you Bijan Robinson and Drake London owners. But don’t get your hopes up too high. Penix last year posted a 7.2 YPA with a 9:3 TD:INT and a +0.02 EPA in nine games. He’s quite possibly one of the worst starting QBs in the league, but that would still be a massive step up from what they got in the first couple of weeks.
Falcons Side
It’s pretty tough to judge an offense on two games played by those QBs. They’ve run it 43% of the time despite trailing for most all of their two games. They’re at a -8% PROE, so even accounting for that scoreboard, they haven’t wanted to throw the ball. And why would they, when they have Rush/Strand at QB and Bijan Robinson at running back?