Using xwOBA OE To Spot Hitter Breakouts
We dive into the expected wOBA over expectation data
I’ve made some stats up over the years here, and one of the better ones, I think, is this xwOBA OE metric. You can, and should, read it about it here:
Modeling & Predicting Expected xwOBA
I have coded up a little machine learning model that grades pitches by their movement and location, and then shows the scores as a predicted xwOBA. So, basically, it looks at each individual pitch (its movement and location) and then looks at the history of pitches most like it and then sees how things usually turn out on those pitches.
The details are in that post. Essentially, it compares the xwOBA value a hitter generated with the expectation for the type of pitch (movement and location) they saw on that batted ball event. So you get less credit for hitting a rocket on a meatball than you do if you drive one 111mph into the gap on a well-executed pitch.
Truth being told, once you get to a certain sample size, xwOBA and xwOBA OE basically line up evenly.
So we’re not doing much more than just showing you the xwOBA leaders. But doing that is pretty useful, so we aren’t wasting our time regardless. Just to continue to show this point, here is everybody above a +0.07 xwOBA OE last year:
Jahmai Jones is the only surprising name there, but he’s only there because I limited this to just 100 PAs. That guy hardly played. But shout out to that guy:
But I’m determined to rummage through the data and find some interesting names to dive into. So let’s talk about some upside hitters for power.
Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins
ADP: 130 | xwOBA: .387 | OE: +0.060
This isn’t a surprising name if you paid attention last year. But I just want to re-hash (it’s been HASHED already in the Marlins preview) that Stowers power production was legit last season.
He was in elite company with all of the metrics you like to look at to predict home runs:
The one concern is the lack of contact. His strikeout rate was above 27%, and his zone contact rate was awful at 75.3%. I could see that ballooning to a 30% K%, and that makes things pretty tough. But I have no trouble believing he can be a 35-homer guy if he stays healthy next year.
Dominic Canzone, Seattle Mariners
ADP: 328 | xwOBA: .382 | OE: +0.050
Canzone probably isn’t going to play every day for the M’s. He’s a defensive liability and doesn’t handle left-handed pitching very well. They’ve also recently signed platoon specialist Rob Refsnyder, who will be in there every day against lefties. So you’re looking at 120-130 starts for Canzone. But when he’s in there, you want him in your fantasy lineups, because all he does is mash.
Canzone Career Splits
vs. RHP: 114 wRC+, .454 SLG
vs. LHP: 81 wRC+, .295 SLG
He’s not a young prospect anymore at the age of 28, but he’s proven (in my eyes at least) to be well worth a spot on the 26-man roster and to be in there every time a right handed pitcher takes the hill against you.
If you’re in a standard(ish) fantasy league (400 or so players drafted?) where you have to set one lineup per week, you won’t regret fading Canzone. But he’s a good late-round target in deep leagues and/or in those spots where you can set your lineup daily.
Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays
ADP: 189 | xwOBA: .389 | OE: +0.048
The king of line drives! I really don’t think Aranda will hit many homers next year (going back to the Trop), and he’s the most primed for batting average regression hitter in the league.
But it’s not like he’s going to hit for a bad batting average. His xBA was .294, one of the highest marks in the league.
There’s a long way he can regress before he’s hitting below .280 (98th percentile sweet spot, 96th percentile hard hit). He’s a talented hitter and one of the more unique profiles you’ll find.
All of the xModels love him to be a productive hitter next year, and the +0.047 in the xwOBA OE model is another vote of confidence.
Dillon Dingler, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 212 | xwOBA: .360 | OE: +0.047
Dingler may be one of the most underrated catchers in the game. He took over for Jake Rogers last year and was great with the bat. By OPS, he was the Tigers’ fourth-best hitter. By xwOBA, he was their #2. By xBA, he was their best.
Catchers are finicky. They’re the least reliable position by far as far as year-to-year hitting consistency goes, but I’d be more than fine having Dingler on a fantasy roster this year. I’d still rather have one of the guys who plays first or DHs a lot, because the extra playing time is huge. But if I’m down below the top couple of tiers in catchers, I’m looking for Dingler every time.
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