Wednesday Night DFS Slate Breakdown
Going through the Wednesday night games to find the best spots for DFS and prop betting
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Weather
I guess the rain is just done. Maybe we’ll just never see rain again, and we will all die. That would at least be fun for a few weeks. It makes the DFS slates a lot easier as we don’t have to take guesses and gambles on what games might not run their course.
Game Data
We’re looking at the nine-game night slate only now. There are two clear lines of demarcation on this one, implied-totals wise.
Dodgers vs. Gallen
They’re head and shoulders above the field. Gallen’s been hit hard all year long with a .354 xwOBA. He has a 9.2% K-BB% to boot. So he’s bad in most facets of the art of pitching. His four-seamer has a 2.8% SwStr% with a .379 xwOBA. He’s in real trouble tonight against this Dodgers lineup that has a huge .355 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this year.
Reds vs. Kolek
Elly is on the IL, which hurts the Reds lineup but does give us cheaper options from which to stack.
Kolek threw the CGSO two starts ago and garnered some foolish interest in the fantasy game. But for the year, he has a 10.7% K-BB% with a 4.46 JA ERA. To his credit, he has a 48% GB% with just four homers allowed this year on a .287 xwOBA. But he’s one of the lowest strikeout rate pitchers you’ll find (15.7% this year) and that should help the Reds pile up some hits against him.
Angels vs. Lorenzen
The Halos laid an egg against Sugano, but there’s another game with the Rockies here, so we’re going back to the well. Lorenzen has given up ten homers with a .370 xwOBA and a 46.5% Hard Hit% allowed. His 9% SwStr% and 45% GB% show that he’s a guy you can score on in multiple ways. Piling hits together and delivering the big blow through the four-bagger.
The Angels splits have normalized now. They’re at a .312 xwOBA against righties and .310 against lefties, with home run rates that match almost perfectly. It’s another great spot for the cheap Angels.
Cubs vs. Springs
The winds are allegedly going sideways in this one. So that’s a wash. Springs has given up 12 homers with a 13.4% K-BB% this year. He’s been fine. But he’s been worse in the last month with a .335 xwOBA and a 4.05 JA ERA, giving up a homer to every 19 batters he’s faced.
Righties are the target for the Cubs. Six homers and a .357 xwOBA over the last 30 days for them with a super low 27% GB%. So that’d mean Hoerner, Bregman, Suzuki, Happ, Kelly, and Swanson. And they’re all quite cheap.
Brewers vs. Webb
The books love the Brewers, man! They’re sixth in the league in run scoring and their lineup is fully healthy, so I guess that makes sense.
But are we really trying to target Logan Webb now? He still has a 58% GB% this year with just four homers allowed, even though this has easily been his worst season. I’m not going here. I believe in Webb’s abilities, and how couldn’t you? We shouldn’t be changing our minds on a guy like this just because he’s had nine sorta-bad starts.
Pirates vs. Arrighetti
This is the most interesting spot of the night. Arrighetti has a 1.34 ERA this year with a 7-1 record. But he has a 4.76 SIERA. It’s funny stuff, man. One of the luckiest SP runs you will ever see.
He has a 13.1% BB% with a 21.7% K%. A .210 BABIP, an 89% Strand Rate, a 3.9% HR/FB (FanGraphs version).
The Pirates are hitting .257/.342/.416 against righties this year with a .330 xwOBA. That’s the third-best OPS in the league. Arrighetti is going to need that luck to continue tonight to have a chance, baby!
Braves vs. Corbin
Corbin has a 4.55 JA ERA with a .357 xwOBA this year. Hitters have a .286 xBA against him. He has a 9.7% Swstr% and a 42% GB%. So he’s someone to target. I’m surprised the Braves are this far down on the list.
They are much better against righties, so maybe that’s working against them:
→ vs. RHP: .266/.330/.449, .346 xwOBA
→ vs. LHP: .247/.312/.411, .314 xwOBA
I guess that matters quite a bit. Only Drake Baldwin has a high OPS against lefties, and he’s still on the shelf. Olson does have a big .362 xwOBA and six homers (19 PA/HR), and Acuna is red hot right now. So I could go to those two and fill in with some cheaper pieces around them.