Week 10 NFL DFS Slate Breakdown
A breakdown of the upcoming Sunday NFL DFS slate, with an emphasis on putting together a single high-floor lineup on DraftKings.
Progress Update
Check out the week nine lineup review for an update on my progress.
Quick Links
View this post in a browser, and you’ll see all of the links to the individual games.
Patriots vs. Bears
Bills vs. Colts
Vikings vs. Jaguars
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Falcons vs. Saints
49ers vs. Bucs
Steelers vs. Commanders
Titans vs. Chargers
Jets vs. Cardinals
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Slate Overview
This is one of the toughest slates of the year. It could get easier if some of these questionable guys go to doubtful on Friday. I found enough plays to make a decent lineup with, but I do not see this as a slate that really favors the “play the obvious plays” approach. We’ll have to get some luck here, maybe even more than usual.
Patriots vs. Bears
Game Environment
O/U: 39.5
Spread: Bears -6.5We start with a poor game environment. We have two capable defenses and two poor offenses. To add to that, we don’t have any injury situations to take advantage of, so I doubt we will end up on any plays, but let’s take a quick look.
Quarterbacks
Drake Maye ($5,800) has put up some decent fantasy numbers early on, and he even ran for 95 yards last week. However, the Bears are the best defense in the league against quarterbacks (scored on fantasy points allowed per snap), so we can’t choose Maye this week.
Caleb Williams ($5,600) has now scored fewer than ten points in two games since looking somewhat good in a two-week span from weeks 5-6. Both guys are easy fades.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift ($6,500) is at a season-high in price, but he’s earned it. This is also a decent matchup for him as the touchdown favorite. The Patriots have allowed the seventh-most rush attempts per game and have given up 4.5 yards per carry. The price and upside don’t really seem to justify the play, but I’ll put Swift on the list. With just ten games on the board and not a ton of big injuries to react to, I have to put some extra guys on the list.
Pass Catchers
With everybody healthy on both sides and such spotty QB play, we can’t play any pass catchers from this game. That’s pretty clear.
Recaps/Targets
It’s only D’Andre Swift for me this time.
Bills vs. Colts
Game Environment
O/U: 47
Spread: Bills -4This is a pretty nice game environment here. The Colts are back with Joe Flacco, which makes the fantasy angle of their games a lot more interesting.
Quarterbacks
I really don’t think we can justify paying a big tag for a guy like Josh Allen ($7,700), but I’m going to add him to the list. The Colts can score some points, and they play very fast - and that could open things up for a monster game from JA.
Joe Flacco ($5,500) is cheap, but he showed us that floor last week with just 179 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. The Bills are also pretty good against the pass. It’s not the worst play imaginable, but I do not think it will prove to be nearly good enough.
Running Backs
I can’t get behind Jonathan Taylor ($7,500) or James Cook ($7,000) at these prices.
Pass Catchers
Josh Downs ($6,200) has a 30% target share from Joe Flacco with a 29-266-2 line on a 6.4 ADoT. He’s a very good option. Michael Pittman ($6,000) has just 23 targets from Flacco to Downs’ 38, so I think the play is clearly Downs here.
On the Bills side, there could be some value with both Amari Cooper ($5,800) and Keon Coleman ($5,500) questionable. That would bring a bunch of targets to Khalil Shakir ($6,000) and Dalton Kincaid ($4,900). I would probably prefer the punt option like Mack Hollins ($3,300) if they are both out. I do think Cooper will play, however, so I’m pretty much off this passing game until further notice.
Recaps/Targets
I like the Josh Downs idea, but that’s all I can see here.
Paywall time! Become a paid subscriber to get the rest of this post along with everything else that goes on here.