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Packers vs. Bears
Jaguars vs. Lions
Raiders vs. Dolphins
Rams vs. Patriots
Browns vs. Saints
Ravens vs. Steelers
Vikings vs. Titans
Colts vs. Jets
Falcons vs. Broncos
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Chiefs vs. Bills
Slate Overview
Packers vs. Bears
Game Environment
O/U: 41.5 Spread: Packers -6.5
The Bears’ defense can be beaten on the ground (4.8 yards per carry allowed), and the Packers are worse against the pass (7.3 yards per attempt), but both defenses are fine. The Packers are the big favorite because the Bears just have not done much on offense this year, averaging 4.2 yards per play, the second-worst mark in the league.
The way to attack this game, if anything, would be with the Packers backfield and any value that pops up to injury. As of now, there is nobody of relevance on the injury report. So, I don’t see much to love in this game.
Quarterbacks
Pass.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs ($7,100) is the play I’d consider, but it’s pretty tough to consider him after seeing this price. Despite their mediocre yards per carry allowed, the Bears have managed to allow the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in the whole league. Jacobs is solid, but not nearly a good enough play to justify the price.
D’Andre Swift ($6,600) is also at a new maximum in price. With the Bears inability to consistently score points, he’s easy to leave off the list.
Pass Catchers
The Packers are a capable offense, but they spread the ball around too much to generate solid plays.
If I had to guess at one, it’s pretty obvious to take Romeo Doubs ($5,500). He leads the team in targets over these last three games and is affordable, but I don’t see any chance anybody looks optimal after we review all 11 games.
The Bears also share targets pretty evenly between their three guys, and putting that on top of their overall offensive inabilities - they’re easy to ignore.
So there are not plays in this game, not a big surprise.
Recap/Targets
Nothing.
Jaguars vs. Lions
Game Environment
O/U: 48 Spread: Lions -13
I believe this is the widest spread of the year. The Lions are clearly top two or three team in the league, and the Jaguars could very well be the worst team right now with Trevor Lawrence out. This should be a Lions smash.
Quarterbacks
Mac Jones ($4,900) has that “QB under $5,000” appeal, but we saw what he could do last week as he scored all of 8.4 fantasy points on 22 attempts, and he only got there thanks to a rushing touchdown. We can’t possibly risk that floor, even in a situation where he should have to throw it a bunch.
On the other side, this is looking like one of those games where Jared Goff ($6,300) only has to throw it 15-20 times. He’s been under 20 attempts twice already this year, and I think that would be what he’d do every week in the Lions’ perfect world. Pass on both QBs.
Running Backs
This is a clear spot for the Lions to dominate on the ground. They still have this split going on between Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,300) and David Montgomery ($6,500). That has prevented me from playing either guy all year, but if there was ever a spot to use Montgomery - it’s this one. He should get to at least 15 carries here with a couple of targets and a very, very good chance at finding the endzone. I’ll add him to the list.
We have a potential play on the Jaguars side if Tank Bigsby ($5,600) sits out. Travis Etienne ($6,300) would then get his full-time job back and would be in play as a pass-catching back that would probably pile up 4-6 targets. That is still a pretty high price to pay for someone on such a bad offense, so I don’t think I’ll get there - but I’ll put him on the list with Montgomery.
Pass Catchers
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000) has a nice floor, but I don’t think the ceiling is there in a game we expect the Lions to completely control. Sam LaPorta ($4,300) is questionable as of right now. That could potentially open up a punt option in Brock Wright ($3,300) - but he’s not much of a pass catcher, so I don’t think we’d get there regardless.
The targets last week with Mac Jones under center: Engram (8), Davis (4), Thomas (3), Strange (2), Farrell (2), Etienne (1).
Evan Engram ($5,200) continues to be the preferred target, but he has turned 19 targets into just 11-85-0 in the last two weeks. I’ll put him on the list, but he’s low-priority.
Recap/Targets
Leaning into the Lions smash, the play would be David Montgomery. I will also consider Travis Etienne if Bigsby misses. And Evan Engram also goes on the list. All of that said, I am guessing none of the three make it into my lineup. Both offenses give their players low floors, albeit for opposite reasons.
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