This is going to be a snoozer. The Panthers are a mess, and the Chiefs are possibly returning Isiah Pacheco, which could complicates the one part of their offense we might want to attack.
Quarterbacks
Easy to pass on QBs.
Running Backs
As I said in the intro, the Chiefs backfield would certainly be interesting as a ten-point favorite against a bad defense, but it figures to be a split between Kareem Hunt ($5,700) and Isiah Pacheco ($6,200) if Pacheco is active. The team has been non-commital on Pacheco so far, so it is possible we get one more full-time game from Hunt, and that would be a near lock play with his price having dropped to accomodate Pacheco. We have been looking for mis-prices all year, and this is the definition of one, if Pacheco doesn’t return.
Chuba Hubbard ($6,600) has had a great season, but the Chiefs defense is brutal against the run, and the Panthers do not figure to score many points, so we can’t pay that price for.
Pass Catchers
The Chiefs shouldn’t have trouble scoring a few touchdowns in this one, but the ceiling is really capped since they’ll probably run a ton in this one. We saw Mahomes spread it around last week, here were his targets in that Bills game: Worth (5), Gray (5), Kelce (4), Perine (4), Hopkins (4), Hardman (3). That’s tough to take. Travis Kelce ($5,800) has a 27% TPRR and a 29% Tgt% since week six. I think we can play him, and I’ll put him on the list, but I don’t figure he will turn out optimal this week. Xavier Worthy ($5,000) got more involved last week, running the most routes on the team and going for his best total (17 DraftKings points) since week one. The floor is still basically zero with the guy, especially with Hopkins and Hardman getting looks, so I’m not going to be using him even at the nice price of $5,000.
The Panthers should be passing it a good bit in this one, but I do think they’ll really struggle to move and hold the ball, so there aren’t any safe plays on this offense. Jalen Coker ($3,700) does have 11 targets in his last two games (5-77-0), so I can add him to the bottom of the list just in case we desperately need a play that can grab up 5-10 points at that price. But that’s it.
Recap/Targets
Hunt is a lock for me if Pacheco sits out. I have begun my list with him, as well as lower-priority targets in Kelce and Coker.
Vikings vs. Bears
Game Environment
O/U: 39.5 Spread: Vikings-3.5
Both of these teams have what we must consider below-average offenses. The Bears have averaged just 4.3 yards per play this year (second-worst). The Vikings are at 5.4, which is in the middle of the pack, but they have struggled recently, averaging just 19 points in their last four games.
The Bears defense is beatable at 5.5 yards per play allowed and 7.4 per pass attempt, but this total doesn’t excite me.
Quarterbacks
Easy pass on Darnold and Wiliams.
Running Backs
The Vikings are one of the league’s better run defenses, and the Bears can’t be trusted for touchdowns - so I can’t go there.
Aaron Jones ($6,400) has also been pretty volatile and hasn’t had a game you wanted to have at this price since week seven. He’s only had two games over 20 points this year, so I don’t think he’s the right play.
Pass Catchers
Justin Jefferson ($8,100) is usually in play, and I’d say we can use him this week if we have a bunch of cash. He’s scored just 10 and 14 points in his last two, so that has plummeted the price:
I can get behind that, but I will have to have found several value plays to get there. He’s going on the list, and we’ll evaluate him again once the player pool is completed.
T.J. Hockenson ($4,200) did not see the ball much last week. His snap shares for the last three weeks: 46%, 46%, 45%. That’s held steady, but he ran just 21 routes last week (Jefferson led the team with 37). The price has fallen to a point where I could get into it, but the play is not without some risk.
I’ll add Hockenson to the list. That does it for this game; the Bears are too inefficient and too spread out to consider.
Recap/Targets
Jefferson and Hockenson go on the list due to their reduced prices.
Titans vs. Texans
Game Environment
O/U: 42 Spread: Texans -8
The Texans have a healthy offense again, and they showed that Monday Night by dropping 34 on the Cowboys.
The Titans are a bottom-five offense by most measures, averaging just 4.6 yards per play. They play slow (29th in pace) and run a ton (-8% PROE). That takes a bunch of plays away from their opponents, and they have allowed just 60 plays against per game, that’s the fifth-fewest in the league.
It’s not a great game environment.
Quarterbacks
I have been extremely good at picking QBs this year, so I’m going to cut through the guys I just know aren’t going to make it into consideration - and that is both of these QBs.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard ($5,800) has shown us his floor lately. He has run it just 18 times for 59 yards in his last two games. There will be better games ahead, but with the Titans struggling to score points. His backup, Tyjae Spears, has taken three carries in each of the last two games, cutting slightly into Pollard’s role. Spears is in the concussion protocol, so Pollard could be a bit more interesting if he misses. I’ll add him to the list, but I don’t expect to use him.
Joe Mixon ($8,000) had a huge Monday Night game, scoring three touchdowns and almost 40 fantasy points. His price was set before that game, but it’s still way up there. I don’t think he’s the proper play against a capable run defense. The Titans are easily a top-15 run defense. And Mixon has been on a sun run with touchdown scoring. He’s scored 11 touchdowns in eight games; I’m not betting on that kind of stuff continuing. I’m out.
Pass Catchers
We might have something here with Nico Collins ($7,600). He didn’t play 100% of the snaps on Monday, but he was in there enough to make us believe he’ll be back to full-time for this week. The price is still high, but it’s down $300 from its prior heights.
Calvin Ridley ($5,700) has a big role and a very high ceiling, and he’s down $500 for this matchup after a bit of a dud last week (he did have a 50-yard touchdown called back, though).
Since Hopkins departed, Ridley has averaged 9.5 targets and 150 air yards per game. I’m down for him in this spot, even with the lower floor, if he doesn’t snatch a long ball.
Recap/Targets
I like Ridley a good bit, and I’ve added Collins and Pollard to the list - but I don’t expect to use either guy in this pace-down matchup.
Lions vs. Colts
Game Environment
O/U: 50.5 Spread: Lions -7.5
The Lions are just so good. They put on a clinic last week against the Jags, and they are set for a big win in this spot. They also never have to play outside, which is remarkable. But the price tags are up after that drubbing, and Anthony Richardson is back for the Colts, which takes the shootout opportunity away,
Quarterbacks
You would’ve been happy playing pretty much any Lions player last week, including Jared Goff ($6,600), but I just can’t make the bet on hyper-efficiency for $6,600.
Anthony Richardson ($5,600) did score 29 DraftKings points last week with 272 passing yards and a 10-32-2 line on the ground. That performance did not cock his price up at all, which is surprising. He remains at $5,600.
The ceiling is certainly there with what he can do with his legs, but it’s a huge risk with how bad he is with his arm. He’s had games of 7, 5, 10, and 13 DraftKings points - and all of those would crush your lineup. Can’t do it.
Running Backs
Both Detroit RBs paid off last week. David Montgomery ($6,700) ran for 75 yards and two touchdowns, and Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,300) racked up 123 total yards and a rushing touchdown.
There’s a pretty good chance at least one of these guys pays off this week. The Colts do play fast, and the Lions should be able to score a bunch of points again. I just don’t like the floor/ceiling enough since they split the work so much. They’ll even cede carries to the likes of Sione Vaki and Craig Reynolds when the game gets out of hand, which it so often does. I don’t think we can pay for either guy.
Pass Catchers
One of the best ways to spend some cash this week will be Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300). He’s scored at least 18 points in his last three games, with just two single-digit games all year, and he showed the ceiling last week even in a blowout when he went 11-161-2.
It’s a big price to pay for a wide receiver in an offense that is unlikely to be pushing the ball in the second half, but I don’t hate it. Pushing that button could be a nice little warmup for Thanksgiving, when we’ll inevitably be clicking it into our Turkey Day lineup.
Josh Downs ($6,200) had a nice game with Richardson last week, but it’s too risky to try it again. I will not be going to the Colts at all, I just think a 36-3 spanking is too likely to consider spending money on Indy.
Recap/Targets
I doubt I play anybody, and it always sucks to not like anybody on the slate’s highest-projected-scoring offense, but that’s what the Lions continue to do to us. I’ve added Amon-Ra to the list just in case I want to lock in those targets at the high price tag.
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