The Jets defense has played well this year. They are now allowing a league-best 4.6 yards per play. That’s 6.9 per pass attempt and 4.1 per rush. They are not a defense to target with plays. The Dolphins are still slightly appealing because of the two big names they have that can smash in any matchup and the fact that there won’t be any weather issues in Miami.
The Dolphins present a pretty much neutral matchup.
Quarterbacks
There’s no sense in going to either QB here.
Running Backs
De’Von Achane ($8,200) is finally priced where he should be. Since week eight, when Tua returned, he has 68 rushes and 38 targets, and he’s scored 20+ points in each game but one. He saw nine targets last week and has averaged 6.3 with Tua back. Given the matchup and the price, I can’t call him a lock, but he’ll be once again in the player pool.
Breece Hall ($7,000) is on the other side and does have a better matchup here. His role is strong, but the Jets’ offensive woes have kept his fantasy point production in check. He’s been under 15 fantasy points in four of his last five. That’s not the kind of floor we’re looking for with an expensive running back. I’ll still put him on the list as a back we can afford and project for 15+ touches, including a few catches.
Pass Catchers
Looking at the Jets numbers since Davante Adams ($6,700) joined the team:
Garrett Wilson ($6,600) has the upside role, while Adams is a bit safer. Both guys are priced appropriately. I could see playing Adams as a safe source of 10+ points, but it doesn’t excite me.
On the Miami side, Tyreek Hill ($7,100) has seen his price stabilize in the low-7K range. But for whatever reason, he has not had the ceiling this year. He has not had a 100+ yard receiving game since week one. He gets 5-7 targets per game. I’d call him touchdown-dependent, which has never been the case for the guy. I don’t think we can play the guy.
Jonnu Smith ($5,300) has arguably been the Dolphins’ top weapon through the air of late. His last three games:
That’s pretty convincing. You could even say that the price tag is still too low. But I’m not completely sold on it because this elite role is pretty new. I worry that it’s a result of some randomness, and he’ll come back down to 4-6 lower-value targets. He’s on the list, though!
Recaps/Targets
I don’t see any “lock” plays, but I have thrown Achane, Adams, and Smith into the pool.
Falcons vs. Vikings
Game Environment
O/U: 45.5 Spread: Vikings -5.5
The Falcons’ defense has been beatable this year, but they are more in the middle of the pack in yards per play and fantasy points allowed. They aren’t a defense to specifically target, but they are far from one to avoid. Minnesota is about the same.
Quarterbacks
I suppose you could make the case for Sam Darnold ($6,100). He’s right around $6K, which is where I want to be for a QB, and the floor has been fine. He’s gone above 17 fantasy points in six of his last seven, with only two real dud games all year long. He doesn’t have much ceiling, but I’ll let his floor get him in the pool.
Running Backs
The Vikings have been airing it out lately (third in PROE over the last five games), and Aaron Jones has been giving up some work to Cam Akers, so I can’t go near him.
On the other side, we have Bijan Robinson ($7,500) who is having a fantastic season. He’s averaging 16.1 carries and 4.7 targets per game. That’s an elite role, a fine matchup, and an affordable price. He’s on the list.
Pass Catchers
It hasn’t been the greatest recent stretch for Justin Jefferson ($7,800). He has 48, 81, 27, and 99 receiving yards in his last four games and hasn’t really paid off this price tag since week nine. That doesn’t mean he can’t smash here, and I’m interested in him against this defense in the dome.
Jordan Addison ($5,300) has been stealing the touchdowns from JJ. He’s scored three times since Jefferson’s last touchdown. He has shown a low floor (4-54-0 last week with just four out of ten games over 10 points), so I don’t think we can play him.
T.J. Hockenson ($4,300) has been up-and-down this year. He has scored 6, 15, 3, 21, and 6 fantasy points in his five games. He’s not trustworthy, but it’s a high-upside role for what he costs. He’s earned a 19% target share and a very good 23% TPRR since returning. I’ll throw him on the list.
Drake London ($6,400) is the guy to play on the Falcons side once again. He’s seen 13, 7, and 16 targets over the last three games and leads the team with a 28% target share and a 27% TPRR on the year. He’s a very strong play in this good game environment.
Recaps/Targets
There are plenty of plays to consider in this one. Darnold, Bijan, London, Hockenson, and Jefferson have made the player pool.
Saints vs. Giants
Game Environment
O/U: 41 Spread: Saints -4.5
This is the second-lowest total on the slate, but we do have some injury situation to look into. It’s looking like Drew Lock will make the start for the Giants, and the Taysom Hill injury makes a difference on the Saints side.
Quarterbacks
Drew Lock ($4,700) is very cheap and did score 17 fantasy points in his first start on Thanksgiving. He only threw it for 178 yards in that one on a poor 5.6 YPA, but he ran for 57 yards (although that was buoyed by one long run). He’s not the worst play in the world against a pretty bad defense, but the floor is extremely low. I’d prefer Levis or Winston at slightly higher prices.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara ($8,000) is once again going on the list. He gets a projection boost with Taysom Hill out. That takes away those projected rush attempts (and especially red zone attempts) from Hill and gives at least most of them to Kamara. Let’s take a look at Alvin’s last five games.
We can lock in 15+ carries and 5+ targets for Kamara with Hill out. The ceiling is a 30-touch game, and he can finally find the endzone (which he hasn’t done since week six); he’ll likely smash even at this elevated price tag. This is a great matchup for the Saints. The Giants have allowed 5.1 yards per carry, they’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs.
We have to choose between Barkley and Kamara on this slate, but for the $1,000 savings, I’m leaning towards Kamara.
Pass Catchers
I’m off the Giants’ side of things. The Saints tight end situation has changed with Hill out. Both Foster Moreau ($3,100) and Juwan Johnson ($3,400) are marked as questionable. If one of them is out, the other guy would be pretty interesting. If they’re both in, it’s kind of hard to determine who will play more. Johnson ran more routes last week, but Moreau did the prior week.
I’d be happy to play Moreau if Johnson is out, but if they’re both in - I don’t think I’ll go there.
Recaps/Targets
It’s all Kamara for me, and then maybe one of Moreau or Johnson if one of them is out.
Panthers vs. Eagles
Game Environment
O/U: 46 Spread: Eagles -12
This is a dream spot for the Eagles. They are implied for 29 points, the highest on the slate. The Panthers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per snap this year and the fourth-most overall. Their biggest weakness is against running backs. They have allowed 370 fantasy points to opposing RBs this year, the most in the league, and they have allowed 4.85 yards per carry to RBs.
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young ($5,200) is extremely cheap and has put up two very good fantasy scores (for this price) the last two games.
I still can’t forget about some of these disastrous games he’s had (three points in week two, 11 points in week nine, twelve points in week 10), but I can say that Young is a punt QB play to consider this week. He will certainly have to throw it 30+ times again here, as we expect the Eagles to score a bunch of points. Even at just $4,700 - it’s a risky play, but I like it.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley ($9,000) has been pushed to a new max price for this matchup.
That sucks. At $8,000, he would have been a lock. I don’t think I can call any $9,000 player a lock, but Barkley’s floor/ceiling is extremely appealing here. This is the best spot he’ll be in all year, I think.
Chuba Hubbard ($6,200) is off the board since Jonathon Brooks ($4,700) is now active and taking reps away.
Pass Catchers
I could see playing DeVonta Smith ($5,800) in this spot. He has reached a minimum in price, and this is a soft matchup. I don’t think the floor/ceiling is fantastic since the Eagles likely won’t have to throw very much, but this price is very appealing, assuming he gets healthy.
Dallas Goedert is going to miss this game. That opens up some opportunity for Grant Calcaterra ($3,500). Goedert missed four games in the middle of the season. During that time, Calcaterra did this:
→ Week 6 vs. CLE: 23 routes, 4-67-0 → Week 7 vs. NYG: 19 routes, 1-5-0 → Week 8 vs. CIN: 18 routes, 3-58-0 → Week 9 vs. JAX: 30 routes, 5-30-0
He probably needs a touchdown to really smash, even at the low price, and the floor is still basically zero, but he’s a viable punt play if you really need someone this cheap.
Recaps/Targets
I have some interest in Bryce Young as a cheap QB. Barkley is certainly going on the list, but his price tag might be too prohibitive to get to, and I’ve also added the two cheaper Eagles passing game options to the list in DeVonta Smith and Grant Calcaterra.
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