Week 15 NFL DFS Slate Breakdown
A breakdown of the upcoming Sunday NFL DFS slate, with an emphasis on putting together a single high-floor lineup on DraftKings.
Progress Update
I’m coming off of a bad week. Check out the week 14 lineup review for an update on my progress.
Quick Links
View this post in a browser, and you’ll see all of the links to the individual games.
Slate Overview
Cowboys vs. Panthers
Game Environment
O/U: 43.5
Spread: Panthers -1There are twelve games to cover, and we start with a pretty interesting game. The total is low, but both defenses are pretty bad.
Quarterbacks
With 12 games to cover, I’m guessing we’ll find many better QBs than these two.
Running Backs
Rico Dowdle ($6,100) has become the featured back for the Cowboys. He has played 48 and 45 snaps in the last two weeks, while no other RB has reached ten in either game. He’s scored 24 and 18 points in those two games. This is a great matchup for the guy. He ripped off an 18-131-0 line on Monday night, and the price doesn’t account for that. He’s a great play.
On the other side, we have Chuba Hubbard ($6,500). With Jonathan Brooks out again, he gets his elite role back. He went 26-92-1 rushing last week while adding five targets. I like him less than Dowdle, but I like him nonetheless. I could definitely see playing a running back in this game.
Pass Catchers
I think CeeDee Lamb ($7,300) is fine at that price in this matchup, but the floor/ceiling just has not been there with Rush took over at QB. There are going to be a ton of options on this slate, so I’ll leave Lamb for someone else.
There’s nobody on the Panthers’ side, even with Bryce Young playing a bit better. They have spread it around, and I can’t trust them to score enough points.
Recap/Targets
It’s just the two RBs for me. I do think Dowdle is at least $500 too cheap. He’s my preferred play from this game.
Chiefs vs. Browns
Game Environment
O/U: 46
Spread: Chiefs -4We have a decent total, with the Browns being closer than you might have guessed (I guessed -6). It doesn’t feel like a game to get DFS plays from, but I can’t skip over it immediately.
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston ($5,500) has been good against bad defenses and not good against good defenses. The Chiefs aren’t a bad defense, but they have allowed their share of points to quarterbacks. They are 9th-worst in QB scoring against and have allowed 7.1 yards per attempt, around the league average. They are one of the tougher run defenses in the league, so we could be on our way to another big volume day from Winston. That puts him on the list for me, but I’m not crazy about the play, since the Chiefs always have a good chance of holding the ball for long periods of time and keeping the opposing offense on the sidelines (they rank seventh-best in plays run allowed per game at 62).
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco ($6,000) took the 14 of the 19 running back carries last week, so it’s safe to say he’s back to being the primary RB. However, it’s not a great matchup, and his passing game role has always been limited. I do not believe he’s a strong enough play.
Pass Catchers
Travis Kelce ($5,700) is a little too expensive for my liking. And he’s the main Chiefs guy, with 27% of the targets since week seven. The Chiefs are a fade.
Jerry Jeudy ($6,200) has established himself as Winston’s primary target in the WR room. He has a 23% target share with a 19% TPRR. David Njoku ($5,200) leads the team with a 24% target share since week eight and a 22% TPRR. He’s also a little bit more expensive than I like in this spot. So I don’t think I’m likely to go to anybody on either team.
Recap/Targets
As things stand right now, I am not interested in anybody in this game.
Dolphins vs. Texans
Game Environment
O/U: 47.5
Spread: Texans -3This is tied for the second-highest total on the board. The weather is not a concern in the dome, and these two teams are basically dead-even with that three-point spread favoring the home team. Interesting game!
Quarterbacks
I will not be going to either QB.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon ($7,800) had a down game in week 12, when he was finally held out of the endzone. But he bounced back up for a 20-101-1 line last week against Jacksonville, adding 4-18-0 on six targets. The role is great. He has been over 20 touches almost every game this year. The price takes away a lot of the appeal, and the Dolphins are a tougher run defense. That will put Mixon on the list, but probably not in my lineup.
DeVon Achane ($7,900) had another nice game last week in the tough Jets matchup. He added 14 carries and seven more targets to his season totals, but did struggle mightily with efficiency (1.7 yards per carry). This is an easier spot for him, and it’s tough not to really like the floor/ceiling he gives you with all of this passing game work. He’s back near the top of the list for this week.
Pass Catchers
Nico Collins ($8,100) is one of the best in the game. He has a sick 29% TPRR on the year with 3.4 yards per route run. That 3.4 mark leads the league by a ton (A.J. Brown is second at 2.9). Collins is in play weekly, and this is a really nice spot for him on the turf against an opposing offense that can score points. A Collins + Achane duo is a nice correlated pairing for huge upside.
Tyreek Hill ($7,400) has gotten going of late. He went 6-83-1 in week 13 and then put up a classic Tyreek line of 10-115-1 last week on 14 targets. So he’s shown that the upside is still there, and the price is at a lower point than usual. I’ll put him on the list. He is a pretty nice consolation price if we don’t have the $8,000+ money to spend.
Jonnu Smith ($5,400) had zero points last week in regulation. That shows you that it’s always tough to trust tight end roles. They can disappear quickly. I won’t be paying the $5,400 for him.
Recap/Targets
I like the high-priced players in this game. Collins, Achane, Hill, and Mixon have made the list, and that is the order I’m prioritizing them in.
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