DFS Lineup Review
I played one lineup again, strictly in double-ups. I really did not feel super great about it this week and was too locked into the baseball finals to worry about playing other lineups and tourneys. Here’s what it looked like:
It cashed easily in double ups, but not because it was a great lineup. I was completely bailed out by a 26-point explosion from the Panthers D. I liked htem fine against Rush, but no defense is ever a priority for me. It’s just whichever one that’s viable fits the rest of my lineup, so I was lucky this week that it ended up being that one.
Dalton Schultz was the chalk tight end for good reason. I didn’t think he had this kind of ceiling. He went 12-140-0 for 29 points. That was the other big difference-maker. I’ll take more credit for that play than the Panthers D play, but still - getting 29 points from a tight end puntish play is pretty lucky.
The priority for me this week was cramming three running backs in. I had Bijan, CMC, Henry, Javonte Willliams, and Aaron Jones on the list. I thought CMC was the best play of the bunch against the Dolphins, and figured he wouldn’t be super-highed owned either. He didn’t have a huge game, but two touchdowns helped a lot. And we didn’t get buried by Derrick Henry or Aaron Jones, so I feel fine about those RB choices.
The other difference maker on the lineup was getting to CeeDee Lamb. It wasn’t super easy to get an expensive WR this week, but my Carson Wentz play (which was bad) made it possible. And that paid off as Lamb went totally nuts for 38 points at mid-30s ownership.
The first mistake was Carson Wentz, who was playing in awful weather. My approach is always just to ignore the weather, but I didn’t even really look closely at it. It’s easy to say in hindsight, but a 9-3 Vikings win against the Bears seems to prove that the weather was a major issue. However, if I went up to Brock Purdy at QB, I’m not sure I would have ended up on Lamb.
The second mistake was DK Metcalf. The usage projection was elite, and he was so cheap for how many targets we thought he’d get and the big-play upside. And the 30% ownership was higher than I expected, so I wasn’t alone on the play. But I gave the Steelers offense way too much credit and probably didn’t get the cornerback matchup enough credit.
The nice thing about playing double-ups though is that it’s binary, baby! It’s double up or nothing. I could have scored 250 points and still won the same amount of money.
So hey, I’m two-for-two in cashing double ups, that’s a great start. Things will get tougher as the field thins out. The newcomers who come in and get beaten early on will stop playing. There will certainly be at least a handful of losing weeks this year, so we just have to keep the bankroll under control. Can’t start playing 2x the money just because you’ve won a couple in a row.
Injuries
I will cop the injury report from Establish The Run. My fantasy football approach is largely just to copy what those guys are doing, anyways.
BEARS
We’ll see Bears Tyson Bagent at QB for at least a game. From what I saw, it was a hamstring thing for Caleb, which could cost a few weeks but it’s not something that should be long-term, right? Obviously a massive downgrade to all Bears pieces in the meantime. We wouldn’t be docking them much for yesterday’s dud because of the weather, but certainly the quickest way to derail an offense is to end up with a bad QB in there.
The silver lining here is that at least Tyson Bagent has been with the team for a few years. To me, knowing how to run an offense and knowing the playbook really well is just as important, if not more, than raw talent when you’re filling in for a guy.
So it’s been a brutal start for Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and Rome Odunze. Loveland and Burden were guys you thought you were winning your league with when you made that click.
Burden: 8-95-0, 12 targets
Loveland: 1-3-0, 5 targets
To me, it’s a buy-low opportunity, provided you’re actually buying low, and you should be able to. Fantasy football players are fickle, and anybody sitting at 0-2 with Burden and Loveland heading into a game or two with Bagent at QB is probably about ready to panic.
COMMANDERS
Jayden Daniels is officially #injuryprone. A dislocated elbow this time. They have a competent backup in Marcus Mariota, who played a bunch last year. He had a 61% completion percentage last year with 7.4 yards per attempt. But about an even average EPA added and a poor 10:7 TD:INT. It’s not a total disaster for Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs. Neither guy inspired a ton of confidence from the start. But Diggs has been the guy to have there so far. He has a team-leading 15 targets and has scored three touchdowns already.
That Commanders defense looks pretty bad, so they’ll have to throw it, and at least you can hang your hat on Mariota being an NFL caliber QB. It could be a lot worse. And in deeper leagues, Mariota is a viable QB streamer with his running ability and knowledge of the offense. He fits the Jayden Daniels style pretty well so it’s an easier transition for their offense.
It sounds like Saquon Barkley and Jadarian Price should be fine, so not a huge waiver-wire priority this week on those backups. Tank Bigsby was one of the best handcuffs to steal this year. He would take a large percentage of Barkley’s role if he were ever the starter, and would definitely be an RB2 starter on your fantasy teams. I’d scoop him up if available, and I would have said that before this little Barkley injury anyways.
Panic Players
Some scary numbers from the first two games
Marvin Harrison Jr: 60 routes, three targets, 0.55 yards per route
Xavier Worthy: 70 routes, 13 targets, 0.61 YPRR
Courtland Sutton: 49 routes, 9 targets, 0.73 YPRR
DK Metcalf: 85 routes, 19 targets, 0.79 YPRR
MarShawn Lloyd: 19 attempts, 3 targets
JK Dobbins: 18 attempts, 0 targets
QB Play
THE BAD
We knew the Cooper Rush thing was trouble, and he played his way out of the role almost immediately. But they should get Michael Penix back very soon, and that can only be good news for Drake London (6-80-0 on 9 targets in two games) and Bijan Robinson. But it might not happen in week three, making London a dude you might not even want to start if it’s Jack Strand at QB again. I didn’t want any part of the Falcons offense this year personally, and this is why.
But if you can get a discount on Bijan or London, I’d consider that. It can’t get any worse than yesterday.
Aaron Rodgers also looks totally washed. He’s second-worst in average EPA to Rush now at -0.34. 59.5% completion rate, 5.2 YPA, 1:1 TD:INT. They can just blitz the dude all day and that’s what happened yesterday. The Steelers offense hasn’t done anything so far and Metcalf now has gone 8-67-0 on 19 targets. So that’s a double edged sword, or some expression that makes sense. They’re going to target Metcalf, and that will eventually turn into some decent games, but the efficiency is going to be rough. And it doesn’t help that he’s had several big-time drops already.
Slow start for Baker Mayfield as the third-worst QB in the league by EPA so far. 6.4 YPA, 1:1 TD:INT, -0.27 average EPA. They couldn’t score against the Browns yesterday, which was not expected. This Ted Hurst fellow is a potential add. He’s at 5-63-0 through two games on ten targets. Four guys have 10 or 11 targets for them:
Chris Godwin continues to look kinda washed, so it would take some excellent QB play to get him going. Maybe we’ll see Hurst end up as the WR2 behind Egbuka, who has done okay so far with an 8-79-1 line in two games.
There was also a massive storm there late in the game which jacked some stuff up, I’m sure. Mayfield is a decent QB, we’re not reacting much to two games, so it’s probably a decent buy-low on Egbuka, Irving, etc.
THE GOOD
The most efficient QB in the league through two games is Brock Purdy. The Dolphins defense is an easy one to beat, but man he was good yesterday with as many touchdowns as incompletions. Purdy now has a league-leading 0.5 EPA. He’s gone 45/56 for 492 yards and five touchdowns to one interception. Mike Evans predictably got hurt, but should be fine for next week as far as I can tell.
There are four major pieces in this pass attack:
They can spread it out and feed different guys every week. But good news overall for all of these guys. George Kittle is healthy for now and has gone 6-92-1 in two games despite being a bit limited in week one, I’d imagine. CMC has only 91 rushing yards through two games, but an encouraging 4.6 yards per carry. And he has 12 targets to lead the team, so his floor is locked in. You’re just slightly questioning the huge ceiling he used to have since he’s not a super-efficient rusher at this point, and they will probably continue to tone down his workload while they have Kaelon Black at 100%, which he wasn’t for week two after being legitimately questionable heading into that game.
Purdy is so good at running the offense, and he has 59 rushing yards through two games as well. He’s probably a top 8-10 QB for fantasy, so waiting forever to take him in your draft looks pretty sharp if you did that.
Drew Lock knows the game plan, just throw the ball to JSN. He now has 422 passing yards in two games, 277 of which have gone to JSN, as well as all four touchdowns he’s thrown. It’s a one-man attack in the passing game there, but somehow it continues to smash. You can probably use Lock in good matchups, and he would be a start in superflex/two QB leagues. He’s been really good so far.
Dak Prescott is near the top of the board as well. The home matchup with Washington yesterday helped a bunch, but for the year he’s at an elite 0.38 YPA with 454 yards on 65 attempts (7.0 YPA). The pass yards and touchdowns will continue to come. The Cowboys are now #1 in the league in pass rate over expectation. Their RB room is really thin. Javonte Williams is capable, but hardly a game-breaker type of RB, so they’ll just lean heavily on the pass, especially in these home games on the turf.
Bryce Young has been the biggest surprise at QB early on. 8.9 YPA, +0.35 epa, 63% completion rate on a high ADoT (9.2 yard).
Can that continue? I don’t know. He’s faced the Bears and Falcons so far, but he’s looking great and has entered the fantasy mix at QB. If you lost Caleb Williams, maybe that’s your answer on waivers this week. He’ll get the Eagles and Bucs next, which I guess is about an average strength of schedule in the short term. Young has run only three times for 16 yards, so that’s not a part of his game. He didn’t run for 50+ yards a single time last year and went above 30 just twice. So you’re really depending on him actually being a decent throwing QB now, but it’s not impossible. The guy was the #1 overall pick back in 2023, and maybe it just took him three full season to figure it out. Crazier things have happened.
So that’s been nice for Jalen Coker and Tet McMillan.
Coker: 16-204-2, 18 targets, 9.6 yard ADoT
Tet: 10-176-0, 18 targets, 13.9 yard ADoT
Those two have dominated targets for the Panthers. They might both be WR2-worthy plays this year if Young’s truly good now.
Expected Fantasy Points
Week two xFP leaders:
Ashton Jeanty 25.6
DeVonta Smith 22.8
Jahmyr Gibbs 22.8
De’Von Achane 22.7
Amon-Ra St. Brown 22.7
Jonathan Taylor 22.4
Dalton Schultz 21.2
Parker Washington 20.8
James Cook 19.4
Adonai Mitchell 19.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.0
Emanuel Wilson 18.6
Christian Watson 18
Chase Brown 17.9
D’Andre Swift 17.3
Tet McMillan 17.3
Chris Olave 17.2
Bucky Irving 17.0
CeeDee Lamb 16.5
Terry McLaurin 16.4
The dudes I think are worth talking about are in bold. So let’s do that.
DeVonta Smith saw 13 targets and went 10-177-1 on a 14.5-yard ADoT. Nobody else saw more than six targets (Wicks had six). Smith now has a 27.5% target per route, which is great. He’s the guy. He ran 17 slot routes in week two, up from five in week one. So that’s great news for him.
Dalton Schultz benefited from the Nico Collins injury. He went 12-for-140 on 14 targets with a higher-than-usual 7.4-yard ADoT. Stroud threw for 353 yards on a poor 57% completion rate (53 attempts got him there). It was Schultz as the first option, and then Xavier Hutchinson getting nine targets but not doing anything with them. Seven targets to Jared Wayne, so that’s the state of this pass-catching core behind Collins.
We have seen plenty of Schultz in the league; this isn’t some high-powered receiver just waiting for opportunity. But the volume will be there while Collins is out, enough to make him a TE starter in the meantime. And we’ll see how high the DFS price rises for next week!
Parker Washington has been as advertised by the truthers. He’s seen 18 targets in two games for 181 yards and a score. He’s at 38% target per route and 4.31 yards per route. Let’s show those leaderboards while we’re here.
TARGET RATE PER ROUTE RUN
JSN 46%
Washington 43%
McBride 40%
St. Brown 32%
Diggs 32%
Kincaid 30%
Lamb 30%
Jeanty 30%
Shakir 29%
Higgins 30%
YARDS PER ROUTE RUN
JSN 5.77
Kincaid 4.89
Washington 4.31
Lamb 3.52
Olave 3.15
Tre Tucker 3.04
Coker 3.00
Watson 2.98
Kelce 2.87
Waddle 2.86
It’s two games, but you can’t do much better than Parker Washington has, and he was mid-round pick this year, which is a smash. He’s like the JSN of last year, so far.
Adonai Mitchell and the Jets passing game has been better than expected. Geno Smith has 462 yards on a 7.2 YPA, a +0.2 EPA, and no interceptions through two games.
→ Wilson: 11-136-1, 14 targets, 10.9-yard ADoT
→ Mitchell: 9-123-0, 15 targets, 15.8-yard ADoT
Both of these guys are above a 24% TPRR and 2.1 YPRR. I don’t know how long it can hold up; we don’t exactly want to bank on Geno Smith and the Jets, but Smith is a step up from the QBs they’ve had there, and they have super-talented top-two WRs. Mitchell went 6-for-63 on 12 targets this past game. The long ADoT turns into a low catch rate, but he’ll make some big plays this year and it’s been a very encouraging start to the year if you have Jets pieces on your fantasy team.
Christian Watson has 19 targets in two games, having gone 10-188-3. That’s a phenomenal role. So far, it’s been mostly Watson and Matthew Golden.
Watson is running more of the slot routes (and could see more with Jayden Reed getting hurt). Watson has a very good 2.98 yards per route so far, and the Packers are probably going to have to throw more often this year with Jacobs out and both RBs being inefficient on the ground so far.
Wheels up for Christian Watson.
Golden’s floor showed up yesterday with just 4-58-0 on six targets on a 13.3-yard ADoT. Watson seems to be the best player on the offense, and it could be a massive season from him.
Player Grades
You’ll find these on the app now since we have multiple games on the board for most teams. It’s kind of an ugly display, I should fix that. But the numbers are there.
Quarterbacks
This looks at efficiency, QB running, volume, etc.
Josh Allen is the runaway QB1. I imagine that Jaxson Dart steps down after he plays another game tonight, but we’ll see about that.
Not much to discuss here that we haven’t already. Interesting that Deshaun Watson is #11 on the board so far. He is suddenly at a 77% completion rate with 443 yards, a 3:1 TD:INT, and an 8.5 YPA. Not as bad as you thought!
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker is looking like a top 3 RB right now. If we drafted again today, he might be the second guy off the board in some drafts. He has averaged 6.2 yards per carry and has 9-79-1 through the air on ten targets in two games. Sheeeesh!
DChuba Hubbard was slept on again this year. He’s at 22-102-1 on the ground and 5-49-2 through the air on five targets as he’s been the guy for them again. Jonathon Brooks has averaged 3.3 yards per carry, so he’s not taking the job from Hubbard. Looks like Chuba is a legit fantasy starter, but his wagon is hitched to Bryce Young’s, and my jury is still out on him.
Travis Etienne holds on in the top 12 here, but it was a scary week for him. Alvin Kamara returned and played 30% of snaps, ran nine routes, carried it nine times, and took six targets. Etienne is obviously the better running back, but they have kept his running usage even with Kendre Miller in week one and now Kamara in week two.
Etienne being at 3.9 yards per carry while Kamara went for 1.7 out of the gate is a sign that Etienne should eventually take over, but the fact that they didn’t come out of the gate featuring him is very bothersome to me, who drafted Etienne.
De’Von Achane got the ball more in week two. 20 carries, six targets. Awesome volume there, but he went for just 74 rush yards and 19 receiving, and the offense has one touchdown so far. He was a bad first round pick, but at least they got him the ball in week two.
Wide Receivers
Denzel Boston has gone 7-152-2 on 11 targets to lead the Browns. Nobody else has more than 71 receiving yards. His 15.8-yard ADoT makes him boom-or-bust, but he’s hit two boom plays in his first two career games. So that’s good news.
Tre Tucker won’t sustain any of this when Brock Bowers returns, which should be next week. The targets have been pretty spread out without Bowers, Tucker just hit a long play for a score. Good on you if you started him this week, but I wouldn’t bank on much from him when Bowers is back.
At least we’ve seen Kirk Cousins play decent at QB. It might be a pretty good offense.
Jaylen Waddle popped up in week two to put your concerns to rest after week one. He went 8-138-0 on ten targets and dominated the usage rate with a 46% TPRR. Very good for Waddle. Bo Nix has played well so far by the EPA number (+0.27), so that’s a positive sign for this offense.
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid is TE1 so far, but Isaiah Likely hasn’t gotten his second shot at it yet. In two games, Kincaid looks like the TE3 in fantasy behind Bowers and McBride. He’s always been awesome with the opportunity he’s gotten, and now he’s healthy and getting that opportunity. He’s run a team-high 46 routes (DJ Moore’s injury made that happen), and he’s turned that into a ridiculous 12-225-1 on 14 targets through two games. Balling out!
And how about Travis Kelce looking youthful again? 12-172-1 through two games with 16 targets, a 27% TPRR and 2.9 YPRR. I don’t think he can sustain that as a 36-year-old, but he’s fresh right now and has had a great start to the year.
There’s a whole lot more in the numbers, but you can dig into it yourselves this week. Use the tools and let me know what questions you have about using them!