I was too low on the Broncos originally. I have now noticed their team implied total, they’re expected to score the fourth-most points on the slate. The Panthers’ defense is so bad. Carolina is also starting Bryce Young without Diontae Johnson, so it’s an excellent spot for the Broncos to coast. Bo Nix has also been running a bunch lately. He’s in my lineup right now, and Javonte Williams is very strong as well. The reason I went with Nix is that he’s only a bit more expensive than the Mariota/Winston play I was going to make, and I feel a lot better about the floor. I don’t have Williams, but maybe I should… I just feel icky with two Broncos, given how poor their offense has been overall.
Tee Higgins might miss the game as well. That would make Ja’Marr Chase pretty interesting. There was a game that Higgins missed last year where Chase went for 19 targets and 55 DraftKings points. I’ll prepare a Chase lineup just in case Higgins is really out.
Bucky Irving is expected to play. I was on Rachaad White when it was looking like Irving would miss - but now that backfield is hands-off again.
So I’ve got some work to do putting these pieces together. Good luck.
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We have a 13-game slate this week, so this is going to be a grueling one to right. I had better win this week…
Here it is:
There is one game standing out above the rest:
Packers vs. Jaguars (50.5 O/U, 4.5 point spread)
There’s only one game under 40 points, but there are five under 45. I’m hoping we find a couple of games we can totally ignore, but with all of these injuries going on - I think we’re going to have to explore all 13. So we had better get started.
Ravens vs. Browns
Game Environment
O/U: 44.5 Spread: Ravens -11.5
This should be a bloodbath. You could argue this is the best team in the league against the worst, and we see that reflected as the Ravens are an 11.5-point favorite on the road. It’s probably not the best spot to pay the huge price tags for the Ravens, but the Browns have undergone a major roster shuffle for this week, so that makes things interesting on their side.
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson ($8,000) remains at $8,000. Even with how bad the Browns have been, they’ve managed opposing QB scoring well. Lamar is different than other quarterbacks, but this is clearly not the spot to pay $8,000 for him.
The other side is very interesting, as we are likely to get a Jameis Winston ($5,200) game. Watson is done for the year, and it’s looking unlikely that Thompson-Robinson will be ready. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen Winston as a starting QB. He’s five years removed from that 5,000+ yard season in 2019 - but that did happen. This guy loves to chuck the ball, and the Browns are likely to be in a spot where they need to do a lot of ball-chucking this week. He started three games for the Saints at the beginning of 2022:
→ 23/234, 269 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT → 25/40, 236 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT → 25/41, 353 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
He got in there for a couple of drives last week and threw it 13 times for 83 yards on six completions, including at touchdown. He also averaged an 8.8 ADoT in that small sample - a full 1.6 yards above what Watson had done this year.
The weapons are limited with Cooper out, but it seems like there’s a pretty clear path to 40+ attempts from Winston, and that works well for $5,200. I’m into it, but I’m also going to rely on some of the other projection models out there to see if they agree with me.
Running Backs
I’m passing on Derrick Henry ($8,100) for the same reason I’m passing on Lamar. Cleveland has given up the second-fewest points per snap to opposing running backs and has held RBs to 4.1 yards per carry. Henry will probably still get to 100 yards and a score - there’s little doubt he’ll see 20+ carries, but it’s just not the right spot to pay the huge tag.
Nick Chbub ($6,100) was eased back into work last week, playing just 27 snaps. We cannot consider him anytime soon, and I doubt we ever get there with how bad this offense is.
Winston’s targets: Jeudy (4), Njoku (3), Tillman (3), Moore (1)
The price shot up on David Njoku ($5,100), but he’s still in play. He’s probably the Browns’ best chance through the air. The other play of interest is Cedric Tillman ($3,300) just because of how cheap he is. We think the Browns are going to throw it 35+ times, and Tillman went for a huge 28% target/route in that first game without Cooper. This is a second-year player who didn’t do much at all as a rookie. Given that we have Jeudy and Moore, it’s no slam dunk that he’ll run a bunch of routes, but the price is clearly too low for a guy coming off a 13-target game after a major change in the WR room.
Recap/Targets
I like a trio of Browns as we bet on the Ravens running away with this one and the Browns playing yolo ball: Winston, Njoku, and Tillman.
This is a run-heavy spot for the Lions. The Titans have shown very little ability to score points. They’ve averaged just 4.1 yards per play, second-worst to the Browns. So the Lions should get a lead and keep it. The interesting wrinkle is that the Titans are tough to run on. They’ve given up just 3.9 yards per carry - the fourth-best mark in the league. So we will explore that when it comes to the only interesting spot in this game - Detroit runners.
Quarterbacks
It’s a huge slate, so that makes it easy to scratch off any QB in a suboptimal spot. Easy pass.
Running Backs
The prices:
Jahmyr Gibbs $6,900
David Montgomery $6,600
We saw Montgomery miss a few drives last week, and Gibbs took quick advantage of that, scoring two touchdowns on a 15-116 rushing line. That was his second-most carries of the year.
Because of all of that, the prices have gone in opposite directions:
Montgomery returned just fine and does not have an injury designation for week 8 as of now. That makes me think there are going to be a pretty easy 15+ carries for him with a high likelihood of a touchdown. The game environment is great, but the yards-per-carry projection is going to be down. Running backs have averaged just 3.45 yards per carry this year. I think we can expect better than that from the Lions, because they’re very good at this - but with all of these options on the board, I don’t think it’ll be correct to play Montgomery. I’m going to put him on the list anyways (this is the first game I’m writing), because I do think he’s the clear play over Gibbs with the $1,000 price difference - but I don’t imagine playing anybody from this game when it’s all settled.
On the other side is Tony Pollard ($6,500). I played him last week since his backup (Tyjae Spears) was out. That turned into a season-high in snaps (59) for Pollard, but the ofense wasn’t able to do mch of anything and he finished with just 61 yards and no touchdowns. I’m almost surely not going to play him as a huge underdog with a $200 price increase. That said, if Spears misses again, Pollard will project for a huge workload, so I’ll keep him near the bottom of the list.
Pass Catchers
I’m guessing somebody will have a very good game for the Lions. They are projected for a good number of points, they are a hyper-efficient passing game, and the Titans can be beaten in that way. But it’s not an optimal spot to pick from since it’s very unlikely we get a highly competitive game where the Lions are throwing the ball in all four quarters. Pass!
Recap/Targets
All things considered, there are no standout plays. David Montgomery is in a good spot for the price, and Tony Pollard has a great role with Spears out. They’ve both gone on the list, but I imagine we’ll easily find many better plays at the position after we get through all of these games.
Anthony Richardson returned under center for Indy, and that sent their offense back into the shit zone. They averaged just 4.7 yards per play last week with a very bad -0.145 EPA/Play. This is a much better fantasy offense with Flacco as the QB.
A 46.5 total seems crazy to me; I’d bet the under there.
As of now, there are no significant injuries that will change things for us. Jonathan Taylor is slated to return, and Nico Collins remains out - but the prices have long adjusted for that.
Quarterbacks
The price on Anthony Richardson ($5,800) is coming down to where it should be.
But is it low enough for consideration on a 13-game slate? He’s averaged a decent 7.8 yards per attempt, but that’s on low volume. He did run it 14 times last week for 56 yards, but since he threw for just 129 yards and did not factor into a touchdown, it was another miserable fantasy result (9.8 points). He’s a pass once again.
CJ Stroud ($6,900) has thrown for 192 and 86 yards in two games without Nico Collins, so he’s easy to scratch off.
We can pass.
Running Backs
As I said, Jonathan Taylor ($7,500) should return, but the price is much too high. Joe Mixon ($7,700) saw a $500 price increase this week.
That’s because he went 26-115-2 last week and has averaged 5.1 yards per carry with five touchdowns in his (less than) four games. He has scored 30, 30, and 29 fantasy points in his three full games on the field. So his scoring has been studly. I think he’s fine; I just can’t buy high on him like that on this particular slate. I’ll pass on both backfields.
Pass Catchers
The Colts’ receivers have been a full fade all year with Richardson under center. That has proven to be the right move, and it won’t change this week.
On the Texans side, we now have two full games without Nico Collins. In that time:
Those are the two names of note. Last week was a weird game for Houston with just those 86 total passing yards (Stroud went an uncharacteristic 10/21), so we shouldn’t read too much into that. The Colts play fast, so that benefits the Texans’ play count projection. I just don’t think this Colts offense can be competitive enough to give us a good chance at seeing one of these price tags pay off. I’m off these plays.
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