We have a 12-game slate here, and there is a lot to like. But there isn’t too much to like as there was last week.
There are a few very appealing game environments (ATL/DAL, BUF/MIA, LAR/SEA), and at least one that’s easy to avoid (NE/TEN). There are plenty of misprices with injuries and some QB changes. It’s a good slate, and I hope you enjoy what I’ve written below.
Cowboys vs. Falcons
Game Environment
O/U: 52 Spread: Falcons -2.5
We start with a big one. The Cowboys have played at the fastest pace in the league so far, and the Falcons at number three. Both offenses are good, and both defenses are beatable. There aren’t any injury situations to exploit, so I suspect these prices will all be correct, but let’s see if we can find some angles to consider.
Quarterbacks
This is a good game environment to choose a quarterback from. However, I’m not sure I can get behind the prices on Dak Prescott ($6,500) and Kirk Cousins ($6,400). They both do have a decent floor, but with the lack of rushing and the pricetags - you’re really hoping for that 300+ yard and multiple touchdown day, and those are pretty easy to miss out on.
Last year, we saw the Cowboys throwing the ball an absolute ton - and that turned into some huge games for Prescott. This year, they’re at a -1% PROE. That still makes them the tenth most pass-heavy team in the league, but it’s not to the point where we can expect 40 pass attempts from Prescott every week. So I’m out on both guys.
Running Backs
Rico Dowdle ($6,000) missed last week due to illness, so I would imagine he’s back at 100% for this matchup. He’s not playable for my purposes with Ezekiel Elliott in the picture.
Bijan Robinson ($7,400) is in a good spot. The Cowboys have given up 4.8 yards per rush. Robinson has averaged 4.3 targets per game in addition to taking the bulk of the carries. The price is correct, but the upside is high enough in this matchup to where I would be happy to get him in the lineup. He is our first man on the list.
Pass Catchers
It’s all CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) for the Cowboys. He has a 27% target share and a 29% TPRR. He’s averaged 10.4 targets per game and has a solid 8.9 ADoT, and he also gets a carry or two per game. The price is way up there, however. He’s the most expensive player on the slate, so that makes it tough to get to.
He is still on the list, but I doubt I can afford him this week.
Jake Ferguson ($5,100) is one of the tight ends with the highest usage in the league. There are usually some exploitable price tags on tight ends, so I doubt I will end up on Ferguson at that spot - but he’s good enough to go on the list.
The Falcons are tough to choose from. Here’s the update on their primary receivers:
Drake London ($6,700) and Darnell Mooney ($6,000) are the main guys. Mooney had the big game last week while London took a backseat, and that resulted in a $500 price reduction on London.
I like a discount, so I can see myself going back to London this week. Ray-Ray McCloud ($3,800) is also pretty cheap for a guy with 5.3 targets per game, but the floor is awfully low.
Recap/Targets
This is a fantastic game environment, but there are no bad prices. I don’t see anybody that I’m definitely playing, but the guys on the list are Robinson, Lamb, Ferguson, London, and McCloud.
Broncos vs. Ravens
Game Environment
O/U: 44.5 Spread: Ravens -9
This is a pretty interesting one. The Ravens have a really tough run defense (allowing 3.3 YPC), but a bad pass defense (allowing 8.0 YPA). Opponents have picked up on that and are throwing it a ton against them. They’ve thrown it 71% of the time against the Ravens, four points above expectation.
Meanwhile, Denver has the best defense in the league by some measures. They’ve allowed the lowest yards per play in the league at 4.2. We should note their schedule: SEA, PIT, TB, NYJ, LVR, LAC, NOR, CAR. So they have seen a lot of bad offenses. This will be their biggest test. They have been phenomenal at taking wide receivers out of the game, but I don’t think the Ravens mind that too much as they’ll be looking to run the ball early and often.
Quarterbacks
I am not considering Lamar Jackson ($8,000). But Bo Nix ($5,900) is interesting once again. The price is up a bit, but he’s still quite affordable, and this is a spot where we’d expect him to throw a ton. Add onto that his moderate ability to run (he has games of 61 and 75 rushing yards), and you have yourself a very nice play at QB.
Running Backs
It’s an easy spot to fade the Broncos running back tandem. Derrick Henry ($8,300) is basically always in play. He has a very high floor, but the price just keeps increasing, and paying $8,300 for him isn’t what I want to do. Pass.
Pass Catchers
I like Nix a little bit, but not enough to consider any of his pass catchers. If I was stacking the Broncos for some reason, Courtland Sutton ($5,400) would be the guy. He has a 23% target share with a 25% TPRR and a 1.6 yards per route. THe target share is just 18% over these last four games, so Nix has been moving it around as he’s grown more confident. I can’t go here; at the end of the day - the Broncos have the second-lowest team total on the board.
The Ravens pass catchers are very easy to fade, especially with Diontae Johnson joining the bunch.
Recap/Targets
It’s Bo Nix $5,900 or nobody, and probably nobody.
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