My DFS Lineup
I played strictly $1-$3 double ups (you can get a ton of action in those for NFL), and cashed pretty easy. I’m just going to track the double up results each week to see how often we can get to the cash line using this approach.
I threw the lineup into a few of those “Hundo” contests, which I’ve talked a lot about in the past. They are 100-player fields and the rake is only 10%, so they’re definitely cash-lineup worthy.
Here’s the lineup:
Quarterback
There was no standout QB to me, and I didn’t feel the need to get risky with a super cheap guy. So I just took the slate-leading game environment and put Jared Goff in there. I didn’t love it, but felt like the floor was 12+ points with ease in that environment with big potential if the game went to a shootout. Goff was lucky to throw a second touchdown in overtime, so it could have been a lot worse than this.
The highest owned QBs:
A lot of people consult the same projections, and ETR had Herbert & Goff as the top plays for cash; that’s always going to be an influence. We got helped by the Chargers coming out super flat and losing to the Cardinals, and a Kyler Murray injury at 13% ownership didn’t hurt, either. Shout out to the people who had the stones to play Tyler Shough there.
Running Back
This is where my money was made. I didn’t love playing Bijan Robinson with the QB situation there, but it was made easier by the fact that we figured Bijan would have to do pretty much everything for them. And he did. Eight catches and 21 rushing attempts, and he added a touchdown.
The Jahmyr Gibbs play went swimmingly. I can’t say he was the difference-maker at 69% ownership. But that’s 31% of people not playing Gibbs in that spot; that’s a very good sign for us.
The highest owned backs:
So Bijan coming up with 31.3 points at 16.5% ownership while Achane and Hampton (who I thought were bad plays) was the main reason I cashed this weekend.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase had a shocking bust with a 2-12 line on four targets. But it didn’t hurt too bad at 59.5% ownership.
I did not play Amon-Ra, it just didn’t fit with Bijan and I didn’t want to go overboard on Lions. That turned out to be a bad call, but we survived it.
Tre Tucker was in my lineup as he should have been more expensive given the injury to Brock Bower. I guess I was super wrong in not playing Devaughn Vele for $500 less than Tucker.
Chris Olave came up big at just 24% ownership. Tyler Shough loves that guy and gave him 13 targets, which Olave turned into 10-182.
Tight Ends
The projections all pointed to a two-tight end build this week. Had to get Gibbs and Chase, and that will usually put you on a two TE build. People weren’t really on LaPorta, and a third of people didn’t play Michael Mayer, which was dumb of them in cash.
That ownership there is only the ownership on LaPorta in the TE spot. He was in the flex a good bit for people, including myself.
DST
It’s always a good week when DST doesn’t matter.
I got nine points from the Jets, which worked out fine.
Great way to start the season. Not a total smash, could have done a lot better with a Vele play instead of Tucker, but the nice thing about double-ups is that a cash is a cash no matter where you land. And I’m pretty excited to see that 30% of the field didn’t play Gibbs. That’s a big old mistake to make, so let’s hope that keeps going.
Week One Recap
I’m just going to go through a few of my favorite statistical categories and pick out the things I think might matter. Tons of people are out there doing this stuff right now, but I’m happy to add to the content pile for my faithful subscribers.
Pass Rate Over Expectation Leaders
The pass-happiest teams in the league this week (which adjusts for situation):
Steelers +9.2%
Bills +6.3%
49ers +5.1%
Saints +5.1%
Bengals +4.6%
STEELERS PASSING GAME
Pretty surprising to see if from the Steelers. They typically like to run, but they might shift away from this year with the Jaylen Warren + Rico Dowdle backfield. And this is a brand new coaching staff with Mike McCarthy.
Rodgers ripped it 40 times but completed just 60% of his passes or 221 yards and a bad 5.53 yards per attempt and one touchdown. His ADoT was a lot higher than last year at 10.2. So this is a more aggressive Steelers offense, which you like to see for fantasy purposes.
Targets: Metcalf 10, Wilson 6, Warren 6, Dowdle 5, Freiermuth 5, Pittman 3, Washington 2
DK is the clear WR1 and had a 21-yard ADoT. He’s going to get some shots, but he didn’t come through on any of them yesterday. He was the #1 under-performer on his xFP:
Three Steelers on that list, which might just speak to the offense being bad and Rodgers being super old. But I would say this is a nice buy-low opportunity on DK Metcalf.
Dowdle went 8-12 on the ground against a decent Falcons defense, so a 1.9 yards per rush. If that continues, it would make some sense for the Steelers to be very pass-heavy while Aaron Rodgers is still standing.
SAINTS ATTACK
They had to score in this game. It was a close game throughout, though, so this wasn’t a desperate attempt to catch up. Shough threw it 56 (!) times for 410 yards, throwing three touchdowns and two interceptions.
The targets: Olave 13, Etienne 9, Vele 9, Fant 8, Johnson 7, Lance 5, Donaldson 2.
When you throw it 56 times, some dudes are going to eat in the pass game. Pretty awesome sign for Olave and Etienne getting so many targets. I don’t think that can possibly be the norm, though.
On the ground, they split it pretty even:
→ Etienne 9-46-0
→ Miller 9-30-1
I don’t have the snaps & routes data yet, so we’ll have to come back to this and more when we’re doing the week two game write-ups. Alvin Kamara was not active, so that makes it a tough situation to analyze. I would guess we’d still see some Kamara in pass situations.
Overall I guess it wasn’t the best sign for Etienne that they were so willing to give carries to Miller. But still - Kamara might not see much of the field at all even when he’s active. If that’s the case, Etienne will be very good in PPR, but we don’t know yet.
Olave just went nuts even though he got banged up a few times and left the game. 10-182-0 on 13 targets with an 18-yard ADoT. He’s so good, and he’s going to get PEPPERED by Shough.
LOWEST PROE
Falcons -19%
Rams -16%
Browns -16%
Seahawks -13%
Jets -12%
Vikings -11%
Ravens -9%
The league average yesterday was -5%. So we have to adjust this stuff in our head, the algorithm is using a model that was trained from old data, obviously, and the league is just more run-heavy now than it was when these models were trained. So the number itself isn’t as important as the league rank.
FALCONS
No surprise that they didn’t throw it with Cooper Rush under center. This was just a weird game. Rush threw it 22 times with a 3.5-yard ADoT. Bijan had ten targets, London had four, Dotson 1, Zaccheaus 1. They had no real chance with the QB situation they’ve gotten handed, so the game plan was just to let Bijan carry the ball. It was the Fresh Prince of Bel Air approach:
PASS THE BALL TO WILL (Bijan).
It’ll be Penix before long, so we can’t evaluate this offense on week one. I wouldn’t be super panicky about Drake London due to all of this, but I can say that I’m glad I didn’t draft the guy!
Browns
I mean what are they going to do? Watson went 16/22 for 205 yards, so actually a pretty decent day, but they just got their doors blown off by the Jaguars.
They got off 51 plays (per my dashboard, there are some decisions you have to make on what counts as a play with penalties and all of that - so the numbers might not match everywhere you look). That was the third-least plays of the week (SEA 49, TEN 50, CLE 51, PHI 53, IND 54, JAX 54). But it’s not like they started chucking it after being down big at the half.
The real bad news for Judkins is that the targets were spread out like crazy: Concepcion 5, Jeudy 4, Boston 4, Sanders 3, Fannin 3, Judkins 2, Whiteheart 1
It’s one game, yadda yadda, but yuck.
Rams
They had to go to Australia and then Stafford just played like junk. He Janson’d it out there. 15/25 for 155 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, -0.22 EPA. Bad, bad outing for the Rams, and they leaned into the run with 11 carries going to Kyren, ten going to Corum, and five to Ronnie Rivers.
It’s concerning, obviously, but nobody should be surprised if they get right back to their 2025 business when they get back to the states and have more time to play the game.
Expected Fantasy Points
Possibly the biggest advantage of having my NFL dashboard is this xFP model. It looks at opportunity only and gives you an expectation of fantasy points scored based on your targets, ADoT, rush attempts, etc. It treats every player as the same skill level, so it’s not giving YAC guys more credit than slow plodders. It’s limited in what it can do for you, but it’s a great way to see fantasy point opportunity in one number.
The top ten:
Gibbs 28
Bijan 26
Jeanty 24
Olave 23
C Brown22
St. Brown 22
McBride 21
Golden 21
Montgomery 19
Collins 19
That’s everybody above 19.
Gibbs was helped by the game being competitive, which won’t always be the case for the Lions as they should smash some bad teams this year. But yeah, 29 rushes and five targets.
Ashton Jeanty’s ankle is just fine. 23 carries, six targets. 23-102-0 on the ground, 6-45-2 through the air. He’s a pass catching machine and they’re looking for him heavily in the red zone, and with two reliable ways to get him the ball, it’s going to be a big year if the QB play holds up. Cousins did okay here, basically a league-average QB day for him, and that might be all Jeanty + Bowers need to have huge years.
Chase Brown gave up five carries and three targets to Samaje Perine, but got 22 touches and a touchdown. And this was with the Bengals kinda letting us down through the air. Big year for Brown, but Perine is still a thing and he’ll probably grab 35% of snaps and 2-4 targets a week depending on the game scripts.
The shocking name on this list is Matthew Golden. The Packers were still relatively run-heavy (-7% PROE), but that was in the middle of the pack, so a step up from last year. Love threw for 387 yards on an elite 9.2 yards per attempt (YPA), so that should encourage the Packers to go to the air a lot more while Jacobs is out. Lloyd averaged 2.8 yards per tote, too, so even more reason to put the ball in Love’ hands. His targets: Golden 12, Watson 8, Reed 7, Kraft 6, Smith 3, Lloyd/Brooks/Melton 1
Golden went 6-95-0 with an 11.4 yard ADoT. It was 48 pass attempts from Love and they handed it off just 20 times to the RBs. I think Golden is more of a deep ball guy than a possession receiver, especially as the WR3 on the depth chart. That will turn into a low catch rate (50% yesterday), but some massive plays and big games like this one. And 12 targets… that was more than twice the expectation, so a good sign for him. Watson also had a high ADoT at 15.9 yards, so maybe one of these guys will have to get some more lower-ADoT stuff unless they’re just going to go to Reed/Kraft in the mid-range.
We can’t learn too much from one week, especially without the routes data in yet. But you’re feeling pretty great about having Golden and Watson where you have them.
TEXANS
20 carries to David Montgomery plus three targets, and three total TDs. He’s their goalline guy. He out-carried Woody Marks 20-9, so that’s a good sign that the “shared backfield” talk was overstated.
Nico Collins took 10 targets and went 7-75-1 as the Texans had to play catch-up to a four-touchdown Josh Allen performance. Targets there: Collins 10, Schultz 8, Hutchinson 6, Montgomery 3, Boutte/Noel/Moreau 2, Marks/Klein/Wayne/Stover 1.
If they need a big play through the air, it’s Collins with no competition. But Stroud will spread it around for the short and medium stuff. Collins ADoT was 12, Boutte’s was 16, so those are the two deep guys, and Collins will get his share of mid-range stuff too; he’s a huge dude who they want to get the ball.
PANTHERS
Jalen Coker led with 16 xFP. And Bryce Young played great with 361 yards, 9.8 YPA, 3:1 TD:INT. Is that a sign that he’s figured something out? Maybe, maybe not. The Bears scored 51 points against them, so they had to put the pedal to the metal.
Targets: Coker 9, McMillan 8, Tremble 5, Hubbard 3, Evans/Brooks/Waller 2. McMillan’s the WR1, but Coker was the man in this one going 8-138-2.
The Bears will probably be the best matchup in the league for fantasy points with their high-powered offense and horrible defense. So a big grain of salt on this big Panthers game.
BEARS
Probably the funniest development of the week was the Bears scoring 51 points and this happening:
Odunze: 2-52-0
Burden 5-63-0
Loveland: 0-0-0
Caleb Williams went 10-65-2 on the ground and added 269 yards and two touchdowns through the air with no interceptions. So it was him and D’Andre Swift (18-124-3 on the ground, 1-10-0 through the air) doing the big fantasy football things.
Kalif Raymond went 8-84-0 through the air on a team leading nine targets. Here’s the full picture:
Just really funny stuff that everybody was hyped to draft Burden/Odunze/Loveland just to see Kalif Raymond be the guy. We shouldn’t read anything into that, it’s a very good sign overall for all Bears players in fantasy leagues. They want to score a ton of points, and they showed the ability to do that right out of the gate.
Targets Leaders
14 Targets
Amon-Ra St. Brown
13 Targets
Trey McBride, Chris Olave
12 Targets
Matthew Golden
11 Targets
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
10 Targets
Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf, Bijan Robinson
9 Targets
Etienne, Diggs, Nacua, Nabers, Raymond, Jameson Williams, Coker, Vele
8 Targets
Tet McMillan, LaPorta, Fant, Malik Washington, Bourne, Likely, Moore, Schultz, Watson, McCaffrey, Lamb
DOLPHINS
Malik Willis went 15/27 for 220 yards and an 11.4 yard ADoT. He ran it six times for 39 yards and a touchdown. So they were running a lot and throwing it deep when they threw it.
De’Von Achane went just 11-36-0 on the ground and 4-30-0 through the air. I personaly was going nowhere near him in my few drafts, and we see why here. It’s going to be really tough for him to be who he was last year with Willis at QB and this team just being bad. I’m sure he’ll still have some big games, he’s clearly their best player and they’ll be playing from behind most weeks. But Willis isn’t the “dump it off to the RB/slot” QB that Tua was.
Willis’ 56% completion rate limited everyone in the passing game.
→ Malik Washington: 8 targets, 3-53-0, 17 yd ADoT
→ Caleb Douglas: 7 targets, 5-94-0, 14 yd ADoT
→ Achane: 5 targets 4-30-0, 0.8 yd ADoT
Tough offense there, but it might be pretty concentrated to these three, and Willis will have some games where he has to throw it 30+ times due to the scoreboard.
GIANTS
Big win for the Giants at home vs. Dallas to start the year! Dart was incredible:
→ 23/29, 230 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 11-54-0 on the ground
Cam Skattebo took 18 of 28 RB carries for 18-81-1 on the ground, but did not see a single target. His game is pass catching, so that should change, but I don’t know! He didn’t play much with Dart at the same time last year, so it’s possible that this will be kind of a Dolphins/Achane situation where they just don’t throw the ball to the backs very much. But great game for Dart & Skattebo against that beatable Cowboys defense.
Dart could be really special. I mean he was awesome as a passer and carried it 11 times, the most for any QB. I’m guessing one or both of these guys is going to get hurt, but an awesome sign for the Giants in week one.
The targets there: Nabers 9, Likely 8, Fields 4, Singletary 4, Mooney 2, Johnson 1
Malik Nabers was a gametime decision but went for an encouraging 6-69-0 with an 11.4 yard ADoT on his nine targets.
Isaiah Likely will be a big part of this offense and had one of the best tight end games of the week, catching all eight targets for 78 yards and two scores.
RAVENS
Total smash for the Ravens.
Lamar went 17/24 for 327 yards and a touchdown and added 7-40-1 on the ground. He looked healthy and this offense was unstoppable with 7.9 yards per play.
So Derrick Henry and Lamar both went off at the same time. Henry went 24-144-3 on the ground and added a 19 yards screen pass catch.
And Zay Flowers went 5-15-1 on very limited playing time because he left the game early with an injury. He caught 5 of 6 targets and ripped off a couple long gainers including a 54-yard score.
They played a bad Colts defense in the dome, so that helped, but look - if Lamar is healthy, it’s probably the best offense in the sport, and all three of these fantasy studs could be supported if they’re near this efficient.
Yards Per Play
I’m not going in any logical order here, just kind of brain dumping stuff out as I go through this. But my favorite way to judge an offense is yards per play.
TOP TEN
BAL 7.9
BUF 7.4
CHI 7.4
CAR 7.0
JAX 6.7
GB 6.2
PHI 6.0
NYG 6.0
SF 5.8
SEA 5.8
BOTTOM TEN
TEN 3.9
NE 3.9
MIN 4.0
ATL 4.0
PIT 4.1
DAL 4.2
WAS 4.3
LVR 4.5
IND 4.6
MIA 4.6
We need a lot more data for that stuff to be meaningful, so we’ll keep an eye on that.
That’s my look! Had a lot of fun, learned a lot, ready for some MNF and week two!
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