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The Sims Flipped My Whole Build: June 24 Main Slate
I ran 2,000 Sims per game through the engine before I locked a single roster, which is a good thing because the output changed my mind on two of my favorite plays. I’m playing the usual split tonight: a chunk in a double-up, one single-entry that needs to be mostly right, and a small MME pool where I’m chasing the highest-ceiling game on the board. The headline from the sims is simple: one game towers over everything else, and the chalk pitcher I had penciled into my cash core is actually a trap.
The Run Environment
Milwaukee, 5.4, facing Rhett Lowder
Toronto, 5.3, facing Mike Burrows
Los Angeles (NL), 5.2, facing Joe Ryan
St. Louis, 4.9, facing Matthew Liberatore
Arizona, 4.5, facing Mitch Bratt
Now here’s where the 2,000 sims reframe it. The engine projects Milwaukee at Cincinnati for a 13.07 total, more than two runs clear of every other game, with Milwaukee scoring 7.83 average runs and the over clearing 9.5 in 71.4 percent of sims and even 11 runs in 56.6 percent. That is the game tonight. After that the sims like the Athletics at San Francisco at 10.97 with Oakland’s road bats putting up 6.59, then Houston at Toronto at 10.74. The field is going to spread its money across Milwaukee, the Dodgers, and Toronto, and they’re right about Milwaukee, but the sim has the Brewers as a far bigger smash than Vegas does. The quieter edge is Arizona, which the sim has winning 68 percent and scoring 6.04 on the road against Liberatore at low ownership. I am not messing with the second game of the doubleheader so you won’t see anything there.
