I was wide awake at 5:30am this morning. The subconscious… I just knew I had a ton of stuff to do today so my brain wouldn’t let me sleep in. So I got a two-mile run in and went to work.
The projections are updated, the slate analysis app is populated, and I’ve written 3,300 words on this Tuesday slate of postseason games. And I’m able to get it out for hours before it begins! So that’s good.
Off we go!
Wild Card Odds
Tigers vs Guardians
→ Tigers -115, Guardians -105
Padres vs. Cubs
→ Cubs -125, Padres +105
Yankees vs. Red Sox
→ Yankees -165, Red Sox +135
Reds vs. Dodgers
→ Dodgers -245, Reds +205
World Series Odds
Phillies +425
Mariners +450
Dodgers +500
Blue Jas +750
Brewers +750
Yankees +800
Padres +1400
Cubs +1500
Tigers +1800
Red Sox +2200
Guardians +1300
Reds +3500
I don’t like being that guy, but my pick is going to be the Dodgers.
Dodgers Offense Since August 1st
.249/.316/.439, 81 HR (24.5 PA/HR), 22% K%, 9.8% Brl%, .336 xwOBA
They were a bit vulnerable in the middle of the season. The pitching wasn’t healthy at all and Betts and Freeman were legitimately struggling. But the big three since August 1st:
Ohtani: 1.069 OPS, 17 HR
Freeman: .914 OPS, 13 HR
Betts: .828 OPS, 9 HR
They’re back to being an elite top three. They are vulnerable behind those three. Teoscar Hernandez has not been great this year with just a .743 OPS. But he finished pretty strong with a .336 xwOBA and much-improved 18.5% K% in September.
The key point, though, is the pitching.
Snell and Yamamoto go in games one and two, and they have Ohtani and Sheehan hanging around with elite numbers of late. It’s the best pitching staff in the postseason, I think.
The Mariners are the favorites on the AL side, and you can understand why. They’re the other team that has a case for best pitching staff remaining. Gilbert, Kirby, and Woo are all aces. You could say that Gilbert and Kirby haven’t been the most steady, but few pitchers are without hiccups, and all these guys finished very strong overall. Luis Castillo is no slouch as an SP4 either.
But we won’t see them until the weekend, so we’ll talk about them and the Phillies when we get there.
Let’s break down some of these games!
Matchup Model - Team Ranks
I’m not sure how many people utilized this in the MLB DW Slate Analysis app all year, but you can get the matchup model’s team ranks for each day:
The Yankees sit on top today. They handle nasty lefties better than most teams. But hold on, it’s Garrett Crochet. But let’s save that for the game preview.
Cleveland is in a turbo bad spot against Skubal. They’re well below the pack with that .282 xwOBA and pitiful 4% Brl%.
Matchup Model - BOOM Hitters
We are not going to have long lists of BOOM hitters with eight teams (max) on these slates and usually good pitchers on the hill. But we have six spots today.
J-Ram vs. Skubal
Kyle Tucker vs. Nick Pivetta
Matt Shaw vs. Nick Pivetta
Alex Bregman vs. Max Fried
Paul Goldschmidt vs. Garrett Crochet
Miguel Andujar vs. Blake Snell
Jose Ramirez has hit .375/.412/.531 in 32 ABs against Skubal. Shout to him.
Matt Shaw shows here. It’s a smaller sample of 185 pitches. Pretty noisy, probably. He has slashed .257/.316/.519 in his last 206 PAs with 11 homers, a 24% K%, an 8% BB%, and a 10% Brl%. Those early season struggles are behind him. He’s been a solid bat for the Cubs.
Let’s get into these games! We’re going to find at least one BET for every game as well as offer DFS thoughts. Because it’s a fantastic DFS slate. These two slates are probably my favorites of the year, behind Opening Day. If you’re in our DraftKings league, there’s a contest up there for $10. If not, click the link below.
JOIN TODAY’S DRAFTKINGS CONTEST HERE.
Tigers vs. Guardians
Well, things get started with a bit of a whimper. It is Skubal vs. Williams, which is a pretty nice pitching matchup, but you could say these are the two worst teams in the postseason. It will be fun to see Skubal pitch. This is obviously a massive game, and he’ll be charged up for it. He has to feel a pretty large burden on himself being the best pitcher on the team. What I actually wanted to say was that he’s the only good pitcher on this team. That’s probably overly harsh. But the bullpen algo has them last on this slate.
It’s all on Skubal in this one. I don’t see much chance of him not throwing a full allotment of pitches. The Tigers did somewhat rein him in this year, only having him exceed 100 pitches three times. But one of those times was 12 days ago, so he’s ready to roll.
Cleveland is dead last in everything offensively today. They project for us 47.2 DraftKings points as a unit. That’s 11 points behind the Padres, who are 7th today.
The thing about baseball is that your team has to score at least one run in order to win. The Tigers are hitting .239/.307/.398 with a 25% K% since August 1st. It’s been bad.
Gavin Williams finished his season with a bang. He struck out 27 hitters in his final 17 innings. He has given up just 17 earned runs in 70.1 innings since July 20th with a 27.6% K% and a 9.2% BB%.
Williams has a 3.03 JA ERA with a sparkling 1.64 WHIP+ in the second half. It’s an 18.4% K-BB% with a 12.5% SwStr%, a 36.4% Ball%, and just a .606 OPS allowed.
He recorded double-digit whiffs in each of his final five starts. He’s in good form. The fastball is averaging 97, and the velo has been up a bit lately.
The tricky part about facing the Tigers as a right-handed pitcher is avoiding the longball off the bats of Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene. Those two have strong marks in the matchups model against Williams.
The Tigers best change to win this bad boy is getting dominance from Skubal and hitting a timely homer or two. I like their chances.
DFS Plays
Tarik Skubal ($10,000)
Gavin Williams ($7,000)
Kerry Carpenter ($4,000)
Riley Greene ($4,600)
Parker Meadows ($2,600)
Prop Bet
My two angles:
Gavin Williams has a bad walk rate
Tarik Skubal is going to throw a bunch of pitches
The Skubal lines are insane. His strikeout line is basically nine. And the over/under on outs recorded is 18.5, so that would mean pitching into the seventh. And there are a ton of ways he doesn’t pitch into the seventh. So this is what I’m going with:
Gavin Williams 2+ Walks Allowed -180
Tarik Skubal 4+ Hits Allowed -210
We put those together for a +120 parlay.
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