> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # SIERA Beaters - URL: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/siera-beaters/ - Published: 2026-11-10T14:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-10T14:25:38.000Z - Author: Jon Anderson - Tags: 2027 Draft Prep I ran into **Michael Wacha** while writing the Royals preview. And that guy is something else. His ERA and SIERA by year: - 2023: 3.22 ERA | 4.43 SIERA - 2024: 3.35 ERA | 4.17 SIERA - 2025: 3.86 ERA | 4.61 SIERA - 2026: 3.32 ERA | 4.39 SIERA So he does it every year. There are guys who can do this. I explored this a bit last year in this post: [Andrew Abbott & Defying SIERAA formula for locating pitchers who are more likely to beat their ERA predictors![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F175f06a7-9586-4ec3-8f65-c77a6f38d7a9-2Ffavicon-48x48-737d4348-eec2-4ab0-8361-a2da33be68b3.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon A![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F1f93334a-8308-4338-ba2c-f45167b525f7_1024x1024-d2b9b11b-b8e0-4ae7-9e22-d8cc04226eda.jpg)](https://jona.substack.com/p/andrew-abbott-and-defying-siera) I was trying to figure out which pitchers are more likely to be able to post an ERA below their SIERA (or other indicators like FIP). I found that there are a lot of left-handed guys who throw a bunch of off-speed stuff that gets it done more often than others. So I'm revisiting it with an eye on 2027\. I went from 2021 through 2025 to see what happens the next year following a season where a pitcher beats his SIERA significantly. I used half a run as the mark to look for. Here are some results. Among 112 qualifying pitcher-seasons with next-season data: - **41 (36.6%)** repeated the full 0.50-run advantage, versus 25.8% for other starting seasons. - **76 (67.9%)** beat SIERA again by any amount. - Their average advantage shrank from **0.92 runs to 0.26 runs**. To put that in simple terms, if you see a guy beat their SIERA by 0.50 runs (example: a 3.50 ERA and a 4.00 SIERA), they have about a two-thirds chance of beating their SIERA by some amount the next year. But they're not likely to repeat by 0.5 runs again; instead, they average about 0.26 runs in ERA below their SIERA the following year. To take our example. If you have a 3.50 ERA with a 4.00 SIERA. If that pitcher posts a 4.00 SIERA again next year, you'd expect a 3.75 ERA simply based on this. SIERA doesn't park-adjust, which is probably part of this. Most pitchers pitch for the same team next year as they did this year, so they just carry over the park advantage or disadvantage the next year, which this doesn't adjust for. There are also a few names that factor heavily into this. **Michael Wacha, Max Fried,** and **Justin Steele** are the big three. Those guys just beat their SIERA every year and affect the whole sample. Here's the table of qualifiers by year and how they did the following year: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-109.png) "Repeat Rate" means they had an ERA at least 0.5 runs below their SIERA again the next year. "Any Beat" means they beat their SIERA again by any amount the next year. "Matched" means they had enough of a sample the next year to check it, and that's what the rates are calculated on. Last year, a new high: 42% of those 26 pitches repeated the 0.5 beat, and 65% of teams beat the SIERA by any margin, which followed a large uptick to 83% from 2024 to 2025\. But the numbers are mostly repeated through the years. The thesis to this is that beating SIERA isn't just totally random. There are ways to do it. Wacha and Fried themselves pretty much prove that. Let's look at some of the guys who stood out the most from 2026 and see if we can make a designation about what they'll do next year with what we know. --- # 2026 Qualifiers Here are the 40 pitchers with ERAs at least 0.5 runs below their SIERA. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-110.png) That's a lot of names to go through. If we look at only the top 400 in early ADP, we get it down to 28 names. Same graphic here, but the guys in the top 400 are highlighted in blue: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-111.png) That makes it more palatable. We also have four turbo-aces that we don't really have to analyze: - Jacob Misiorowski - Cam Schlittler - Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Chris Sale They're top-40 picks, top-10 SPs. They're all proven in my mind. You aren't drafting Cam Schlittler next year thinking you're getting another 1.95 ERA, are you? Do you really think Jacob Misiorowski will post another 38% K% next year? I don't think you should, but that doesn't mean they're mispriced in drafts. Just draft them early and hope they stay healthy; it's fine. From there, we can probably look at each guy. I'll give a "likelihood to repeat" grade for each; that would be how likely I think it is that they can do a very similar thing next year in terms of beating their SIERA. Here's the next ADP clump: - Drew Rasmussen - Dylan Cease - Chase Burns --- ### Drew Rasmussen | 2.67 ERA | 3.30 SIERA ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-140.png) I'm a little hesitant on Rasmussen as the #15 pitcher in drafts. He went for big volume because they frankly didn't have much of a choice. They were heading to the playoffs, McClanahan was hurt, and they didn't have a great rotation behind him. So they leaned into it, and he rewarded them. But now he's priced for mostly a repeat of last year, and I don't know if it's the right cost. I think he loses 15-20 innings next year, first of all. Secondly, I think he gives up more home runs next year. His Brl% against was 5.9%; those kinds of numbers usually go up toward the league average of 8%. His BABIP was low at .251, although that wasn't much out of line with his career, so that's basically fine. The thing I'm most concerned with is the 26% K%. That's just not that great, and it was way above what he had done previously. So you could see it come down to 23% again, and all of a sudden the peripheral numbers don't look much like a guy you're using as your SP1/SP2 on your fantasy team. I love the guy, and I've drafted him every year, but this new price is too much. **Likelihood to repeat: Low** --- ### Dylan Cease | 2.40 ERA | 3.19 SIERA ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-139.png) The K% shot up five points from the previous year, but his walk rate finished two points above his prior years at 11.4%. A lot of that came late (13% in the final two months) when he lost command and struggled to finish the season. A 3.19 SIERA is very good, and Cease is a strikeout machine. He clears 200 strikeouts easily every year. But with the up-and-down career he's had, and the walk rate we see there, it's pretty easy to see a much worse 2027 coming than what we saw in 2026\. But his ADP is only 56 early on. A lot of this stuff is baked into the price. The most surprising thing in his profile was the 11 homers he gave up. You couldn't get him out of the yard, and he was never that special in this regard before. Granted, he did add a changeup and a change as a pitcher. So some of that is explained, but the Brl% allowed was 5.5%, and that's coming up next year. **Likelihood to repeat: Very low** --- ### **Chase Burns | 2.68 ERA | 3.46 SIERA** I'm hesitant on Burns. You can read all about him here since the Reds preview is already done: [2027 Team Previews: Cincinnati RedsLink to the full series: 2027 Team Previews - MLB Data WarehouseMLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson We're onto the Reds, who finished last in the NL Central. Things are not looking good. They lost Hunter Greene to elbow surgery, and we won't see him in 2027\. Chase Burns had a![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/mlbdw_logo_2026-f2fdf412-0bf2-4dd8-b318-bb7d1cc99ccd.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/reds_preview-e4ac6e5a-7aa0-47ee-95ec-c126f965c3ad.png)](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/2027-team-previews-cincinnati-reds/) The reason for hesitation on him being priced like an SP2 is that his fastball wasn't all that great by the numbers, and he doesn't have a deep pitch mix. I think his fastball will be really good, but the results-based 105 MLB DW Grade on it don't make it look like an elite fastball right now. So he's getting so much of his success with the slider, and that makes you wonder. Plus, pitching in Cincinnati doesn't help either. I do think he'll develop, as mentioned. The fastball can easily improve, and maybe they'll use this healthy offseason after the successful 2026 season as a chance to develop some other pitches. So I'm not off Burns by any means, but it's no slam dunk that he'll be dominant next year. **Likelihood to repeat: Moderate if he improves the fastball results and develops the pitch mix.** --- Next ADP clump: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-112.png) ### Nolan McLean | 3.16 ERA | 3.80 SIERA ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-138.png) Two years in a row for McLean crushing his SIERA. Although that first season was just a part of the year. So we don't truly know who McLean is yet, but we have seen him consistently rack up called strikes and generate weak contact with the ridiculous movement he has. The full analysis on McLean is out in the Mets team preview. [2027 Team Previews: New York MetsWhat a disaster run the Mets are on. I guess we shouldn't be surprised at this point, but I didn't expect to be getting to them this early again. They went 74-88 and easily took last place in the NL East. There were injuries that didn't![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/mlbdw_logo_2026-c775e130-f84c-4ecd-a32c-35a4b52c20cd.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/metspreview-17866dc9-0a4a-45a7-831e-81d0f87bc7d0.png)](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/2027-team-previews-new-york-mets/) He's a bit of a unicorn pitcher. Just a 10.5% SwStr%, but a much higher 26% K%. He's an outlier in this regard. He threw seven different pitches and just froze dudes with the sinker/four-seam combo at the top of the arsenal and those high-movement breaking balls. So yeah, the normal rules don't all apply to McLean. **Likelihood to repeat: High** Just a reminder that a "high" grade is GOOD. That means I think that he will continually beat the SIERA. --- ### Parker Messick | 2.45 ERA | 3.51 SIERA ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-137.png) I correctly identified him as one of these guys in that post I wrote. A lefty with a delivery you don't see very often, and a dirty, dirty changeup. Plus fantastic command and a long history of generating soft contact. Just a .274 xwOBA allowed last year in his first full season staring down the best hitters in the world. No problems at all here. Now, he beat his SIERA by more than a run. Very few 2.45 ERAs are ever repeated, so the ERA is likely to come up, but the point of this post is the comparison of ERA and SIERA - and he's going to consistenly beat his indicators. That much is clear. **Likelihood to repeat: High** --- ### Max Fried | 2.80 ERA | 3.78 SIERA ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-136.png) Easiest one of the post! - Career ERA: 3.01 - Career SIERA: 3.67 He's done this every year since 2020. **Likelihood to repeat: Almost Guaranteed** --- ### Hunter Brown | 3.19 ERA | 3.88 SIERA ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-135.png) A McLean-like starter. Three straight years of dusting his SIERA. He does it with heavy sinkers that generate a bunch of called strikes and weak contact. It wasn't a good year for him in 2026, but he still put up a .282 xwOBA. His issue was walks. There was an injury in the middle of the year that might have messed with him. His walk rate ballooned to 12.2% after being around 8% prior. So I have no problem believing that this stuff continues. **Likelihood to repeat: High** --- That was an easy clump! Let's move to the next. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-113.png) Some more dudes that do it year in and year out. **Michael King** has the heavy sinker, which seems to be another trend in these sorts of pitchers. Get called strikes, get ground balls, really limit the long ball, beat your SIERA. He's done this every year of his career. I do think his ERA could come up from 3.21, but the worst he's ever done is 3.44\. So he's in the green here. The one difference is that King will end up on a new team next year, and leaving San Diego is probably going to be bad for his home run rate. But I don't have any trouble believing the ERA-SIERA gap will continue. Likelihood to repeat is high. --- **Sonny Gray**, I'm not so confident. His last four seasons, with 2026 on top and descending from there: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-114.png) So he did it in 2026, but it wasn't so in 2025 and 2024\. He has sometimes had a home run issue, and he's up there in age as well. But he throws a lot of different looks at hitters and threw five pitches more than 15% of the time. His lone whiff pitch at this point seems to be the sweeper. Here are the SwStr% and other stuff on the pitches from last year: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-115.png) That's the profile of a guy who can beat the indicators. But he didn't do it the two years prior. The thing with him is the variable HR/9\. 1.14 in 2024, 1.25 in 2025, and then 0.85 last year. So that's new. I'm not so confident. **Likelihood to repeat: Medium** --- **Max Meyer** and his 2.68 ERA last year. He was begging for regression before the injury, so he kinda lucked out to get hurt when he did. Of course that's a ridiculous thing to say, but you get it. He can tout a 2.68 ERA now instead of the likely three-something it would have turned into. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-134.png) He gave up a .262 BABIP and just 0.89 HR/9 despite not being a heavy ground-baller. The story with Meyer is that he has no fastball. One of the worst heaters in the game. But at least he seems to know that. Pitch mix: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-116.png) Look at the four-seamer! 5.3% SwStr% and a .378 xwOBA with seven homers on 430 pitches. It's so awful. So he's out there ripping 65% sweepers and sliders. And they're both great, but it's really not what you ever see from a consistently good starting pitcher. I think he's in trouble. **Likelihood to repeat: Low** --- And then **Sandy Alcantara** and **Ranger Suarez**. Specialists in this field. Sandy throws the heavy sinkers; Suarez has the pinpoint command with his left arm. I have no trouble believing that both guys can repeat this, as they've been doing for most of their careers. **Likelihood to repeat: High** --- Next clump! ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-117.png) ### Walbert Urena | 2.97 ERA | 4.18 SIERA ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-133.png) I've said "heavy sinker" three times already, so this is the fourth. But he's the heavy sinker king. 98.1 mph on that bad boy. A 56% GB%. He's the ground ball king. Just a .281 xwOBA last year. He's so much like his former teammate **Jose Soriano**, except that he has this devastating changeup. A 19% SwStr% on that pitch at 34% usage; just a .221 xwOBA. I'm not saying he's a sub-three ERA guy with his questionable command, but I know that you'll see elite HR/9 from him. **Likelihood to repeat: High** --- ### Troy Melton | 2.76 ERA | 4.34 SIERA ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-132.png) He looked like a burgeoning ace in his first few weeks. But it looked fake to me. And then it started to regress, and then he got hurt. Why I never liked Melton is the low SwStr% (11.6%) and high FB% (23%). He gave up 13 homers, which I thought was lucky since it was a 1.03 HR/9\. I think dudes like this are 1.25 HR/9 guys. He's a righty who throws more than 70% four-seamers, cutters, and sliders. That's a recipe for home runs. And the pitches aren't even all that nasty with those lower swinging strike rates. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-118.png) Plus he had elbow inflammation. *They say* he's fine and there's *no structural damage*, but just count me out on the guy. People are gonna see that he's young and had this ERA and overvalue him. **Likelihood to repeat: Low** --- ### Shane McLanahan | 3.36 ERA | 4.15 SIERA ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-131.png) It's not really about this stuff with McClanahan; it's just about if he's healthy. It was good to see him get to 118 innings, but he was hurt at the end of the year to the point where he wasn't on the playoff roster at any point. But he is a lefty with a sick changeup in a pitcher's park, so that does help a lot. **Likelihood to repeat: High, but volume is a serious concern.** --- ### Joey Cantillo | 3.62 ERA | 4.24 SIERA The lefty changeup man! He was another guy we predicted would do this in that article last year. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-130.png) When is your weekly garbage night? Because Cantillo's fastball should be on the curb once every seven days. 5.9% SwStr%, .374 xwOBA, 91 MLB DW Grade. One of the worst four-seamers you'll find, and he threw it a third of the time. You kinda have to throw your fastball as a starter. So I think he'll beat his SIERA again, but that doesn't mean I want anything to do with the guy on a fantasy team. I think he's destined for the bullpen, or worse. He's a headache waiting to happen, but I guess it's already happened. --- ### Michael Wacha | 3.32 ERA | 4.39 SIERA Poster boy, you already know! **Likelihood to repeat: Almost guaranteed (but he is old)** --- Clump time. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-119-1.png) We can group these guys together and save a little time. **Nick Martinez** and **Clay Holmes** are the righties with sinkers/changeups and believably low HR/9\. Martinez surely can't repeat his 2026 season. He'll take the win, get a nice contract, and be grateful to the Rays for the rest of his life. But he's not doing a freaking' 3.10 ERA ever again, and the 4.63 SIERA screams that he could be in real trouble. Holmes is a frustrating dude, and he was awful with the Cubs. But he thinks he can do better than $12 million somewhere else as he elected free agency through declining the player option. I get it; he's young enough to get a multi-year deal. But he gets few whiffs and doesn't throw a ton of strikes. So he's really just out there holding onto the fact that his sinker/sweeper/changeup rarely get hit out of the yard. That can work, and he'll probably continue to beat his SIERA, but I don't really like him for fantasy leagues due to the high WHIP and lack of strikeouts. Both are highly likely to repeat the SIERA-beating. --- And then we have the left-handed changeup throwers. **Andrew Alvarez, Robbie Ray, Eduardo Rodriguez,** and **Matthew Boyd.** **Ray**: Not buying it. He was great in AT&T Park and pretty dookie outside of there. It was not good with the Padres, and he's ancient at 35 years old (aka one year younger than me). The changeup isn't even a featured pitch for him, so I don't think he's likely at all to repeat the indicator-beating. **E-Rod**: One of the wildest seasons you'll see. 2.89 ERA with a 10.3% K-BB% and 4.62 SIERA. I think he'll beat his SIERA again with the tricky command he has, but he's also quite old, and beating his SIERA by a half run again would mean a 4.12 ERA... **Boyd**: He used to get some strikeouts and just struggle with the long ball. But the K% fell to 18.5% last year, plus he was a high fly ball guy who benefited from a low 13% HR/FB. But yes, the changeup fools guys consistently. He can beat the SIERA again, but it's like an E-Rod situation except with more health issues. --- I want to look at **Andrew Alvarez** a bit more closely. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-129.png) He hooked the Nationals up with some good innings late to help them finish out a positive season. A 24% K% with a 10.8% BB%. So that's a decent strikeout rate, but a lot of walks. He was out there throwing 32% curveballs, and you can see why. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-120.png) Bad fastball... Cantillo-levels. But at least a 49% GB% on it and a slider/sinker/changeup to throw in there as well. Can this work over 175 innings? I sort of doubt it, but you can see why he had some success with the nice breaking ball combo he has. Plus, he has the sinker there as an option. I think he'll be a yearly SIERA beater, but that doesn't mean the ERA will be any good. I hate the bad command, and he's destined for poor WHIPs. So I don't hate him as a super late-round pick, but I'm not seeing much upside for him to be any better than he was late last year. That seemed like the best run he'll have. --- That leaves **Brandon Pfaadt** left to comment on. A 4.38 SIERA, a 3.77 ERA. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-127.png) Who can forget his magical run from late June through mid-August when he re-entered the rotation? I mean, probably most of the world can forget that, but I can't. > 9 GS, 1.15 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 14.4% K%, 3.4% BB% He was just piping strikes on the corners and generating soft contact galore. But the 14.4% K% was a bright red flag. He finished the year with a 5.19 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in his final seven starts (43.1 IP). Again, it's a horrible fastball. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-121.png) And the breaking balls weren't impressive either. But he was able to post a strong .304 xwOBA. His MLB DW pitch grades were all *fine*, but not good. It looks to me like he just had fantastic in-zone command but was really easy to make contact against. So lots of contact, but very little hard contact. Just a 35% Hard Hit% against. Is that something you can pull off for 25+ starts? Doesn't seem like it. And it's less believable from a guy who gave up a ton of homers in years prior. I think Pfaadt could hang around at the back end of the D'Backs rotation, but no, I'm not buying this ERA-SIERA gap. --- One last quick clump, but we're past 450 ADP at this point. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-122-1.png) **Keider Montero** is lined up to make the Tigers rotation again. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-126.png) He's the #3 right now behind Valdez & Melton. He posted a 3.48 ERA and a sick 1.08 WHIP in 155 innings (25 starts). It was a mix of long relief with traditional starts. Lots of luck involved. A .231 BABIP and 13% HR/FB. The pitch mix: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-123.png) Pretty gross. Two bad fastballs, but that's better than one. The problem for his SIERA-beating is that the offspeed stuff wasn't the reason. The changeup was thrown only 14% of the time. It was good with a .231 xwOBA, but not a ton of whiffs and a bad strike rate overall. So that's not it. He just seemed to get pretty lucky. I don't see him repeating this stuff next year. --- **Cal Quantrill** had one of the best ERAs of the second half. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-125.png) That was one of the biggest surprises of the season. It seemed like he was out of the MLB for good, but he did a nice job with the Rangers in 110 innings. That's an understatement; he posted a 2.86 ERA in those innings. His SIERA was 4.26\. The .239 BABIP shows a lot of luck. It was just a 12.6% K-BB%. That was the best he'd done in the bigs going back to 2023, so he did pitch better, but not good enough for us to believe in. He does have a good splitter and a mid-90s sinker. So in that way, I can believe he can beat his SIERA in the future. But beating it by a quarter of a run still puts him at a 4.00 ERA, and that's not what we want. And that assumes he stays in a rotation all year, which doesn't seem likely since he'll be 32 years old with a really poor resume prior to the second half of last year. I do think he can beat his SIERA with the sinker, the splitter, and pitching in Arlington. But I think the SIERA will be too bad for that to even matter. --- One last pitcher I want to highlight: **JT Ginn**. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-124.png) A 3.71 ERA with a 4.43 SIERA. And it's believable. He throws a good sinker that sits between 93 and 95\. He has a changeup behind it. So he gets a lot of ground balls and soft contact (.311 xwOBA). That will work a lot better once they get into their new park; it's really tough to have success without a high K% in this Sacramento park, so I'm not thinking Ginn can break out in 2027, but I do think he's a guy who can crush his SIERA most years. ---