> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Stupid Early ADP - First Base - URL: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/stupid-early-adp-first-base/ - Published: 2026-11-05T19:19:10.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-05T19:19:10.000Z - Author: Jon Anderson - Tags: 2027 Draft Prep, Early ADP Post series found here: [Early ADP - MLB Data Warehouse![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/mlbdw_logo_2026-f9f5cfeb-67d6-46b3-b876-64f067b263a8.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/publication-cover-d3028f80-348b-4d93-9fb0-1f16a2fe0872.jpg)](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/tag/early-adp/) --- First base today! I went through catcher in clumps because there aren't a ton of names there. But I want to get back to just hitting the most interesting names that stand out to me. # The Top Tier This is a clump, just the thing I said I wouldn't do. But the whole top tier is of interest to me! Because it looks a lot different than it has for the last several years. All of these guys are going in the top 35 early on: - Pete Alonso - Nick Kurtz - Sal Stewart - Miguel Vargas - Ben Rice Gone are the days of Vlad/Freeman/Harper/Olson being at the top. **Pete Alonso** remains in the top tier, but a bunch of young guys have taken over in tier one. And I'll say, I don't feel warm and fuzzy about any of them! Alonso's 31\. He hit 43 homers in his debut with the Orioles, with 100 runs and 113 RBI. His consistency keeps him an easy top pick at the position. But #1? A second-round pick? How often has he earned that in his career? He could hit .250, couldn't he? He hit .237 in 2024 and .218 in 2023\. Maybe we should throw that out in favor of his .270 average over the last two years. But at the end of the day, this is a guy who will be 32 next year, who mostly excels in fantasy with homers and RBI, and the Orioles are a potentially bad team. I'm not saying I won't rank him first. He probably deserves that crown, but I just don't like him as a second-round pick. I guess it's just a point about there not being many game-breakers at the position. There are relatively few steals at first base, and it's a position full of old guys at the top. I've got some problems with **Nick Kurtz** (K%, health, struggles vs. lefties), I'm wondering if **Sal Stewart** will really steal bases in the future, I'm hesitant on buying into **Miguel Vargas'** sudden breakout season. But somebody has to be #1, somebody has to be #2, etc. I don't think the order of the list is necessarily wrong; it just doesn't seem like a position I'll be wanting to dive into super early in 2027 drafts, but time will tell, I suppose. --- ### Ben Rice | ADP 32 | 1B #5 The appeal last year was the catcher eligibility, and those days are gone. But he looks a lot like Alonso, doesn't he? But four years younger! .264/.363/.534 with 41 bombs, 105 runs, and 97 RBI. I thought he'd be #1 or #2 honestly, and here he is at #5\. Is that just because people are disappointed he's not a catcher anymore? He was right there with Alonso in production last year among 1Bs. His ADP is close, there's not a big gap, but I don't really get why Stewart and Vargas would go ahead of him. --- ### Jac Caglianone | ADP 72 | 1B #8 The Steamer projections have him as the #1 guy. I'm kinda low on Steamer, they're rudimentary / quick projections, and I don't think they take into account some of the stuff that can help a projection system at this point. But the guy is still 23 years old coming off of a 23-homer season with a .289/.340/.494 slash line. And something seemed to click after the first couple of months. He hit .297/.341/.514 after April ended and .317/.360/.554 from June 1st on. You could be looking at a perennial #1 first baseman, but the price isn't there yet. I guess the case against him is that he strikes out a good bit and still hits a lot of ground balls. His home run rate was *only* 4.2%. So if things continue exactly as they have, he's not a real 40-homer threat. He'll need to tweak the swing a bit to get there, but I think he can, and he looks like a really nice AVG + HR + RBI guy to me. --- ### Vlad Guerrero Jr. | ADP 84 | 1B #10 144 games, nine homers, 56 RBI. You might have thought you were going to see Vlad fly down the board past ADP #100, but that's not the case. And I think that's right, this seems fair to me. We expect a bounce-back. He has a .288/.366/.484 slash line since 2021, so it's foolish to think he just sucks now. --- ### Bryce Eldridge | ADP 112 | 1B #12 The position thins out pretty quickly. After Rafael Devers at 1B #9, you don't have any true studs. So that pushes Eldridge up a bit. But it's striking to see him this high. He had a nice season (.828 OPS, 17 bombs in 107 games), but the K% is up there at 26%, he stole one base, and he has this home park and bad lineup to overcome. The upside is immense, his talent level is awesome, but I still see some downside. I don't think he's a lock by any means for 25+ homers playing in the worst park for left-handed power. --- ### Munetaka Murakami | ADP 139 | 1B #14 Some people are going to think this price is stupid low. There's quite a group of Murakami stans out there. He hit 35 homers in 127 games with 77 RBI. But but but ... a .207 batting average. He hit .181/.322/.413 with 15 homers in 307 PAs after the injury. That's still a 30-homer pace, but the 38% K% in that sample held his batting average way down and he went weeks at a time without doing much of anything. I kinda think he's a potential landmine. The Cal Raleigh 2026 season could happen to him. The price is fine, I'm not making a comment about that, I just think that a lot of people will be expecting him to be a lot higher than this, and I don't think he should be. --- ### Jake Bauers | ADP 165 | 1B #17 Where will he play? Can he repeat the .874 OPS and 26-homer season he had with the Brewers to rescue his career? I have my doubts. I typically don't like to buy on these one-of-nowhere breakouts. His K% was still high at 27%; the quality of contact was just so good that he saved him. I'm on regression watch, but so is the field. This price is not by any means expecting a repeat of 2026\. So it's good. Where he signs via free agency will matter quite a bit. --- ### Willson Contreras | ADP 169 | 1B #19 People just don't like the guy, I guess. He hit .277/.388/.518 with a .905 OPS and 27 bombs in 130 games, and here he is barely in the top 20 options at first base. Age is part of it; he's 34\. This was also his first time anywhere close to a .900 OPS, so he overperformed his career marks. But it was his first full-time season not playing any catcher, so it wasn't a shock that his offensive production went up. I like the price! Dudes like Vinnie Pasquantino, Luis Garcia Jr., and Jake Bauers are going well ahead of him. And they all have downside too. --- ### Curtis Mead | ADP 189 | 1B #22 One half of a good season and he's a top 200 pick, eh? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-83.png) Not sure I get that! He was tragically bad prior to this, albeit in limited playing time overall. Now he's on the Red Sox, so people like that I guess. But I don't see myself clicking on Curtis Mead in the top 225. --- ### Michael Busch | ADP 223 | 1B #26 Busch behind Mead? The guy has his flaws. He'll be 29, he doesn't swing the bat very hard, he's never hit lefties super well. He hit just 20 homers and for a .242 batting average in 160 games. So maybe the 2026 price was just wrong all along. I guess I get it, but I was surprised to see this sort of discount on the Cubs run-producer. ***I've got more names and some prospect sleepers for you below the paywall; sign up today for just $7.99/month to get the full offseason content schedule.*** [**Check out the ADP and projections dashboard here**](https://flb-projections-2027.jon2anderson.chatgpt.site/?ref=mlbdatawarehouse.com#adp) --- ### Spencer Torkelson | ADP 278 | 1B #31 Am I crazy for still kinda liking the guy? He's 27 now, it's been awhile since he was the #1 overall pick. He's hit no better than .234 in his career and has six career steals. So yeah, it's pretty much *empty power*, and not a ton of power anyways. 31 homers in 2025, 26 last year. I suppose we're past the breakout phase. But his air pull rate is really good, and this K% from 2026 (that was his major problem) was uncharacteristic. He was around 26% for his career prior. So if he keeps pulling it in the air and drops the K% back down to 25%, I think you've got an easy 30-homer guy. --- It's not a great-looking position to me. But that's kind of the nature of it. You put your big, less-athletic guys there who can hit tanks. That turns into a lot 25+ homer, 90+ RBI guys without many steals or high batting averages. The truly versatile guys like Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper have aged out. So we're left with a pretty *meh* position. Some thoughts on the prospects that could be next: --- ### Charlie Condon | ADP 325 | 1B #38 Our #2 Rockies prospect, and he has a shot to make the club right away. Minor league stats from 2026: 130 G, .273/.390/.514, 27 HR, 8 SB. Big EVs (112.6 max, 105.7 90th), decent foot speed to maybe get him 10+ steals. But a 25% K% and poor 79% Zone Contact%. I suppose it'll be hot-and-cold, and who knows if he'll adjust to the elevation changes stuff. But he's one of the better 1B prospects in the game and deserves some attention as a potential high-upside option at a position that doesn't have a ton of upside. --- ### Ralphy Velazquez | ADP 352 | 1B #40 The next big thing for the Guardians, maybe. He's their #1 prospect and coming off a .933 OPS with 30 homers in the minors. He played half a season in AAA, so he's knocking on the door. Really nice 20% K% and 11% BB%. Lots of barrels, good air pull, but an aggressive approach with a lower contact rate that could make him pretty easy for big league pitchers to get out at first. Also not much in the speed department with two steals last year. But big power potential in an organization that seems pretty good at developing players. Although maybe they don't know what to do with a power bat since they never find any of them. --- ### Blake Burke | ADP 669 | 1B #64 I think I'd just take this guy in the 600s every time in a DC. The main reason the Brewers aren't going to bring back Bauers is the money. But the second reason is probably Blake Burke. The guy hit 34 bombs and stole 29 bags in AA - AAA last year ***in 127 games***. That's right, a near 30-30 season in 127 games. He swings a ton (55%), chases a ton (40%), but does have a good Z-Contact% rate (84.4%). Maybe he'll come up and really struggle; he'll probably continue to chase a lot and get embarrassed often in his first look at MLB pitching, but power + speed is obviously incredibly enticing. And he could find his way into the Brewers lineup pretty early on since they'll have a hole there against right-handed pitching.