> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Stupid Early ADP - Second Base - URL: https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/stupid-early-adp-second-base/ - Published: 2026-11-13T16:37:37.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-13T16:37:37.000Z - Author: Jon Anderson - Tags: 2027 Draft Prep, Early ADP [**Read the full series here**](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/tag/early-adp/) I've been making some upgrades to the tool that will host the projections and ADP Dashboard this year. There's a table in there with historical ADP and charts and whatnot. Check that out here; it will keep being improved and updated with new projections and draft results, so bookmark that link. [2027 ADP + Projections DashboardData-First Fantasy Baseball![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/mlbdw_logo_2026-10b284cd-eccd-4e34-afe3-4ea0ad9703fe.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/dashboards-b43c24f5-05b1-4bd3-aa04-c1760a95737e.png)](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/2027-adp-projections-dashboard/) But let's take a quick run through second base today. # The Top of the Board This is interesting. 1. Fernando Tatis Jr: ADP 5 2. Brice Turang 33 3. Jazz Chisholm 72 4. JJ Wetherholt 99 Only one guy in the first two rounds, only four in the top 100\. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/mlbdw_2027_adp_positions.png) I guess we're completely forgetting about Tati's first three months with this price. But that's fair enough because he finished with a .289 batting average with 25 homers and 38 steals. He hit one homer before June, four in June, three in July, nine in August, and 8 in September. He and PCA were the most valuable hitters in the fantasy game in the second half. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-204.png) It's always better to lean on the full season rather than splitting things up, and I suppose it's better to see the elite production come later in the year rather than in the beginning if you can't get it all season long. I'd be a little hesitant on Tatis at pick #5, but then you realize that he's by far the best option at second base, so you get a little bit of an edge on the league by having that guy at second. So it's fine. **Brice Turang** stole just 19 bags, so he's really not the elite steals guy he was a few years ago (remember he stole 50 in 2024). But you get a bunch of runs and extra homers now. He scored 102 times and drove in 100, which was pretty remarkable. I'm not sure a 202 R+RBI season is something you should bank on happening again, but it's two years in a row now with around 20 homers and he's going to steal at least 15 bags. The price isn't inappropriate, and he goes in the middle of the third round, so that can't go too wrong on you. After those two (Tatis & Turang), you're done with the five-category guys. **Chisholm** is a free agent after hitting .231 with a .711 OPS in a sort of dud season in the walk year. He will very likely end up in a worse park for hitting homers, and the best you've gotten from him batting average-wise over the last three years is .249, so you're getting hurt there. He's a tough guy to roster. The BRL% fell from 15% to 8.2%. He earned his fantasy dollars with the 41 steals, and that's about how I'd value him. Just a guy you draft to bolster your steals, and you hope and pray he can get to 20+ homers again with a batting average above .240. **JJ Wetherholt** could be a guy we see big second-year growth on. He started the year very well, but wasn't all that great in the latter part of the year. He finished hitting .242 with 17 homers and 14 steals in1 39 games. So not a great fantasy season. If he wasn't a 24-year-old former #1 prospect, you wouldn't feel great about that. But you're expecting some improvement, and the skills are certainly there for 20+ homers, 15+ steals, and a .260+ batting average. But it's not a guarantee. --- So that's it for the top 100\. It's not a very pretty picture. But that means we have to know the mid-round guys well, because you'll likely be drafting your second baseman in the double-digit rounds. I'm not going through each name, we're doing that in the team previews series. [**Follow along with all team previews here**](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/tag/2027-team-previews/) But I'll pick out some of the names that are of most interest to me, either positively or negatively. ### Ketel Marte | ADP 108 | 2B #5 It seems like he should be switching teams. He disappeared for a day or two there right when the Diamondbacks were pushing for a playoff spot, so there's a *disgruntlement factor*. Grammarly is telling me that *disgruntlement* might actually be a word. Marte turned 33 on the same day that I turned 36 (October 12th). So the age is a problem; you don't know about his disposition or attitude, and the production came down in 2026\. He's stolen a max of eight bags and he's at four in each of the last two years. His power has always been tough to rely on, and he fell down to 22 homers last year. The thing he always did best was batting average, but that came down to .249 last year after three years above .275\. The good news on that front: - 2024: .289 xBA - 2025: .285 xBA - 2026: .280 xBA We can buy the positive regression on his batting average. If he gets traded, the new park could help. Arizona isn't the best place for power. His splits have always been notable. He has done most of his damage as a right-handed hitter. That kept up last year. - vs. LHP: .307/.342/.571, .380 xwOBA But he was not good as a lefty: - vs. RHP: .230/.300/.386, .335 xwOBA And two-thirds of starters are right-handed. Maybe this is where the age is really getting to him. Maybe he's just not that good of a left-handed hitter anymore, and that would be trouble if it's the case. It's not easy to love Marte, but we do have to call this an ADP buy-low: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-205.png) You're getting a 70-pick discount from last year. You can understand why. The downside is considerable, but the upside is still a .280 batting average with 25 homers and a bunch of counting stats if he stays healthy in a good lineup. So I like that. I'll always like the proven veteran bat that falls several rounds in ADP due to a down year. So he'd be near the top of my priority list early on. Let's not get weighed down by the narrative stuff. --- ### Luke Keaschall | ADP 115 | 2B #6 People seem to love this kid, and I've never really seen it myself. 152 games last year, just ten homers and 20 steals. His attempt rate on the basepaths was only 14%, so he's not an elite source of steals, and there's not much power there at all with a 101.4 EV90 and max of 107.3\. You need every bit of that high batting average, and I hate counting on players like that. We see it all the time - the low-bat-speed, batting-average guys having years where they fall 20-30 points on that. It's just not a reliable tool for a guy like Keaschall. I think you're risking a ten-homer, 18-steal, .260 batting average from Keaschall with your 8th or 9th round pick. --- ### Brandon Lowe | ADP 132 | 2B #7 Another risky pick on a veteran. Lowe had a near-career year with the Pirates, and now he's likely to end up on a new club at age 32\. 2026 was his first year with more than 135 games since 2021\. It was his best batting average and the most homers he's hit since 2021\. He still struck out a bunch and struggled against lefties. The main reason to balk at him as the #7 second baseman is his health. If he has another season where he misses 30+ games, he's not going to pay this off. Very limited in batting average and just a couple of steals in the profile. You need health, and you need 27+ bombs to make it work. I'd be out on that. --- BUT, after Lowe, it's a bunch of guys with major issues. There aren't even a ton of guys who you know will play 130+ games after this. This next wave is: - Nico Hoerner (ADP 152) - Bryson Stott (ADP 160) - Sam Antonacci (ADP 168) - Travis Bazzana (ADP 169) - Kody Clemens (ADP 188) It's a good position to take some batting average and steals and build up your power numbers elsewhere. **Nico Hoerner** and **Bryson Stott** are great for that. Hoerner is a batting-average bounce-back guy. He hit .263 after being an easy .270 guy, and a .280+ guy most of the time. His stolen base attempt rates, though, have been trending down, and he's a single-digit homer guy. [Batting Average RegressorsJust a big old picture of TJ Rumfield as the featured graphic. What a strange season he had. Today, we’ll look at batting average regressors. This is simple, easy, but good to do. And you guys like reading baseball articles in November, you sickos. I remember when I first![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/mlbdw_logo_2026-5e099e0d-f03b-421d-a3f9-8d3c27624559.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/rumfield-3d018822-184b-41b0-ab86-79a5477950fa.jpg)](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/batting-average-regressors/) You're needing a .290 batting average and 25 steals from him, and I think he can do that, but it's not a guarantee with the aggression on the bases coming down (16% attempt rate in 2026 after 19% in 2025 and 22% in 2024). **Stott** was a great value last season, but the price has come up on him after his 27-steal season (with a 100% Success%). He hit just ten homers and hit .256, though. So it wasn't all that great of a fantasy season for him, but he got there with 155 games played, 71 runs, and 67 RBI in addition to that nice collection of steals and non-zero homer production. That brings us to a duo of young guys who broke into the league in 2026\. **Sam Antonacci** and **Travis Bazzana.** Bazzana had a great May after the call-up with an .874 OPS, three homers, and eight steals. But he struggled until September before hitting six bombs in that final month with a .280 batting average. At the end of the year, it was a .245/.335/.408 slash line with 15 homers and 19 steals. You'll take it. The reason to pick him is that he's a former #1 overall pick with a guaranteed lineup spot and upside in both homers and steals. He didn't strike out very much, and he knows how to take a walk - the plate discipline is very solid, especially for a young guy. We don't really view him as a power upside guy, just a 108 MAX EV, but he got the ball into the air a good bit. I think there's downside for 15 homers, but he should do a little bit of everything, and maybe he'll make the proper adjustments and really improve. As for **Antonacci**, it's a similar profile. A very nice 15% K% with a 90% Zone-Contact%. He swiped 20 bags in 140 games with a 17% attempt rate, but a bad 71% success rate. There are questions everywhere. Is he just a 10-12 homer guy? Will he keep running with getting thrown out 30% of the time last year? The EVs are right there with Bazzana, 108 max, 101.4 90th. It's a spread-out profile. But he does have a nice batting average floor with that elite contact rate and .283 xBA last season. I like him a bit more than Bazzana, I think. But they are very similar. If you don't go into 2B early, you're going to have a weakness there, so I like the idea of taking a young guy with a guaranteed role who can improve. **Kody Clemens,** to me, feels like a guy who could prove to be a one-hit wonder. It tells you something that he took until age 29 to break into the MLB as a regular. I'd be very hesitant on that at this price. --- Now we're into the 200s. And it's thin. ### Javier Sanoja | ADP 244 | 2B #17 Sanoja is eligible at 3B and OF as well, so that boosts the price. It also boosts his chances of staying in the Marlins lineup. It was a pretty wild season for Sanoja. After not being on anybody's radar prior to the season and hitting just .260/.316/.366 with one homer in the first two months, he hit .308/.340/.491 with ten homers and eight steals in his final 356 PAs. That's like a 17-15 pace with a .300 batting average. He's only 24 years old, so maybe he just finally figured something out. He's fast, but he's not out there running all of the time. Just a 14% attempt rate last year, down from 17% in 2025, in 118 games. What I don't see is the power. A max EV of 108.4, a 90th of 102.0\. He posted a 19% FB%, which is incredibly low. Sanoja looks like a less-certain Nico Hoerner type player, but the cost is much cheaper. His .272 xBA was encouraging along with that elite 92% Zone Contact%, so as long as he can find a way to stay in the lineup, you could have a .270 hitter with 25+ steals and 7-12 homers next year. If you're waiting forever on 2B and just want to use the position to get some steals; Sanoja is a guy I'd consider. At this cost, you can replace him without a big hit to your team if things aren't working early in the year. --- ### Brett Baty | ADP 280 | 2B #20 I'm a little surprised he's in the top 300\. It's no guarantee that he's an everyday player for the Mets; we'll have to see what they do in free agency. Baty certainly hasn't taken a job and run with it so far. But there is good news. The most appealing part for me in NFBC drafts is that he has eligibility at 1B, 2B, 3B, and OF. That's a plus. You can't acquire players through free agency or trades in these leagues, so it's nice to have a guy that you can move around when different guys on your team get hurt. That eligibility also keeps him in the Mets lineup more regularly since they can use him to replace so many different players on the team. His best tool is raw power, but it hasn't quite developed yet. Maybe it never will, but at least there's potential. 114 max EV, 106.7 EV90, 105.7 on fly balls. He needs to figure out how to pull it in the air more often (13%), but it could happen. His K% isn't a huge concern after a 26% K% and 81% Zone Contact% in 2026. He's *probably* a platoon bat, we should note that. Just 91 PAs against lefties last year and a .205 xBA with a .279 xwOBA. But I do think he could be a guy who gives you a pace of 25-30 homers while he's in there. What you're not going to get is 155 games and a high batting average. But around pick 300, with this position eligibility, I'm in on Baty once more. --- ### Pedro Ramirez | ADP 290 | 2B #22 There's breakout potential. [**There's talk in the news**](https://chicago.suntimes.com/cubs/2026/11/11/cubs-free-agents-mlb-offseason-left-field-right-field-catcher-ian-happ-seiya-suzuki-carson-kelly-miguel-amaya-pedro-ramirez-matt-shaw?ref=mlbdatawarehouse.com) recently about him replacing **Seiya Suzuki** (who will exit via free agency) in a corner outfield spot. If that doesn't happen, he'd need an injury to Bregman/Swanson/Hoerner to find regular reps. But it makes a lot of sense that they'd find a way to get him a chance. Because his minor league numbers last year were terrific: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-207.png) 19 steals, a 36% Attempt%, and nine homers in just 196 PAs. He was crushing. That got him called up to the bigs, but since he was just an option in the infield for them, he couldn't find regular reps with the very good infield they had. He's just 22 years old. His barrel rate wasn't good at 4%, but it's not for lack of EV. He maxed out at 109 and got to 104.1 EV90 overall. One thing he'll need to improve on is the EVs on fly balls (99.3 last year, which was awful, but it was fewer than 50 fly balls hit, so a small sample). I don't think Ramirez has any chance to replicate that 21.6 PA/HR he had in the minors, but he's a potential batting average plus with a bunch of steals, and he does have a lot more raw power than some of the other guys we just talked about like Keaschall and Sanoja. So I'm fully in on Pedro. I think he's this cheap right now because of the uncertain playing time. Him moving to the outfield would be huge for him. It's a great buy right now. --- ### Connor Norby | ADP 290 | 2B #24 Norby also plays third and first, so he has that triple eligibility we like so much. But do you buy the sudden relevance after he ended up on the Rockies? - with MIA: .205/.313/.325, 30% K%, 10% BB% - with COL: .302/.387/.457, 25% K%, 11% BB% We know that Coors helps batting average. What is more surprising is the five-point reduction in K% with a point gain in BB%. He was very good with the Rockies in those 150 PAs. But yeah, it's 150 PAs, and his BABIP was .336\. The xStats check out in that time: .277 xBA, .351 xwOBA. There are a lot of issues with Norby's profile. Not much EV, a middling stolen base attempt rate, and a well below-average contact rate. So I think the Rockies breakout was fake. At the end of the day, you're paying this price because of 150 PAs. And that's not a good general strategy in my mind. The Rockies also jack around with their lineup. [**Per Mike Kurland over at The Lineup Report**](https://thelineupreport.com/team/115?type=R&season=2026&ref=mlbdatawarehouse.com), Norby had a 77% True Start Rate with the Rockies, starting 34 out of 44 possible games. He was in there 94% of the time against lefties and 67% of the time against righties. His performance last year should boost that early in the year, but I don't know if he's good enough to keep this job, and the Rockies are generally very willing to work different guys into the lineup when someone isn't performing. So I'm out on Norby. --- ### Cole Young | ADP 310 | 2B #25 Sometimes you just want a guy who is in the lineup. Young played 160 games last year and won the Gold Glove Award. You can debate if he deserved that, but he did win it, so he should be set up for an everyday role with the Mariners. He spent some time at the top of the lineup against righties, but did end up making most of his stats in the bottom half of the lineup. Another graphic here from The Lineup Report: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-208.png) He's not much of a hitter, which I guess is burying the lede. Just a .244/.311/.380 slash line with a .690 OPS and 17 homers. But that's not awful from a guy you're drafting to play every single day and rack up some volume in that way. Young won't win you your league, but the 2B position sucks, and he should be able to volume his way into the top 20 even if he doesn't make strides in his third year in the bigs as a 23-year old. And then, what if he improves? What if he gets better as a hitter? He could hit 20+ bombs with a .250 batting average in 160 games. I'm down for that. --- # Deep Upside Options ### Angel Genao | ADP 425 | 2B #35 You have to know about Genao! We interviewed Nationals pitching prospect **Travis Sykora** in the summer, and Genao was one guy he highlighted as a special hitter he saw in the minors. So that's a vote of confidence from a high profile pitching prospect. Genao played just 43 games for the Guardians and hit .213/.281/.291 with two homers. Not good. But I'm seeing growth coming. - 86.4% Zone Contact% - 15.1% K% - 8% BB% - 109 max EV - 104.0 EV90 He has a little bit of bat speed and a very strong contact profile. His trouble was launch angles with an alarming 70% GB% on 106 balls in play. Genao hit .301/.404/.474 in AAA with 13 homers in 96 games, adding on 11 steals. He's decently quick as a runner, but wasn't on first base very much to use that. We know the Guardians like to steal bags, so I think that's a part of his game that will develop as well. Maybe it won't work, maybe the 2026 struggles were a sign of the future, but this is a nice prospect who should get a chance to play in 2027, and there's a lot to like in the profile. It's also basically a free pick that you won't have to use in your starting lineup early in the year while you see how it goes. --- ### Nick Gonzales | ADP 420 | 2B #34 The Pirates had Brandon Lowe last year, so Gonzales' bat had to fit in mostly at third base. But I don't think Lowe is returning to Pittsburgh, which moves Gonzales over to his natural position at second. There's very little power (six homers in 148 games), and he stole only seven bags. But he was in the batting title race for most of the year, hitting .303\. He was a first-round pick a long time ago, and now he's 27\. So the prospect shine has long since rubbed off. But a .280 xBA with some EV in the tank (110 max), plus a definite full-time role if Lowe doesn't return, and you have a guy who can pay off a cost in the 400s. No real upside, but he has one really solid tool, and that's often all you need for these near 30th-round players. He'll bolster your batting average and give you somthing to not hate in your 2B slot. I guess he shouldn't be in the "Upside" category, but I do think his overall roto value has upside relative to this price with the batting average + run scoring ability. And I don't think it's crazy that he could reach ten homers with 15 steals. --- ### Christian Moore | ADP 608 | 2B #52 Come on now! 600 ADP? This is a former first-round pick who got to the Majors too quickly. The Angels don't like to let their top picks play much in the minors. He played 25 games in the minors in 2024 after being drafted, and got to the Majors on June 13th of his first full season. He has sucked, there's no denying that. .193/.270/.328 in the Majors so far, but it's all of 91 games. There's nothing I can point to in the MLB profile to make a good case for him. It's firmly just a bet on a former first-round talent having something click after his first 100 games are finished. In the minors: **.297/.405/.491, .896 OPS, 34 PA/HR, 13% Attempt%** Solid slash lines, albeit powered some by the PCL environment. There's a lot of hard-hit ground balls and line drives, and a little bit of HR + SB. He's a very raw prospect. Certainly not a future MVP candidate, but in the 600s it's a solid bet in my eyes. --- ### Demetrio Crisantes | ADP 604 | 2B #51 Crisantes is a D'Backs prospect who reached AAA last year and played in the Arizona Fall League in 2026\. He could compete for a job out of camp, but most likely he'll go to AAA and arrive some time in May/June if things are going well. He doesn't profile as a huge HR + SB guy (89 fPower, 90 fSpeed). So he's not a guy you're going to get on your team and get a 20-20 pace. But he does have the tools that tend to make the MLB arrival more smooth. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-209.png) A 112 fDiscipline, we like that. And a 109 fHit. He doesn't strike out much, he takes walks, he's patient, and he hits a ton of line drives. He's just recently turned 22, so there's plenty of room for power growth. And hey, ten homers in 89 games is pretty solid. We just don't see many high EVs, so the HR upside in the Majors might be capped around 15-20. But he's a breakout candidate. 90% Zone-Contact%, and again, lots of good angles. I think he could break in and immediately hit for a nice batting average with a decent OBP. That's a better bet to make in the 600s to me compared to guys around him like Jose Tena, Alex Freeland, Kristian Campbell, etc. --- ### Roc Riggio | ADP 634 | 2B #55 Riggio is a Rockies prospect who reached AAA last year. The fScores are a fan: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-212.png) He went for 22 homers, 21 steals, and a .265 batting average last year. Some of that was helped by the PCL, but these Rockies hitters basically get to keep the PCL vibes going when coming to the Majors since they play in Coors Field. He does strike out a good bit (27%), but hits the ball decently hard and posted a 10% Brl% in the sample we had from AAA. The 106 fDiscipline shows that we shouldn't be as concerned about his higher K%. He had a zone contact around 81% in AAA, and he has a good eye at the plate with a high 14% BB%. He's patient with power and speed. I think it's sharp pairing him with **Connor Norby** if you make that pick, since Riggio could be one of the reasons Norby loses his job, if that happens. More on Riggio in our Rockies Prospect Preview pod: [2027 Prospect Preview Pod: Colorado RockiesView each team's top 30 prospect list as they come out here. Prospect preview season begins with the Colorado Rockies. During this series, we will go team-by-team and hand out Tim's top 20 prospects in each organization, with analysis and comments on each player. Here's![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/icon/mlbdw_logo_2026-d89de735-24df-4f49-9b25-385f3eb0a3c0.jpg)MLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-10-14-at-10.55.30---AM-1-cd7e8f2f-ecc7-4f46-8a20-26426a76b2d9.png)](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/2027-prospect-preview-pod-colorado-rockies/) --- ### Juan Brito | ADP 660 | 2B #59 The former Guardians' prospect was traded to the Reds for Nathaniel Lowe at the deadline. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-210.png) That's not a great sign, and Brito's numbers are well short of terrific in the minors: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/32/22/322212fc-720a-4899-891b-079f5343fd5b/content/images/2026/11/image-211.png) He was looking pretty nice in 2023-2024, but things didnt' go well in 2026 with a .719 OPS. 11 homers in 105 games, eight steals. The reason I'm recommending him is that I think he has a shot to play for the Reds. He plays second base primarily, but has experience at third as well. And right now, those are major holes for the Reds. Matt McLain, Ke'Bryan Hayes, and Edwin Arroyo are in the mix there. So not much to like. I think it'll be a wide-open competition, and maybe Brito can shake off some of the injuries from 2025 and get back to that 2024 form. He could be a double-digit-homer guy with a .260 batting average hitting in Great American Ballpark. There's a wider path to him doing absolutely nothing than being relevant, but there is a path. --- # Buys - Ketel Marte ADP 108 - Nico Hoerner ADP 152 - Sam Antonacci ADP 168 - Travis Bazzana ADP 169 - Brett Baty ADP 282 - Pedro Ramirez ADP 2889 - Cole Young ADP 310 - Angel Genao ADP 425 - Demetrio Crisantes ADP 604 - Christian Moore ADP 608 - Roc Riggio ADP ADP 634