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TNF Showdown Preview: CAR @ GB

TNF Showdown Preview: CAR @ GB

Not a bad TNF game on our hands on day one of the MLB offseason, which could be extra long and will for sure be extra painful.

So let's try to get it started off right with some Showdown money, or whatever else you might be doing. If nothing else, it's fun to have a feel for the games before you watch them, right?

Both teams have had decent starts to the season. The Panthers came out super flat and looked awful last week, but remain in first place at 3-3 in the NFC South.

The Packers have a better record than that, at 4-3, but find themselves trying to win their way out of the basement tonight. The Vikings are 6-0, the Bears are at 5-2, and the Lions sit at 4-2 after their bye week.

Pretty important game for both squads.

Panthers Side

Everything was looking pretty good for Bryce Young until last week.

He went 14/27 for 163 yards and two interceptions last week against the Bucs. He looked like the old Bryce Young. So who do we actually have here? We'll get some more information tonight, but that's a big part of how this game will go.

Young doesn't run with the ball, his max on the season is ten rushing yards. So he's pretty dependent on making the big plays with the arms and getting the ball to his very strong young wide receivers. Green Bay's been better against the run (3.9 yards per carry) than against the pass (6.4 yards per attempt), but both numbers are better than the league average.

On Lambeau in a short week, I think it's kinda tough to trust in Bryce Young. I wouldn't really want to be starting him in fantasy leagues, but maybe that's too biased by what we saw in one game last week.

Running Backs

It's the Chuba Hubbard show. 81% of snaps, 55 carries while giving up no more than seven to anybody else the last four weeks.

5.0 yards per carry, too. He's been very good. They didn't have the play count to get him going last week, and the blowout had some starters on the bench in the fourth quarter.

But Hubbard is a workhorse, and he's been good this year. He's a confident play in a game that projects to be pretty close.

Pass Catchers

It's basically half of the targets going to Tet McMillan and Jalen Coker when they're both healthy, as they are tonight. Their numbers are almost identical.

So in DFS situations, you probably just prefer the cheaper guy. I think they're both strong plays tonight, but we saw what the floor is if Bryce Young suddenly sucks again.

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Projections

It's pretty concentrated on the Panthers side. Lots of Chuba out of the backfield and the targets are going to McMillan and Coker. That's nice for the Showdown. If you think the offense will have a nice night, you can lock in most of the points.

Packers

Both of these defenses are good against the pass but have given up some points to the RB position. The purple here means the defenses are good against that position.

Quarterback

The spot to target on the Packers side is pretty clear, it's the rushing attack. Jordan Love isn't the most consistent or safe fantasy QB, and the Panthers have been around league average against QBs.

Love looks around league average by the numbers.

But the good news is that his targets are also quite concentrated, so we know who to stack him with.

Running Backs

The spot that everybody seems to be betting on is Josh Jacobs rushing overs. The Panthers have surrendered 5.2 yards per carry - the worst in the league.

Jacobs came back last week and played 54% of the snaps, taking 11 of the 19 RB carries, running 20 routes, and seeing seven targets. So he was very involved even as the snap count builds up.

You can't deny it's a juicy matchup for Jacobs in game two (with fresh legs, you'd think) at home as a favorite.

Pass Catchers

As we said, it's very concentrated here.

Golden has been the most targeted due, but Watson continues to be a bit more efficient on the targets. And they both have similar ADoTs now (Golden 14, Watson 13.4).

So it's a back-and-forth. They can go off together, but usually it's one of the two. Watson has six of the 13 touchdowns, so he's the guy closer to the goal line it seems.

Projections


Showdown Thoughts

It's all pretty tight on both offenses. We know where the ball's going to go. That means you can get a pretty tight player pool and just iterate a bunch and hope for the right combinations. It also mean ownership will be more concentrated.

The core guys:

Those are the top guys where the ball mainly goes. To mix it up:

Exposures from the Optimizer

The most commonly played guys from the optimizer:

  1. Chuba Hubbard
  2. Joran Love
  3. Jalen Coker
  4. Josh Jacobs
  5. Bryce Young
  6. Mark Redman
  7. Tet McMillan
  8. Tommy Tremble

So the projections really aren't liking Golden/Watson. That's interesting. The matchup does play to the run game for the Packers, and Love isn't the most reliable. So maybe that's a good angle to take. Go pretty low on the Packers passing attack.

Lock Candidates

Just an idea... lock Jacobs + Young. That assumes the Packers get a lead with big success in the running game, and Young has air it out in the second half. Pair him with Coker + McMillan a bunch, and have at least one of them every time with Young.

Should be a fun game, hope this helps in some way. Projections are out there for you paid subs on the app. Enjoy it!

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