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A Note On Preseason Projections

You'll see some 2027 projections for each player now. I've completed the initial run of the projections, but there's a lot of work left to be done there. We need more playing time clarity, we need to see some of the other models out there to refine things. Early in the offseason, playing time projections are low, especially on teams with roster crunches.

I would not draft off these projections right now, but I don't think anybody out there is. By the time we get into early March, we'll have much better projections and good tools for you to use in your draft.

General rule I use: I use hitter projections significantly in drafting. For pitchers, not so much. My ranks before Feb/March aren't based on the projections that you'll find. How I think each player will project is obviously in my head when ranking, but we're not really using projections for much of anything until we get into spring training.

On to the San Francisco Giants for our 2027 team preview series! San Francisco went 67-95 in 2026 and never had much of a chance. They didn't make any big waves in free agency, their offense couldn't overcome the big home park, and the pitching underperformed.

They have a decent farm system, but it's a pretty youthful one. There's not a lot of game-breaking talent in the upper levels. But things are looking good long-term. I'm guessing they'll take it mostly easy this offseason, as the roster just doesn't have the core to make a go at it quite yet.

The offense looks better than the pitching staff, which I don't think is where the Giants really want to be. Decent bats and a handful of established MLB ballplayers in the lineup, but really only one starting pitcher to feel good about with Logan Webb returning for another year, although his 2026 season went poorly as well.

Hitters

The lineup is in flux. It could look a lot different by March than it does right now, and there will be plenty of competition leading up to the season.

They really broke down late in the year. Devers, Schmitt, Eldridge, Adames, and Jung Hoo Lee all ended the year on the IL. So their lineup was disgusting-looking late in the year. But all of the core guys should be healthy for the beginning of the season.

Rafael Devers

Age: 30
Position: 1B

Devers did something that is very hard to do. He hit 30 homers as a Giant. And more, he hit 37 homers. That's by far the highest since the Barry Bonds days. He drove in 98 runs and posted an .869 OPS.

It was a terrific season for Devers, and even more impressive because he hit .207/.248/.289 in March and April. He started slow in 2025 as well, but that ended after a couple of weeks rather than a full month.

Power

12.5% Brl%
.342 xwOBA
107.3 EV90 (106.3 on fly balls)
14% Air Pull%

To me, that doesn't quite look like a guy who hit 37 bombs. Repeating that will be quite tough, but we know that Devers is an extremely good hitter and it was extra convincing to see him do so well in his first full year in this brutal ballpark.

Last three years: .260/.356/.507, .863 OPS, 19.3 PA/HR

He's a power hitter; he's extremely good with the bat. The question is, how much can he be worth in fantasy leagues if he comes down to 25-30 homers?

Speed
It's not there. Zero steals, zero attempts this year. Just one steal last year, and three the year before that. You're not getting steals from many first basemen, but it's a point against Devers once again.

Discipline
It's good. He did strike out 25.5% of the time this year, and he's been around that 25% mark the last three years, so he's swinging for more power, maybe. But an 11% BB% and good swing decisions keep him chugging right along.

He hits a ton of fly balls (35% FB%), which worked out in 2026, but it does make you wonder a bit about the batting average. His .296 BABIP was around league average; he hit .258 with a .237 xBA. He's very slow, so I could see a .240 batting average next year. He hit .272 in 2025, but did have a 90-game .236 batting average in 2024.

When he was younger, he was a high batting average guy, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore.

Final Thoughts
What are we left with? A pretty high-floor option because he's been really good with the bat for a long time now, and he's still not that old (30). But what's the upside?

Did we see the best-case scenario in 2026? I think we kinda did. I really don't see another 35+ homer season for Devers, and he will hit .260 at best with a few steals at most.

Projection
558 AB, 85 R, 27 HR, 80 RBI, 2 SB, .241/.340/.450

Rank
I'm keeping him behind Neto, who steals bases and has similar power abilities. They're pretty close, though. Neto's batting average is potentially worse than Devers, and he'll probably project for fewer homers as well. But I like the steals.

My strategy with Devers is to let someone else take him, hope for another slow start, and try to buy him at a discount. That's worked the last two years, so it might be a trend.

Willy Adames

Age: 31
Position: SS

Willy was a bust pick in 2026, and boy did that work out for us. He hit .230/.289/.424 with 21 homers in 121 games. He got hurt and ended the year on the IL.

It looked like he was catching fire in the middle of the season, but then he was pretty poor for the last part of his season.

The K% came up to 27.5%, the walk rate fell way down to 7.3%. We just saw the worst of everything for 30-year-old Adames.

He's hit below .230 with the Giants, his OBPs have never been good. The saving grace in 2025 were the 30 bombs, 94 runs, and 84 RBI. But he wasn't coming close to those totals in 2026 even if he had stayed healthy.

Power
You need a lot of EV to get the ball out of AT&T Park. And he didn't do that. 103.2 EV90, 104.1 on fly balls. A weak 8.6% Brl% for his standards. He did pull the ball in the air a good bit (21%), so that's good.

The EVs need to come up though. His bat speed was around league average, so yeah, that 30-homer stuff doesn't look like it'll happen again.

Speed
He stole 21 bags in 2024, but has 17 since. Just a 7% attempt rate in 2026 and bad success rates the last two years (73%), so I think that part of his game has dried up.

Discipline
Not a super aggressive swing rate at 48%, that's just one point above the league average. He chased 32% of the time, which isn't great, but not awful. His launch angles were pretty good with a 33% FB% and 38% Sweet Spot%.

The quality of contact was near his career lows. A .221 xBA, .294 xwOBA.

Final Thoughts
If this was a brand new player and this is what he gave us, we wouldn't have any interest at all. However, we think Adames should be better next year. He's still just 31, so the age isn't a huge concern, and maybe with a fresh bill of health he can get back to 25 homers and a good supply of RBI.

But that's about the best case I can make. Maybe a .240 batting average, 25 homers, 80 RBI, 75 R, and five steals? There are many, many shortstops better than that.

I didn't like Adames last year, but I'll like him more for drafts this year because he's going to be very cheap.

Projection
484 AB, 67 R, 19 HR, 60 RBI, 8 SB, .238/.309/.412

Rank
He's close with Mike Trout. I gave the nod to Trout, but he's right in that discussion. Very similar players at this point.

Casey Schmitt

Age: 28
Position: 3B/OF

Casey Schmitt was awesome for fantasy leagues in 2026 after being undrafted in most situations. He played 95 games in 2025 with a .706 OPS, and ramped it up to a .271/.301/.483 slash line for a .784 OPS, but his season was cut short by injury (a torn meniscus, which isn't a threat to his status for the beginning of 2027). He played his last game on July 27th. That seemed to spread the injury bug. I really didn't realize just how many key players the Giants were missing late.

Schmitt would have likely cleared 25 bombs, a dozen steals, and hit above .260. That's really impressive stuff after it looked like he was a role player at best prior.

But was it for real? Some 2025-2026 comparison shown here:

It was a pretty strange combination of stats. The K% came down four points, the batting average went up 32 points, the xBA went up 26 points, the xwOBA up 20 points, the barrel rate up 3.4 points! Incredible improvements.

But his OBP came down because he walked 11 times in 413 plate appearances. With any walk rate under 5%, you expect to find a high swing rate. And we do find that with Schmit at a 54% Swing%. But it was one of the lower swing rates you'll find for a walk rate this low. He had the lowest BB% in the league over 400 PAs, and not close to the highest swing rate.

So it's strange. His chase rate wasn't great. It's not like he just knew exactly what pitches to swing at. Pitchers just threw him strikes, and he wasn't up there to do any slow trots to first.

Power
Not bad, but not fantastic. 104.75 EV90, 105.3 on fly balls, 12.4% Brl%, 29% GB%. So that's more power from launch angles than from huge EVs. His max EV was 112.3, and that is pretty good. But he wasn't consistently getting past 105 like a lot of other dudes who are hitting this many homers do.

10 of his 21 homers were at home, which is a good sign too, I suppose. He was able to find the fences in AT&T Park.

San Francisco is worse for lefty power than it is for righty power. If we look at home run per barrel rates from each side of the plate:

RHB: 45%
LHB: 38%

It's the second-toughest park for lefties by this number (STL), but more toward the middle of the pack for righties. So that works in Schmitt's favor as a right handed hitter.

For his career, he has a homer every 26 PAs, which is still above-average, but it's six points behind the 19 he went for in 2026. So I think we're sliding back down in the home run rate for next year. But he should still project as a 20-22 homer guy, I think.

Speed
He stole two bags in 90 games in 2023, and then zero from 2024-2025 in 135 games. He didn't even attempt a steal in those seasons, but he got it going last year with ten steals on a 13% attempt rate. That would have turned into mid-teens steals in addition to the mid-20s home run total.

He's decent quick with a 65th percentile sprint speed. But this "zero steals from two years" thing makes me wonder if 2026 wasn't the mirage on the paths. We'll see different steals projections for Schmitt in different systems, but he'll probably end up between 12 and 15 in my mind.

Discipline / Hit Tool
He's not very disciplined with the 2.5% BB%, but he makes a ton of contact (89% Zone-Contact%) and has always been an elite line drive hitter. His 41% Sweet Spot% last year was right in line with 2025. So he's one of the best at getting the ball to the proper angles for extra-base hits.

He's a unique hitter for sure. But it all looks pretty solid to me. And he would have ended up a lot more expensive had his season continued into August and September, provided he kept the pace mostly going.

It's never comfortable to take a Giants hitter who doesn't steal a ton of bases. Just because homers are so tough to come by. But Schmitt has a lot of things going for him. It's easier to hit homers from the right side, he showed the ability to steal some bags, and he's a solid batting average target.

Final Thoughts
I guess I like me some Casey Schmitt this year.

Projection
62 R, 21 HR, 66 RBI, 7 SB, .254/.299/.449

Rank
Right between Carrigg and Trout.

Matt Chapman

Age: 33
Position: 3B

Chapman's season ended before July even began. He ended up having surgery in August for a "torn core muscle" and a hernia. But the recovery period from that is not close to being a concern for 2027.

What is a concern for 2027 is that he SUCKED.

He's had two nice fantasy seasons in the last six years, and four seasons that weren't so good.

The 27 bombs and .247 average with a .790 OPS in 2024 was solid, and he added 15 steals that year. But since then, it's been mediocre power with very low batting averages and brutal cold streaks.

He's a good ballplayer; nobody would argue that. He swings the bat hard, plays great defense, and has had a nice career. But it hasn't worked very well as a Giant, and now he's 33 coming off a missed half-season with a core muscle injury.

.209 xBA, .285 xwOBA last year. He hit a lot of ground balls and posted a 6.7% Brl%.

I think he can do better than that. I'm thinking that 2025 is about who Chapman is. A .235ish batting average with around 20 homers and 5-10 steals. That's not worth a ton in fantasy leagues, and there's considerable downside with the age and what we saw in 2026.

He was probably playing hurt for a good bit of that time, so we should forgive him for some of that. But I don't think there's a world where Chapman goes out there and punishes you for now drafting him. I'd consider him a good super deep league buy low, because I'm sure he can do better in 2027 than what we saw in 2026, but he's not going to be near the top 350, I don't think.

Projection
406 AB, 53 R, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 5 SB, .235/.329/.386

Ranking
Pretty low, behind Christian Moore currently.

Jung Hoo Lee

Age: 28
Position: OF

He stayed mostly healthy and played 143 games. But he finished the year injured with a groin contusion. Not a big deal there.

But a .276/.320/.404 slash line with 10 bombs and 12 steals. It was his best work in all categories.

Maybe he's becoming more AMERICANIZED. Finally using his decent EV ability to hit some tanks! Or maybe not, because his Brl% actually came down to 2.1%. And his bat speed is very weak.

So it wasn't sustainable power growth. 100.6 EV90, lower 22% FB%, very few air pulls at 14%.

His stolen base attempt rates in his career: 12%, 9%, 9%. He has 22 steals in a little less than two years' worth of games in 2025 and 2026.

The best tool is the batting average. .287 xBA powered by a 9.9% K%, a 29% LD%, and quickness to first base. But his career batting average is still below .270, so this isn't an Arraez-type dude who can carry your team in batting average.

I'm left wondering why we'd draft Jung Hoo Lee in a 12-team league? You're hoping to get two homers and 2-3 steals a month. He needs to hit like .290 while leading off and scoring a bunch of runs to make that work. I'd rather opt for more upside where he's going to go in drafts.

But he's a solid player and definitely a regular for the Giants. So he'll play.

Projection
478 AB, 62 R, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, .271/.322/.389

Rank
Behind Chapman.

Bryce Eldridge

Age: 22
Position: DH/1B

Finally, some excitement! We're learning that there's not a ton of young, exciting talent on this Giants roster (yet, the prospects are coming). But we have that with Eldridge.

It as a mixed bag of results in his first full year. 107 games, .272/.366/.462, 17 homers, 26% K%, 13% BB%, .828 OPS.

That's mostly good. He started very well, then got cold, but was steadily improving as the year closed out.

His best month was September (.309 batting average, .948 OPS, but just two homers).

Power
Max EV of 113.4, which is great. But it wasn't consistent loud cracks of the bat.

Higher EVs on his line drives than his fly balls. But that could mean he's one small tweak and a few more reps away from blowing up in the power department.

His career could be held back by this park. It's probably the worst park in the league for left-handed power, and that's how this guy is built to make his money. But at 6'7'' and 22 years old, we're betting on the power developing big-time in the bigs. If you hit a ball 425 feet it doesn't matter what park you're in. But there will be fewer cheap homers for him than most other guys.

He still needs some work in the power department. Just a 13.5% Air Pull% and 11.7% Brl%. We need a little more on that for a left-handed power hitter standing at 6'7''. It seems to take the super tall guys longer to figure it out in the bigs, but I want to be on the buy side of Eldridge overall. For dynasty leagues, you're hoping he somehow finds his way onto another team.

Speed
Just one steal and a 2% attempt rate. That's not part of his game.

Discipline/Hit Tool
Nice improvement in K% this year. 35% in a short time in 2025, but then a 26% mark in 2026. That's perfectly fine for a power hitter. That was probably the most encouraging thing about his 2026 season.

Solid 82% zone-contact for a power guy, and a patient approach at the plate (43%) that you don't mind seeing from big men hunting pitches they can hit a long way.

He had a .340 BABIP, which will likely come down. His .260 xBA was good news. It doesn't seem like he'll be a .220 batting average guy, but you never know.

Final Thoughts
He should hit the cage with Devers and try to learn some lessons. Because the physicality is there for him to join the Giants 30-homer club. He just needs some refinement. The best position for him seems to be first base, but that's where Devers goes, so he's going to be stuck as a DH. I don't think any team loves the idea of a 23-year-old top prospect being restricted to DH.

It's a little added risk on that front. If he's not hitting for a while, there's no defense to keep him in the lineup. I think they owe him a long leash with their roster and how much upside he has. Luckily, he played enough at 1B to have his eligibility set there for 2027, but we might end up with him as a DH-only in the future.

I guess I'm just not all that interested. There's a lot of upside, but a lot of downside if he can't figure out how to be a 25+ homer guy in San Francisco. If he's a 23-homer guy or so, you have that with a .250 average and no steals. Not great.

Projection
495 AB, 67 R, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 2 SB, .237/.399/.433

Rank
Honestly a tough rank. He's sort of a one-tool guy. And if that tool doesn't come through, you're going to want to drop him in your 12-teamers. But there's 35-homer upside if he can develop.

I'll put him in ahead of Moniak and Karros, but I'm leaving Charlie Condon ahead of him for now, just in case Condon makes the team out of camp.

Marcelo Mayer

Age: 24
Position: 2B/SS

And now we're into the questionable guys. Mayer was traded to the Giants at the deadline and didn't get a lot of time with the big league club, just six games in the bigs.

His career so far:

The Red Sox had this big three of Roman Anthony + Kristian Campbell + Marcelo Mayer, and none of them have been able to do much so far. Campbell can't even hit in AAA, Mayer has failed his chances so far, and Roman Anthony can't stay healthy.

His big league stats 2025-2026 shown this way:

He stopped striking out a ton in 2026, but hit .209/.273/.295 with very little power.

Weak quality of contact, low barrel rate, very low contact rate. Low EVs, but decent bat speed.

And he's not super young anymore at 24 years old!

I don't know how to evaluate these types. He hasn't had an extended period of time in the lineup to develop, but he's not given a team any reason to give him that!

The bat speed is worth holding onto. He does swing the bat pretty hard, but it doesn't help if you don't do anything else well.

I think he'll have to win the job, and even then, it'll be a weak grasp on it since he's not a special defender.

Projection
322 AB, 36 R, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 3 SB, .213/.268/.352

Rank
Near the bottom of the list

Drew Gilbert

Age: 26
Position: OF

Gilbert was somewhat forced into the lineup, but he did give them a reason to make him a favorite for an outfield job next year. He finished the year really well.

OPS well above .800 in the last two months plus seven bombs and three steals.

He was a former first-round pick, so that's a plus, I guess.

Power
It's not non-existent, but it's mediocre at best. 103 EV90, 5.9% Brl%, 15% Air Pull%. Low bat speed too, so I don't think much of him as a home run hitter in SF.

Speed
Four steals in 174 big league games. About average speed. Not seeing many steals.

Discipline/Hit Tool
Strong contact hitter, so at least he has that. 89% Zone Contact%, 18% K%, and a 9.3% BB%. Patient at a 42% Swing%. He seems like one of those guys who has a professional approach but lacks the physical tools to really make it work.

Final Thoughts
I doubt he holds a big league job for long. So he's not really a guy you need to worry about drafting in your normal leagues. But he did enough to be in the conversation for next year.

Projection
359 AB, 42 R, 9 HR, 42 RBI, 4 SB, .226/.293/.353

Rank
Above Mayer, but pretty far down on the list.

Pitchers

Logan Webb

Age: 30

The guy can just never do the same thing two years in a row!

He was the 200-innings machine prior to 2026, but he started just 27 games for 160.2 innings. His ERA was the worst of his career, excluding small samples in 2019 and 2020. But his WHIP was better than in 2024 and 2025!

2025 was his best work with a near 21% K-BB% in 207 innings with a 3.22 ERA. He did that even while allowing a .346 BABIP. Then his K-BB% comes down to 14% in 2026, but his BABIP corrects to .286. But the ERA climbed more than a full run!

It's just a weird situation with Webb. This is what these pitch-to-contact guys do to us, I guess. Losing six points on the K% is huge, but the silver lining is that a 20% K% and 6% BB% was right where he was in the year prior.

The pitch mix from 2026:

He's never been a huge whiffs guy. Webb gets ground balls, he limits homers, he doesn't allow much hard contact, but he's never a 13% SwStr% guy.

10.2% is poor. And his command may have taken a step backward as well with the 35% Ball%.

If it wasn't Logan Webb we were talking about, it would be easy to be very far down the list on him. But we have seen him provide plenty of fantasy value even with a sub-15% K-BB%. He's with the Giants at least two more years, and that park isn't changing.

I'd still like to see more four-seamers or cutters or something to get more consistent strikeouts. His changeup was very good, and he has a deep pitch mix.

So I don't think things can get too bad for Webb. He's a reasonable buy-low target for 2027.

League settings do matter. His type is a boost in leagues with strikeout totals rather than rates, and he's one of the better quality start league assets in the league as well.

Projection
32 GS, 3.70 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 24% K%, 6% BB%, 0.8 HR/9

Rank
#2 behind Detmers

Landen Roupp

Age: 28

He started the year very well. He was over-performing in the K%, as we spotted during the daily notes, and by the end of the year, the ratios were pretty poor. 4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 10.4% K-BB%.

Roupp is Webb-like. His stuff doesn't turn in many strikeouts, but he gets a bunch of ground balls and is very hard to hit out of the ballpark. Look at the 5.1% Brl% here:

Home park has nothing to say about Brl% allowed, so this kind of low Brl% in San Francisco will turn into very low home run rates. And we saw that in 2026, as he gave up just 11 in his 155 innings (0.64 HR/9).

Walbert Urena is a good comp for him. Expect a lower K%, expect a higher BB%, but the ERA can't get too high because he gives up so few homers.

That said, his sinker comes in at 93, so it's not close to Urena in that regard. That turned into a 2.9% SwStr% on the sinker and a .368 xwOBA. It wasn't hit very far very often, but it was hit pretty hard, and hit extremely frequently.

The curveball is bordering on elite. A .256 xwOBA, 126 MLB DW grade, and 49% Strike%. That's a very good curveball, but he has trouble getting to two-strike counts with the sinker to put guys away with it.

The changeup is fine, and he has a cutter and four-seamer to tinker with as well.

So there are some paths for Roupp. And I don't think he'll ever go much above a 4.00 ERA. He's a fine dude for deeper leagues. He racked up 155 innings, and the Giants don't have many good options behind him, so I think he could make 30+ starts and log 160+ innings next year with a 3.85 ERA and 1.30 WHIP or so.

That's not worthwhile in a 12-team league where you want upside and strong ratios, but there are many pitchers worse than Landen Roupp.

Projection
29 GS, 4.28 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 22% K%, 10% BB%, 0.9 HR/9

Rank
#4 behind Detmers, Webb, and Urena.

After that... I don't know what they're going to do. Matt Wilkinson, Adrian Houser, Anthony Molina... It's super ugly. Maybe they'll add somebody in free agency or a trade just to get them through 2027, because right now it looks like one of the worst rotations in the league, and I don't feel it necessary to write up any more of these guys. But I'll come back if things change.

Prospects to Know

Full top 20 breakdown here:

All of the guys we think are potential studs (or at least very strong MLB players) are in the lower levels. It doesn't look to me like they're going to get a ton of help from the farm in 2027. So they'd be wise to be in long-term rebuilding mode rather than spending resources ahead of 2027.

The pitchers to know for the future:

Jackson Flora (ETA 2029)
Ramon Marquez (ETA 2028)

Flora could be a stud; we think Marquez could make for a solid SP3-SP4 option.

The hitters to know:

Josuar Gonzalez (ETA 2029)
Jhonny Level (ETA 2028)
Luis Hernandez (ETA 2030)

See what I'm saying? None of the top five prospects are expected to make it in 2027, and some are a few years away.

Bo Davidson is an outfielder for the Giants who has already debuted and is in our top 150 at MLB DW. Some speed there, but a lot of holes and not necessarily a guy we expect to ever be a full-time guy.

That does it. As always, we'll update these with changes that happen this offseason. But there won't be much news until the lockout ends.