Bucs & Falcons

This probably isn't fantasy-relevant for the future, since the weather and score were what they were. But what a crazy game. The Bucs didn't complete a pass and won the game 16-0. They ran it 92% of the time. Bucky Irving went 27-170-1, Kenny Gainwell went 24-140-0. It was the type of game you see once in a lifetime. In fact, it was 1974 that the last time a team won a game without completing a pass. Just wild, wild stuff. The Falcons' run defense wasn't up to the task; the Bucs' defense sure was.

Michael Penix went 8/24 for 125 yards. Nobody could throw the ball with success in this one, and that was advantage BUCS, who didn't even have to try.

Maybe the storyline to take from the last couple of weeks is that the Bucs' defense is really good. Again, it helps when you're playing in a mud pit. But the Bucs defense is down to allowing just 4.8 yards per play, and only 3.6 yards per rush. That's a tough unit to make plays against.

Two straight games now like this for the Bucs. Last week, the Panthers just handed them the ball a couple of times and couldn't do anything to stop the run game. So the Bucs could have thrown the ball last week, but didn't have to. This week, they really couldn't have, but still didn't have to.

Another takeaway is that the Bucs pass game becomes a buy-low. They've completed seven passes for 64 yards in the last two games. That's a normal quarter for the better QBs in the league. Things will normalize and they'll be throwing the ball 20+ times a game again starting immediately. Emeka Egbuka has been hurt, and it turns out that happened at the perfect time. I'd be floating some offers out for him, and even Cade Otton in your super deep two-tight-end leagues or whatever.

And maybe it's a good time to sell on Bucky Irving. These last two games won't be repeated again, it's been one of the wildest things I've seen with two game scripts in a row like this.

So avoid the Bucs defense where possible, and try to buy the Bucs pass game side.

Ravens

Lamar Jackson lasted one play before a finger injury that will hold him out for another month. And then they lost Tyler Huntley for significant time as well, so they're in the QB market now.

It's horrible news for all Ravens pieces. Zay Flowers mostly. Really poor luck for the Ravens. I doubt you can sell Flowers right now, and you wouldn't really want to acquire him, either. I guess if I were sitting at 6-2, I'd be seeing if I could get Flowers. Maybe they'll get a QB that can run the offense, and Lamar should be back in time for the fantasy playoffs, you'd think. So play the long game on Flowers if you're in position to do that.

Derrick Henry's value is dinged by the QB situation, but he can survive as a decent RB2 for fantasy leagues. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry last week, and they'll be forced to lean heavily on him. With stacked boxes and Henry being well past the prime, it's not going to be great, but I don't think you have to abandon ship on Henry.

But yeah, if I were 3-5 or something like that and needing to win now, I'd be shipping off Ravens pieces for short-term help. Deal with the other problems later if you can at least get to a place to be in contention in a month.

Bengals Smash

Joe Burrow put five touchdowns on the board (one with his legs). That game was insane. The Titans played them well and almost won the game. Tennessee ran 75 plays, the Bengals ran 73 (both in the top five of the week).

Burrow piled up 462 yards.

• Chase: 11-141-1 (16 targets)
• Higgins: 10-155-2 (12 targets)
• Brown: 8-46-0 (9 targets)
• Gesicki: 4-76-1 (6 targets)

We did not expect that kind of game environment. The Bengals doubles (Burrow, Chase, and Higgins) are always potential tourney-winners, and that came through yesterday.

Good news shown by Cam Ward, who went 26/41 for 304 yards and two touchdown without turning it over. The Bengals are beatable through the air and tougher on the ground, so it was a good spot to bet on Ward.

With Carnell Tate out, it went a lot through Gunnar Helm (5-76-0), Chimere Dike (5-71-1), and Wan'Dale Robinson (6-57-1). Good to see Ward maybe improving and putting up some numbers.

Tony Pollard was not slowed down, either. 21 carries for 117 yards and two more scores.

I still have to call Pollard a sell high, right? The Titans are moving the ball now, and maybe this is a young offense breaking out that can push their solid veteran RB into fantasy production. But Pollard is a top-three back of the last three weeks; I'm still selling high on that.

Cowboys / Cardinals

A wild game that I did not pay attention to. It looked like it was in the bag to the Cowboys, but the Cardinals brought in Gardner Minshew, who led a late-game comeback and they finished the job in overtime. Minshew magic, they call it. He went 17/20 for 188 yards and three touchdowns in the second half.

Michael Wilson was the biggest hit of the game. 15 targets, 8-111-1. That's a welcome sign after he had struggled a bit since the Harrison trade. The Cowboys did a decent job on McBride, I guess. At least enough to push the targets to Wilson. McBride went 7-72-1, so still a pretty great game.

But it certainly opens the door for Minshew to start next week, we'd think. The Cowboys defense is the main story, it's a garbage unit, and really embarassing that they let that game get lost.

They gave up a long, impressive touchdown to Tyler Allgeier, who went 11-147-1. Jeremiyah Love averaged 2.6 yards per carry as his challenging rookie year campaign continues. Allgeier added 5-44-1, so he was a smash play. You'd still think it's a split, but Allgeier has outplayed Love this year and especially lately, so you might feel okay about starting him in the future.

But they won't get a matchup like this one again. It's such a smash going into Dallas against this version of the Cowboys defense.

xFP Standouts

Michael Wilson led the week with his 15 targets.

1. Michael Wilson 34
2. Ja'Marr Chase 28
3. Garrett Wilson 26
4. Chuba Hubbard 26
5. Matthew Golden 23
6. Denzel Boston 22
7. Mike Washington Jr. 22
8. Tony Pollard 22
9. Javonte Williams 21
10. Harold Fannin 21
11. Tee Higgins 19
12. James Cook 19
13. Jahmyr Gibbs 18
14. Chase Brown 18
15. Tet McMillan 28
16. Puka Nacua 18
17. Adonai Mitchell 17
18. Justin Jefferson 17
19. Bucky Irving 17
20. Tyler Allgeier 17

The names in bold need some discussion.

The Browns got down early and had to throw it a bit more. 39 attempts from Watson and a couple from Sanders who had to come in briefly on the first drive after a concussion check on Watson.

Boston did not capitalize on the opportunity. 11 targets, 100+ air yards, but no big conversion and just a 6-37-0 line. Harold Fannin was the guy they had success with. Big 10-154-0 for him.

It's a three-man attack for the Browns with those two plus KC Concepcion. It wasn't a horrid game from Watson, and when they get down, they can put up some fantasy points with these nice young pass catchers they have.

The Raiders finally made a shift in the running game. Mike Washington played 63% of the snaps and took 25 carries to Jeanty's two.

That's a pretty big development, although it was a long time coming. Jeanty was a 2nd round pick in fantasy leagues this year, but he's run his way right out of the early down carries. But he still was active in the pass game with 3-64-0 on four targets. When he's on the field, he's getting a bunch of targets.

And Washington didn't keep up his efficiency. 3.3 yards per carry and stuffed several times close to the goal.

Maybe things even out a bit next week. Washington had the chance to take the job at the main rusher of the ball, but he didn't capitalize on it - although they did win the game.

Washington's probably just a flex play for now, hopefully we get some news from the coaching staff on how they'll do things next week.

Adonai Mitchell went 7-142-1 on nine targets. And we saw Garrett Mitchell on the list as well with 12 targets of his own (8-83-0). That was an exciting Jets/Raiders game with the Raiders winning 38-33.

Geno threw it 32 times for 290 yards. Braelon Allen continued to dominate. It looks bad for Breece Hall when he does get back. Allen ran 21-147-1. He's been awesome since taking over; he might just be the starter when Hall is back, but it's definitely heading toward being a split.

Mitchell is very talented, it's just been the consistency and some injuries that have kept him out of the fantasy game. But he showed his ceiling in this one. I wouldn't expect a ton weekly from here on out, but in deeper league he should be owned. The big-play upside is there and he was getting open a ton in this game.

Monday Night Football

This is a good football game. Two teams that could compete deep into the playoffs. The Bears are bulking up through trades, and their offense has been incredible with Caleb Williams in there.

But can they score points in Seattle? Very few other teams have done it. The Hawks suffocated the Chiefs last week. Their defense grade is 134. They're the best defense in the league, and the crowd is a big boost at home.

I haven't been too into the Showdowns and stuff, my interest in that usually dries up as we get into the middle of the season. So I'm not able to really help you there, but if you're serious about playing Showdown - you haven't been using me for your main advice anyways.

Kyle Monangai is out, pushing D'Andre Swift to a 17-point projection. It's going to be a ton of Swift. They don't like to use Roschon Johnson in close games. So I think Swift is the best play on the Bears side. The high value touches will be there, provided the team moves the ball. But I think they will. It's a 46.5-point total with the Seahawks only a three-point favorite. So we project points for both teams.

Rashid Shaheed is also out. He hasn't done much on the field, but he's out there a bunch, so his absence opens up some routes for Tory Horton and other guys.

It's a great spot for the Seahawks to score some points and push the Bears into a fast-paced approach. The Bears defense has an 87 grade; they're pretty beatable, although they have improved the defense by acquiring Jeffery Simmons, who is expected to debut for them tonight.

The Seahawks run game will look different tonight. Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price will be active tonight. This is the first time they'll play together, and we really can't know what kind of restriction they'll be on, both coming off extended injuries.

Charbonnet hasn't played since late last season. Emanuel Wilson will probably get some work as well to keep the pressure off both guys in their return. I think it's too ugly to go that backfield with any confidence.

Leans

I'd go heavy JSN (obviously), and then a lot of Swift as a bellcow RB, and I'm not at all afraid to play Caleb Williams. I'm guessing he won't be very efficient, but they might have to do a lot of throwing, and he can run with the ball as well.

Check out the projections on the app. They're up to date.

The projections are sending us to these names to build Showdown lineups with:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (lock)
• Sam Darnold
• Tory Horton
• Caleb Williams
• D'Andre Swift
• AJ Barner

This will probably be duped a bunch, but it's a pretty "cash" lineup to make:

CPT JSN
FLEX DARNOLD
FLEX SWIFT
FLEX HORTON
FLEX BARNER
FLEX MYERS

I just did that with the eye-test, and indeed, that's the optimal lineup in the projections. So no doubt it will be hella-duped, but if you have some proven way of playing "cash" in a showdown, that's where you go.

It'll be a fun game to watch as a football fan. I'm excited for it.