My survivor pool season has come to an end. The Houston Texans derailed a good run. It's really a shame; I thought I had a perfect plan for the rest of the season. It just goes to show nobody really knows what will happen each week. We dodged a lot of chalk-disaster losses, but this one caught up with us. This will be the last week of this series, since most everyone is out by now.
Quick Thoughts
Biggest Spread: Cincinnati Bengals (-12.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
Largest number on the board. Moneyline roughly -600 to -675 (~80–85% implied). Titans are 1-6 with a broken offense. Bengals are at home, healthier, and this is their best remaining spot. Pure survival play.
Strong Plays: Dallas Cowboys (vs. Arizona Cardinals) or New England Patriots (at Miami)
With Jacksonville already used, these are the cleanest high-probability burns that still leave you solid options later.
- Cowboys are a solid home favorite against a struggling Cardinals team. A lot of people are saving Dallas for Thanksgiving, so using them now is a reasonable burn if you don’t need that holiday spot.
- Patriots are ~6.5- to 7-point road favorites against a 1-5 Dolphins team. Slightly lower win probability than the Bengals but still attractive, and availability is usually good.
Do Not Use
- Minnesota Vikings (at Detroit) — Undefeated but only a modest underdog in a divisional road game.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Atlanta) — Close divisional game.
- Kansas City Chiefs (at Denver) — Tight spread in a tough road spot. Save them.
- Any team you’re specifically preserving for a much clearer future matchup.
Public Consensus Ownership Estimates
- Cincinnati ~37–41%
- Jacksonville ~17–18%
- New England ~15–16%
- Then Rams, Cowboys, etc. in single digits
Week 8 Thoughts
- Cincinnati Bengals (-12.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Bengals are roughly 11.5- to 12.5-point favorites (moneyline in the -600 range, ~80–85% implied win probability depending on the book and model). Tennessee is 1-6 with one of the league's worst offenses (low scoring, limited yards per play, and a recent trade of Jeffery Simmons). Cincinnati is healthier, at home, and coming off a strong showing. This is widely viewed as the best spot left on their schedule.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
- We've already burnt Jacksonville in Week 1, so they are widely unavailable to most people. But if you were smart enough to save them, Indianapolis is a mess — trades of key pieces (including Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner), offensive issues, and a 2-5 record. Jacksonville is coming off a bye and is in a strong home spot against a division rival they’ve handled in recent meetings. Many people who already used the Bengals (or want to differentiate) are landing here.
- New England Patriots (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins
- Road division games make me shiver my timbers. Miami is 1-5 and among the league’s worst teams. New England has solid availability in many pools. AJ Brown is questionable for Sunday. I changed my mind I don't want anything to do with the Pats.
Other notables
- Dallas Cowboys (vs. Arizona) — Decent home favorite, but many are saving them for Thanksgiving. Not a bad play.
- Los Angeles Rams (vs. Chargers) — Solid home favorite against an 0-6 team. The Chargers are eventually going to win one right????? We've only been saying this for weeks now.
- Washington Commanders (vs. Philadelphia) — Home favorite (around -6.5) with the Eagles banged up (Jalen Hurts out for the rest of the season; Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and Dontayvion Wicks haven't practiced).
Bottom line: Bengals over Titans is the consensus Survive & Advance play. Jaguars over Colts is the best high-upside alternative if you’re fading the chalk or already used Cincinnati. I'd probably have the Cowboys second since we already used Jacksonville. Everything else is questionable. One last time to RIDE THE CHALK BABY.
I hope you guys enjoyed this series! So sad to see it end so soon. In other news, MLB offseason news and notes are coming back as soon as next week!!! Qualifying offers have to be submitted by next Monday. Which teams are going to hand out a one-year $ 23.15 million contract? Jon did a great job on the new website; can't wait for the 2027 MLB Season to start!!
