Division Dive - NL Central
A look at the early season data from the NL Central
Check out my recent AL Central dive here.
We arrive at my favorite division, and it’s even more of a favorite because the Pirates seem to be kinda decent this year. It should be a fun summer for me. Way more opportunities for me to tell my kids they can’t watch Bluey because the Pirates are playing.
Typically, it’d be Bluey city like May 15th because the Pirates would be eight games under .500, but it feels like they’ll make a push into the later months of the season. And who knows, maybe they’ll even grab a playoff spot.
My kids would then become conditioned to not like the Pirates, because they’d be taking TV time and their dad’s attention away from them. I’m not sure which one of those things they’d miss more.
Pirates
Lineups
Last two weeks lineup grid:
This doesn’t include Wednesday’s game. We’ve seen Konnor Griffin come in and struggle. He hasn’t hit higher than sixth, and he’ll be buried down there until he starts hitting.
It’s a very left-handed top of the lineup, but Oneil Cruz has sat just once and Lowe twice. So they’re in there, and Cruz has been the lead-off man against lefties as well with the great start he’s off to.
Marcell Ozuna would certainly be an everyday guy if he hadn’t been one of the worst hitters in the league so far. That atrocious start has pushed him to the bench more than we envisioned.
Jake Mangum is about a half-time player, Cruz’s hot start doesn’t help his playing time. His path to regular playing time was getting in there in centerfield every time against a lefty and then spelling guys like Reynolds and O’Hearn from time to time as well.
The third base vacancy left by Jared Triolo has been filled mostly by Nick Yorke. But Nick Gonzales has gotten a start recently there, and he’s the backup shortstop when Konnor Griffin gets a day off.
Hitters
It’s a pretty top-heavy lineup. Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, and Ryan O’Hearn have all started very well. Those four have 16 of the team’s 20 homers.
At least Marcell Ozuna isn’t striking out that much, but his max EV is 105 and he has a 2.9% Brl%. He’s useless in fantasy leagues with that DH-only eligibility.
Nick Yorke has piled up a good number of base hits with a .275 average and a .388 OBP, and his .287 xBA, 18% K%, and 12% BB% back that up. He’s a patient hitter with a good contact rate, so he’ll get base knocks. But the 47% GB%, 6% Air Pull%, and 6.3% Brl% show he doesn’t have a ton of power. That said, he does hit the ball pretty hard (113.5 max, 106.2 EV90). There will be some homers, but he’s probably more of a hard line drive singles hitter, as we’ve seen so far.
Oneil Cruz is a pretty large sell high right now, if you can make that happen. He’ll be a high BABIP guy with his league-topping EVs and sprint speed, but right now it’s above .430, and he’s still whiffing a ton with a 60% Contact% and a K% north of 30%. But I wouldn’t blame anybody for wanting to ride it out. The steals are there, there will be at least 20 homers this year, and with the better hitting behind him, it could be a massive season.
LUCK METRICS:
I hate to say it, but the Pirates do look to be over-performing at the top. Brandon Lowe has never had this low of a K% or this high of a BB%, Oneil Cruz’s BABIP, O’Hearn’s never quite been this good. Most of these guys are sell-highs if you can make that happen.
The one “deep league dude to know” is Yorke, who could end up being a pretty solid source of volume and batting average, while chipping in some homers and steals along the way.
Pitchers
Paul Skenes is still shaking off that Opening Day start with an ERA of 4.00, which probably doesn’t even make sense to that dude. His K% is just 25%, and it’s a weirdly high 9.4% BB% as well. Kinda weird, but what are you going to do? Trade him?? come to think of it, I’d probably do that if you’re bagging a stud hitter in return.
Braxton Ashcraft has probably been their best starter so far. No homers allowed, a 3% K%, a 7.6% BB%. You can’t do it much better than that. They are limiting his pitch count (87, 87, 77), but he’s locked into the rotation and pitching extremely well (2.58 JA SIERA). I do think he’ll come down in K% toward 25%, and up in walk rate a bit (37.8% Ball% so far). He’s not this good, so he’s a sell-high in that regard.
Bubba Chandler has a 19% BB% in the early going with only a 22% K%. He just has no consistent command of his fastball, which he’s throwing 60% of the time. There’s plenty of work to do, and the 1.57 WHIP has been a killer so far. You can’t feel great about starting him right now. But if he find the feel on that fastball and start filling up the zone with it, he’s going to be excellent. His changeup has also been good when used (19.6% SwStr%, 33% Ball%, 67% GB%), but he’s been behind in counts too much to really get to use it (18% usage even though it’s his second-highest use pitch).
Mitch Keller gave some of the hot start back this week, but he has also wildly over-performed early on with a 2.86 ERA on a 5.6% K-BB%. These numbers are awful:
I don’t think anybody is going to buy Keller since we’ve seen so much of him, but you could still try it, I guess, in deep leagues where he’s rostered. A 6% K-BB%, sheesh.
One more dude, Carmen Mlodzinski. He threw six scoreless after the screenshots were already in this post, so here’s the update:
He’s not a sub-two ERA dude, but a 14% K-BB% with home run suppression can work. And look at him, going 5.1 and six innings these last two.
It’s a 52% GB%, so that backs up the home run suppression. The splitter, curve, and changeup are all natural ground ball pitches. But the K% doesn’t seem to be likely to much above 20%, if at all. An 8.5% SwStr% is very low. But he’s done a lot better than we expected; he’s definitely a dude for 15-team leagues right now.
Plenty of sell-high from this Pirates ’ hot start. And that sucks, I’m kinda mad I wrote this.
BULLPEN
It’s kind of gross! We thought it’d be Dennis Santana, but they have been mixing and matching. He has two saves, and Gregory Soto has one. Santana also blew one. You should always prefer the righty in these situations, but it looks like Soto and maybe even Mason Montgomery will grab a handful or two of saves this year.