K’s are down quite a bit (23% K%), but the results have been mostly the same. The 14.7% SwStr% is in line with a much higher K%, so we expect more strikeouts. The one worry I might have, and the reason he doesn’t get the TEN is that the fastball hasn’t been all that great. Just a 92 MLB DW grade on the pitch, so he’s a bit over-reliant on the splitter for my liking.
Shohei Ohtani - 9
I’m not sure if I can give out a ten here for the Dodgers since they’re in full six-man rotation mode. Ohtani leads the league in ERA right now (5+ GS), but he’s 7-8 innings below the other non-Dodger leaders. Multiply that by 4-5 and you’ll get him coming up 30-40 innings short of the league leaders, so the pristine ratios just don’t help you in the same ways as you’ll get with other studs.
Tyler Glasnow (HURT) - 7
It was only back spasms, and chances are he’ll be back somewhat quickly. But… it’s not the first time with back issues for Glasnow. So it’s hard to say that we’ll definitely get 90+ innings from him after he returns.
Blake Snell - 7
I’m writing this before his MLB debut, but it doesn’t really matter to me what happens in the next few starts. As long as he’s healthy and stays such, he’ll be one of the better fantasy starters in the league. There’s also the perceived advantage that his innings count is just now starting. So if they envisioned 130 regular season innings for him, well, that’s pretty much a full workload from here on out. That said, it’s a six-man rotation, so you’re getting one start a week from him on average the rest of the way home.
I’m giving him a seven because we haven’t seen it yet, and he can never be trusted to stay healthy, and he’ll probably have some of those 4-5 walk starts along the way to damage the whiff a bit.
Emmet Sheehan - 7
I’m a believer. The 16.1% SwStr% is elite, the 22% K-BB% is awesome. He’s among the league leaders in whiffs per start, so I think he’ll be just fine. The .348 BABIP and 27% HR/FB are going to come down.
Justin Wrobleski - 5
He’s right behind Ohtani on the ERA leaderboard, but do you think he’s magic or something? Do the rules not apply to him? You might want to believe that if you’ve been enjoying the fruits of that pickup early on. But it’s a horrible, horrible 3.5% K-BB% with a .222 BABIP and ZERO HOMERS GIVEN UP yet. Prepare yourselves. My bet is that he’s back in the bullpen before long.
Padres
Michael King - 7
It’s a .226 BABIP for King. But he’s probably a lower BABIP guy, and we shouldn’t expect him to give up many homers. He’s given up a strong .308 xwOBA and the K% is up to 25%. But the walk rate (11%) is a bit of a nuisance, and he’s another guy who has had plenty of injuries lately. I’m at like a 6.6 for him, but he rounds up to seven.
Randy Vasquez - 4
Seems like the spring and early season magic is wearing off.
The K% is at 22% now, which is still way up from last year, but it’s going the wrong way (just 11 strikeouts in his last three). A 12.4% SwStr%, a 35% Ball%, and a 3.90 JA ERA. I wouldn’t really want to start him.
Walker Buehler - 3
He’s looking better than in the most recent years. But it’s a 21% K% with a 9.5% BB% and a much worse ball rate above 38%. His 4.61 JA ERA tells you something. It’s a good park to not turn those fly balls into homers, but I don’t think Buehler is going to give you much to like.
If he didn’t have those good years before the injuries, I don’t think anybody would even be paying attention to him.
