Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!

Two hundred and fifty years of America today. That's a milestone worth pausing on for a second before we get to the slate. Freedom, family, faith, and a country where you can build something of your own from nothing. I don't take that for granted. Now let's honor the founders the right way: with a cold drink, a full grill, and a sim that's about to tell us exactly where the field is wrong tonight.

The Run Environment

The sim’s top two totals sit alone at the top: SF @ COL at 12.73 and STL @ CHC at 12.58. Coors is Coors, but the sim isn’t just rubber-stamping the park. It has SF putting up 6.89 runs against Tomoyuki Sugano and COL at 5.84. In Chicago, the Cubs are the story at 7.27 runs against Kyle Leahy, with St. Louis chipping in 5.32. After putting up 17 yesterday who knows what they do

The second tier is a cluster of double-digit games: MIA @ ATH (11.24), BAL @ CIN (10.54), SD @ LAD (10.28), and PHI @ KC (10.20). These are where the field spreads out.

The quiet spots are just as important. CWS @ CLE (7.24), NYM @ ATL (7.89), and TB @ HOU (8.12) are the pitcher-friendly games. That is not a coincidence, and it tells you exactly where to look for arms.

MLB Data Warehouse

Main Slate 7-4 Happy 250th America!!!

Comments on this post are for paid subscribers