First, the week five breakdown is completed. The version you got in your inbox was not the full thing, so you’ll have to open it in the browser to get the updates.
NFL DFS Breakdown: Week Five
This post is now complete. The first version of it was missing some games, but it’s all done now.
App Updates
The password has changed, so scroll down below the paywall to get the new password. But I’ve added some things and upgraded some things.
I’ll just go page by page to tell you what’s there.
Book Based Projections
No change to this one. It looks good enough to me. This takes the lines from the betting markets and converts them into a projection. Very useful for your fantasy lineup decisions. The limitation is that not all players have markets, and I only scrape it once or twice a day. It’s not a live connection. I only have so many API credits, so I have to take it easy. So if you’re between a couple guys to put into your starting lineup, you can see what the book lines are saying about them.
Game by Game
The biggest thing is the grades. They’ve been there all year, but there’s enough data now to use them. That uses yards per play and adjusts for the strength of schedule they’ve played. So if you’ve averaged 7.5 yards per play but have done it against defenses that always give up high yards per play, it adjusts for that. Pretty good one-number look to see how good or bad a team’s offense and defense is.
The projections tables have also been upgraded in appearance.
Weekly Projections
Dedicated page for the DFS projections. I didn’t have that until now. I’m not claiming they’re the best DFS projections on the market, but I use them to generally guide some decisions.
Expected Fantasy Points
Big facelift here. I want to use xFP a lot. And now you have a one-stop shop to see that. You’ve got the differential table which compares actual vs. expected fantasy points and shows you the differences so you can see which guys are over or under performing their opportunity.
You can look at a certain week or team and chop it up. And there’s a cool “Player spotlight” section where you can pick one player and see how it’s gone:
Line Movement
This is brand new. I scrape the game lines every day, I’ve been doing that since the beginning of the season. So you can see where lines opened in the pre-season, or more usefully, where they were seven days ago or three days ago or one day ago.
Player Grades
No changes here, and I’ve detailed how those work in the past. Hopefully you know by now! But it takes my favorite evaluation stats for each position and turns them into one score. You can select a week interval or just see the full season stuff.
Get in there and poke around and let me know what questions or requests you might have! I’m trying to make your subscription worth it here while baseball is wrapping up.