Week six is here! Some of your fantasy teams might be dead, but DFS rolls on, and there’s always a way to get a piece of the fantasy football action.
I’ve been having a ton of fun writing up all of these games this year, so we’re going to hit it hard again this week. We have bye weeks upon us, and continued games in Europe. So the slates are getting smaller, which is kind of nice.
Detailed Projections Might Be Coming
I’m also trying to go full “projection bro”. I’ve been working on some detailed NFL projections (with all of the stats given rather than just the fantasy points). I might debut those this week. I’m looking for a few testers that can take a close look and identify where things don’t look right. This stuff isn’t easy to do, but I think I have the knowledge of the game and the AI chops to get something decent out there.
AI will do most of the work in math these days. A lot of different people could open up ChatGPT and tell it to make an NFL projection model. It might look decent, but you need more than that to make something decent. What you need is the right data to feed in and the correct knowledge and prompting abilities to refine everything. The toughest part is figuring out usage when players are hurt, which they are every week. So I’m working on that. Let me know if you want to be a part of the testing.
Implied Totals
There’s a new page on the NFL app with this information. I’m trying to consolidate everything into the app. So check that out if you’re a paid sub with access.
Rams (vs. ARI): 33 points
Bills (vs. LV); 28.75 points
Bears (vs. ATL): 26.25 points
Colts (vs. TEN): 25.75 points
Patriots (vs. NYJ): 25.5 points
We have the Rams with a ridiculous 33-point implication. That will be a key game for us. The Bills stay on the West Coast to face the Raiders, and they imply a large number as well.
Game O/Us
BUF/LVR 53.5
GB/DAL 52.5
LAR/ARI 25.2
ATL/CHI 49.5
Those are the big four. But it’s best to look at each game in isolation.
Bears vs. Falcons
The Bears' defense grade is low, and it was low last week, which put us on the Packers' side for a big day. They smashed the Bears' defense last week, and now a red-hot Falcons offense gets to take a crack at them at home.
Chicago has allowed 6.0 yards per play, one of the worst in the league. 8.7 per pass attempt, 4.4 per rush. It’s bad.
The Falcons’ defense is much better, allowing 4.8 yards per play (6.2 per pass, 3.7 per rush). They grade out at a 113 grade, which is very good.
Both QBs are listed as questionable, but it looks like we’re getting both guys back this week. So we can play this one as normal.
Quarterbacks
Michael Penix ($5,000) has been excellent in three games. This is one of the things that has surprised me most this year. Penix was not very impressive in his first two years, and then he sustained another major leg injury and missed a bunch of time and did not have a normal preseason. But then he shows up and starts balling. +0.34 EPA, 9.2 yards per pass attempt, 3:1 TD:INT, and 719 passing yards in three games. He’s been one of the most efficient QBs in the league, and he’s the “top right” most QB in the NFL since week three.
The schedule has been pretty easy for him. He’s faced the Packers, Saints, and Ravens in his first three games. But it doesn’t get any tougher this week. Is he in play for DFS? Probably not in cash games. They get very run-heavy close to the goal line, and Penix himself has four rushing yards all year. So the floor is pretty low even while he’s having no trouble piling up some passing yards.
Caleb Williams ($6,200) is pretty affordable in his return, but I’d rather not rush into this against a good Falcons defense. We don’t know if the hamstring will be back to 100%, and the Bears offense still isn’t quite a proven juggernaut. Maybe they’ll prove to be with Williams in there, but there’s not enough evidence for me yet.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson ($8,700) has not increased in price since week four.
He’s averaged more than 20 xFP per week since they got Penix in there at QB.
He has at least 20 opportunities in each game and he’s gone above 30 twice.
And he might be the best athlete in the game on the offensive side of the ball. I’ve always believed that the best athletes are probably the defensive ends or something, but that’s a debate for another time. Anyways, you get it. Bijan has everything you want. Elite role, elite talent, and an elite matchup this week. All of this while ceding four rushing touchdowns to the other B Robinson. You could look at that as a negative thing since they’re happy to get Brian in there when they’re close. Or you could say that Bijan should actually be more expensive because you wouldn’t expect these two to share the rushing touchdowns evenly the rest of the season. It’s really hard to look away from these stud RBs even at the highest price points in DFS cash.
We have D’Andre Swift ($6,700) in play as well, since we figure that Kyle Monangai should miss a second game. But it’s a tough defense to score against. And the Bears used Roschon Johnson kind of a lot last week. Swift played just 57% of the snaps and carried it nine times (Johnson received five carries, so a significant role in a low-volume week). Swift saved his day with a touchdown and a 4-30 receiving result on five targets.
But the price is up, the matchup is worse, and we didn’t get the 80% of snaps and 90% of RB opportunities role we thought we might last week. I like some other guys in this range more, and it’ll be tough to fit a $6500-$7000 RB in there with Bijan/Walker if we’re playing one or both of them. But Swift goes on the list anyways, because he does have a better role with Monangai out.
Pass Catchers
It’s Drake London ($7,000) and then everyone else in the passing game for Atlanta. A 35% target share, 31.3% TPRR, 5.1 yards per route with Penix in there.
And I think he should be more expensive. Look at where he lines up in Tgt/Route and Yards/Route since week three:
Both of these Falcons studs are in play. So much of the offense goes through those two, and the matchup doesn’t get a whole lot better. I think it’s really good for them that Caleb Williams is returning as well. That should help the Bears move the ball better and generate more urgency and more points for the Falcons.
We have seen three different QBs for the Bears, so there hasn’t been continuity. Williams most-targeted WR in weeks 1-2 was Kalif Raymond. It’s been really spread out and hard to read:
Burden’s the best guy they have in my book, and he leads them with that 22% target share and 25.2% target per route. But only 266 yards on 23 receptions with a non-elite 1.9 yards per route. The price popped up as well:
I think he’s an okay play, and he’s my favorite one. But I don’t think I can get to any Bears players this week.
Colston Loveland ($4,900) is under $5K for the first time.
He is on the field an absolute ton with an 85% snap share. But the opportunity has been weak in all but week four:
I think he’s a strong tourney play. The workload is there; it just hasn’t happened for him yet, with a weak 57% catch rate turning into 0.79 yards per route. We don’t suddenly just think he’s bad. Some better weeks are coming, but this isn’t the spot to bet on it in cash.
Recap
I would call it foolish to not have some Falcons exposure this week. They’re a great three-man stack in this one with Penix + London + Bijan. I’m in on Bijan and London in cash. Probably not both, but certainly one of them. Smash spot for the Falcons, who could score 40 points in this spot.
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