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I’m on double-duty today handling the betting preview. There are a lot of tools here at MLB DW to help you be a smarter bettor.
Projections are the core of everything when I’m doing this. No feelings, no chasing jackpots, we’re just looking to find the wrong prices.
Home Run Model
I went through all of this in an article earlier this week. Read that if you’re interested in how this works.
We start here, with the most popular market. Of course, right after I hyped it up, it’s lost at a super high rate the last three days. But still +15 units on the year. These hits come in waves. Most of the profit is from a couple handfuls of really big days. But here are the plays if you’re into it:
It’s surprising that Buxton +262 and Schwarber +292 qualify. Usually we’re not getting +EV until we’re at +500 for much less popular players.
I’m taking both of them to the bank.
Let’s do this:
Buxton +262 [0.5 unit]
Schwarber +292 [0.5 unit]
Buxton + Schwarber +1325 [0.25 unit]
The long shots I like
Varsho +528
Machado +575
The other biggest price gaps that don’t qualify in one of the other judgment criteria:
Pitcher H+ER+BB
I have not been tracking these. Tread lightly. It takes my daily projections and compares them to the lines DraftKings offers in this new market.
Misiorowski over 6.5 (projection = 8.8)
Cantillo over 7.5 (projection = 10.8)
Alvarez under 8.5 (projection = 7.4)
L Castillo Over 8.5 (projection = 10.3)
Paul Skenes over 6.5 (projection = 8.5)
David Sandlin under 8.5 (projection = 7.8)
GAME O/Us
We’re holding steady at 54% in the O/U model. This uses the projections and gets a projected game O/U, and then tracks it all along. So 54% is pretty good; that’s a winning model.
Today we have four OVERS:
CHC/MIL OVER 7
COL/MIN OVER 9
MIA/STL OVER 8
LAD/SD OVER 7.5
Hits Bets
If you’re playing Beat The Streak or one of those hits survivors, there’s a sick resource for you if you’re a paid sub.
The book prices are going to be JUICED on these guys, so it’s mostly useful for those streak contests where you need a guy to just get a single hit to advance.
The pick is Otto Lopez against McGreevy.
Steals Picks
I’ve gotta data all over the place kids!
My steals picks will be Pete Crow-Armstrong +575 and Henry Bolte at +425 on MGM. Those prices are just silly over there on MGM, I bet they’re losing money on that market.
A longshot: Tommy Troy +1150 on MGM
Another longshot: Anthony Seigler +1250 on MGM.
I guess MGM is the place to bet steals. The prices being so much better over there suggest that you might actually be able to win if you’re consistent. Let me know if you’re trying it, I’m not gonna get into it over there. I have an account, I think, but I don’t wanna put money in there.
Pirates
I like the Pirates, if you haven’t been able to realize that yet. It’s Skenes vs. Abbott, O/U over 7.5 with the Bucs being -193.
I love the under on this one. The Pirates are BAD against lefties, believe me on that. And Skenes has pitched very well lately despite some tough luck in the WINS column, and the Reds have been awful offensively for a while now.
Both bullpens kinda suck, so we could get sniped on that. But I’m thinking it’s a 3-1 Pirates win.
Sneaky Pitchers
I’ve got four pitchers I found during the DFS slate preview that I think are better than the markets are giving them credit for.
JT Ginn at LAA
6+ strikeouts -103
David Sandlin at KC
5+ strikeouts +134
Taj Bradley vs. COL
Under 9 H+BB+ER -120
Andrew Alvarez at BAL
Over 13.5 outs -135
Game Sims
Check out the sims tool, it’s free to access today. I think you’ll like it!
As explored in the slate preview, the offenses we’re most interested in:
Twins vs. Sugano
Brewers vs. Rea
Marlins vs. McGreevy
Pile up some H+R+RBI correlations for the top of those lineups. Something like this to capitalize on the lineup correlation:
Stud Hitters in Juiced Matchups
Byron Buxton vs. Sugano
Yordan Alvarez vs. Montero
Junior Caminero vs. Gallen
Kyle Stowers vs. McGreevy
I’ve not done anything here besides translate the data available to all PRO subscribers! If you like what you’re seeing, upgrade today and get it for the rest of the season.
If you’re a standard paid sub, you’ll only be charged the difference based on what you’ve already paid. It’s just $125/year, and you’ll lock that price in for next year as well, as long as I don’t decide to build a new website or the season gets canceled, or something.
Anyways, this was fun! Enjoy the baseball tonight and have a great weekend out there.