The Sharp & The Fish: Round Three
A series where we pick out the best and worst picks in each round
Click here to view the rest of this series.
Round three! Be sure to read the first post, if you haven’t already, to be clear on what I’m doing in this series.
Here are my options this time:
SHARP: YORDAN ALVAREZ
I considered Logan Gilbert here as well, because I do think Gilbert has SP1 overall upside for a dude you can get in round three or four.
But it feels like a great time to buy Yordan Alvarez, doesn’t it? Coming off his worst year so far, where he played in just 48 games and went for a .797 OPS, by far the lowest of his career.
So we get a big discount on a guy whose 162-game average is this:
→ .297/.389/.573, 103 R, 41 HR, 118 RBI
It can be tough to pull the trigger on a dude who has been hurt this much, but to me, it’s not a Buxton situation yet. It was a broken hand and an ankle sprain last year. Those aren’t injuries that will linger into 2026. So yeah, I’m very much in one round three Yordan Alvarez. And if I die, I die.
FISH: HUNTER BROWN
You’re probably not surprised! But I have to stay on brand, and I really believe in this one. I believe so much in the hate I have for top 40 ADP Hunter Brown. And if you stand for nothing, you’ll fall for anything.
I don’t think I need to go over my issues again on this page. It’s here, it’s here, and it’s here:
But to give you the one-liner: I think he was crazy lucky to have a 28% K% and an 8% BB%, and the underlying numbers make me think he’s a 25% K% and 9% BB% guy next year, which adds at least a quarter of a run to his ERA.
He’s not going to kill you; he’s a very solid pitcher with a good heater and a great curveball, and I think he’s a volume stud. But he’s priced like a Jacob deGrom right now, and I think in reality he’s more like a Framber Valdez.
I have to comment on this Ben Rice thing. You rarely see anything like it. The kid is around a 40 ADP now after starting at 75, and nothing has changed. He was always a sharp pick, but it’s just been like a reverse game of chicken this draft season to see who can get him first. Everybody wants him, everybody knows other people want him, so he keeps getting picked earlier and earlier. It’s wild to see.
I liked him a ton around ADP 65, but inside the top 40, that’s tough, and it’s starting to feel a little fishy.