It's getting better for the Athletics as they make their way to Vegas. One more season in Sacramento, where pitchers go to die.

There were 3.4 homers hit per game in Sacramento last year. That was by far the most (Wrigley was #2, down at 2.94). The A's bad pitching staff had something to do with that. But the 57% HR/Brl shows that the park is the main factor. It's a joke of a ballpark, but good for the fantasy value of the bats we'll talk about.

They were brutalized by injuries. Jeff McNeil led the team with 122 games played.

Tyler Soderstrom: 106 games
Shea Langeliers: 105 games
Nick Kurtz: 97 games
Jacob Wilson: 80 games
Brent Rooker: 47 games

That's a lot of power on the IL. With one year left to play in Sacramento, we have huge potential for the four home run hitters on that list. Kurtz and Langeliers could hit 40+ bombs; Rooker and Soderstrom could clear 30. They just need health.

And they need some pitching help, which I don't think is coming. The offense could be one of the better ones in the league, I think, but the lack of talent in the rotation and bullpen will make it tough for them to compete. And it doesn't make much sense for them to build their roster based on this park, since they'll be moving to a new one in 2028 as long as things stay on schedule.

The new park will have a roof. A non-retractable roof! So the humidity won't play a part. Depending on the dimensions, it could be a neutral park. It could even end up being kinda pitcher-friendly. It's a similar situation to Arizona, and that park has played pretty neutral overall.

We'll talk a lot more about that next year. For now, let's see what we can find on the homeless Athletics squad.

Here's what it looks like for now:

Not too many weak spots in the lineup. And the rotation looks a little better ahead of 2027 than it did ahead of 2026. But there's not much help coming from the minor leagues. I think this is a pretty good picture of what it will look like come April.

Hitters

Nick Kurtz

Age: 23
Position: 1B

Kurtz went in the second round last year, and that didn't work out. The missed time was the primary reason for that, but he was playing well below his rookie year while healthy.

After an OPS above one in his first year, it dropped down to .874 in those 99 games in year two. .253/.394/.480 slash line with 21 bombs (4.8% HR%) and seven steals.

That's still really good production, and maybe a hot-weather heater would have lifted that OPS well into the 900s.

But it's not the cleanest profile in the world. There are two problems that remain:

Strikeout rate (almost 33% in 2026)
Trouble vs. LHP (.216/.298/.407 career)

He whiffs a ton. A 72.5% Zone Contact% in the bigs now. That limits the number of base hits he can get in there, and his xBA is around .250 now.

The other thing I want to note right away is the walk rate. He's a patient, feared hitter. That will turn into high walk rates consistently. It was 13% in 2025, and then up to a ridiculous 18% in 2026.

It's nice to have for OBP/points leagues, but walking almost a fifth of the time takes an uncomfortable amount of balls in play off the board. He's one of the best you'll ever see when making contact with the ball. But that just doesn't happen very often. He walked or struck out in 51% of his plate appearances. That's the third-most in the league in "K+BB%", which is a stat you've probably never seen before. Shout out to me, the king of useless stats!

It does matter, though. You want 40 bombs from a guy like Kurtz. That's why you pick him in the 3rd round (which is what I'd guess his cost is this year). But he turns 700 PAs into only around 350 chances to hit a homer, which means he has to hit a homer every nine trips to the plate to get to 40.

We bake in regression now. The K% is likely to improve as he gets more reps, and the 18% BB% is primed for plenty of regression as well.

I could guess at a 29% K% and a 14% BB%. That gives him more chances, but the point I'm making, I think, is clear. It's tougher for this plate approach to put him up huge HR + RBI numbers just because there are fewer chances for extra-base hits.

Kurtz saw a 42% Ball% against. He takes a lot of pitches with his 42% Swing%, but after hitting 57 homers in his first 216 games, I don't think pitchers are looking to throw him a ton of strikes. Walking Kurtz with an out or two and nobody on base doesn't seem like a bad outcome to me if I'm the pitcher.

But he hits leadoff (against righties, at least), which I think is really sharp. You don't want to walk the leadoff guy, and the Athletics have some really good bats behind him when they're healthy - so I do think that BB% comes down at least a few points in 2027.

The seven steals were nice to have; he probably would have stolen double-digit bags. But it was only a 6% attempt rate, so he's not hyper-aggressive there, but he's opportunistic and able to swipe the bag when needed (88% success% last year).

Another note is that his air-pull rate was just 11%. That's very low. He hits a ton of screaming line drives and fly balls to center field and the opposite way. And this ballpark can turn those into homers, but it's a little bit concerning for me. Only 21% of his barrels were pulled. He still managed a 47% HR/Brl, which is about the league average, but that's lower than what you'd expect for a 110 EV90 guy in this home park. He's a hard-contact, extra-base-hit machine, but there could be a year or two in the future where he hits a ton of doubles and ends up with a somewhat disappointing home run total.

A hitter of this caliber at this age in this ballpark is a guy who won't fall very far down draft boards. Maybe he gets a little more aggressive, raises the contact rate, and jams out 50 bombs next year. He's one of the few guys who can do that. So I'm not letting Kurtz go outside of the top 30 or anything like that, but if he's going to be an early-second-round pick again, I don't think I like that very much.

Projection
145 G, 106 R, 40 HR, 97 RBI, 7 SB, .260/.382/.535

Rank
He's pretty close with Zach Neto. They are two very different players, but I'll give Kurtz the nod; I just think his overall floor is a bit better.

Shea Langeliers

Age: 29
Position: C

Just 106 games played last year, but he did make it back at the end of the year to show that the injury is behind him as we head toward 2027.

He was elite in the early months of the season, and overall had a nice season with 23 bombs in 106 games and an .802 OPS. But when he came back from injury, the power wasn't there. He hit .250/.294/.292 in 51 PAs at the end of the year. So maybe he wasn't fully healthy, or maybe he just didn't have enough time to get the timing back.

From the second half of 2025 through the first half of 2026, though, he was looking like one of the best hitters in the game. Here's what he did from July 17th, 2025, to when he got injured in 2026:

.287/.344/.554 with 41 HR in 660 PA

That's about a full season's worth of games. So a .287 average with 41 bombs. That's a pretty awesome pace for any position, and it's made all the sweeter by the fact that he's a catcher.

Power
Good bat speed. Not elite, but high enough to make you believe in him as an easy 30+ homer guy. The EVs weren't the greatest last year, with a 105.1 EV90 on fly balls. But the home park boosts him, and he gets a good number of balls in the air and posted a strong 13% Brl% on a 23% K%.

Middling air pull at 16%, but that's fine. He pulled 44% of his barrels and converted 49% of them for homers. He'll be one of the highest-projected HR catchers, and he does it with a decent batting average.

It seems like a great year to buy him for power, but this new ballpark next year might take away a handful of dingers depending on how they design it.

Speed
Not much to speak of, as is the case with most catchers. But he does have 10 steals from 2025-2026, so you get one every once in a while. 5-10 steals from a catcher is actually quite good, so he doesn't really fail this test.

Discipline
After struggling with a high K% in his first three seasons, he brought it under 20% in 2025 and kept it under control at 23% last year.

He does not walk much (8% last year, 7% in 2025), and he's a moderately aggressive hitter with a 50% Swing% and 33% Chase%. You can get him to go fishing; he's not really up there to walk.

.263 xBA last year; the contact gains he's made in the last two years really facilitated this breakout.

Final Thoughts
He would've likely been a 30-homer, .260 batting average last year had he stayed healthy, and that's a decent expectation for next year. The DH reps will be tougher to come by with Rooker back in there. We're looking at around 525 PAs, probably. That will come up 80-100 short of the leaders at the position, and that does matter when drafting a catcher. But he's one of the best hitters at the position, and he'll have a ton of RBI opportunity with Kurtz hitting ahead of him.

So I'm down for Langeliers. He's going to be there with Baldwin at the top of the list for me. I'm just kinda hoping the missed time last year will keep him out of the top 4-5 rounds in drafts. A lot of this is league-specific with catchers.

I'm typically looking to wait at the position and find the late-round breakouts or just find the answer during the season. But Langeliers has the easy ability to be #1 at the position, and I do want to get some exposure to this healthy Athletics lineup in their last season in Sacramento.

Projection
117 G, 69 R, 27 HR, 77 RBI, 4 SB, .252/.316/.477

Rank
#4 behind Devers, in front of Goodman. So he's my new #1 catcher

Henry Bolte

Age: 23
Position: OF

We arrive at Bolte. He will no doubt be one of the most hyped-up "breakout" candidates of the season. I'm guessing we'll see his price be a top 100 player. It's all for good reason, but he's going to be well known with a bunch of people trying to draft him in leagues that are in any way competitive.

The main allure is the physical skills:

95th percentile bat speed
100th percentile sprint speed

His EVs didn't fall right in line with the bat speed (82nd percentile), but yes, he hit the ball really hard and hit it hard often (87th percentile hard hit rate).

The results came together as well. He hit .280/.361/.407 with 11 homers and 21 steals in 119 games. From August-September, he posted an .876 OPS, hitting .307 with eight homers and nine steals. He was a league-winning type player if you got your hands on him for the stretch run.

Power
No problems with the power in the swing. 108.6 EV90, 106.8 on fly balls, and the elite bat speed we mentioned.

The angles are the thing that could hold him down. Just a 7.7% Air Pull% and a 62% GB%. So there you go, that's a problem. During the final two months, it was a 10.4% Air Pull% and 61% GB%, so it didn't even get better when he was really crushing.

We have this attack angle data now. I'll use it in these cases with players we haven't seen a ton of.

It's a pretty flat swing, as you'd imagine seeing the 60% GB%. So we might end up seeing some Yandy Diaz/Vlad Guerrero problems with him. Tons of hard-hit balls, eye-popping EVs, but not a swing that is reliable for home runs.

That's the negative side of it. The positive side is, what if he tweaks the swing and lifts the ball more? Then he pops off for a ton of homers with the bat speed. Think of Jordan Walker last year. That's a pretty good comp tools-wise.

But okay, we know that bat speed doesn't necessarily turn into gaudy home run totals. It's something you want to have, but there's a lot more to hitting homers in the Majors than just swinging the bat hard.

Speed
This is the best tool. 21 steals, 21% attempt%, tons of speed. He's arguably the fastest guy in the league, which he should be with a last name like Bolte. But he was caught quite a bit with a 72% success rate. I don't think that's enough to have them go to a yellow light, but if it keeps happening - they might tell him to chill out a bit. There's more to base stealing than just running fast! So we have a theme with Bolte here. He has the physical tools, but can he improve on the other elements of playing the game?

Plate Discipline
This is where he really improved in 2026. He struck out 29% of the time in the minors in 2025. He dropped that down to 22% before getting called up to the Majors. It was 28% in the Majors, so that's high. A 79.5% Zone Contact% is a little low, but it's not a huge concern. 80% is good enough for guys with big bat speed. When he gets to the ball, good things happen. The numbers you're really worried about in this category are in the low 70s.

His aggression seems properly calibrated. 50% Swing%, 28% Chase%. That's all pretty encouraging.

Final Thoughts
It seems the obstacle he needs to clear is the launch angle stuff. He hit the ball very hard, but it was on the ground too much and rarely pulled.

I found more downside than I thought I would after this close look. He has round-one caliber upside, but I'm seeing plenty of downside too that could lead to a bust at his price.

If he goes outside of the top 10 rounds, I'm all in. But I don't think he will. I think the hype will get him into the top 80, and that's at the point where you're using a 6th or 7th round pick on him. In leagues with high replacement value in the outfield, that's a risk I want to take, but his floor will likely be overstated. There are real problems in the profile.

Projection
116 G, 75 R, 17 HR, 57 RBI, 25 SB, .267/.338/.438

Rank
He's close with Jake McCarthy. But the tools, park, and upside have me being pretty aggressive. I'm putting him in #6 behind Goodman, ahead of McCarthy and Carrigg among outfielders.

Paywall time! Sign up for the Articles Tier to get every piece of written content we're doing this offseason. It's cheap! And you get NFL tools along with it all.

Brent Rooker

Age: 32
Position: DH

Rooker's season ended in July as he went for knee surgery. The first thing I want to note is that he will be DH-only on fantasy sites next year, playing just four games in the outfield. That immediately downgrades him in plenty of league types. A 32-year-old DH-only coming off a bad season both health-wise and performance-wise.

69 homers from 2024-2025 made him very much fantasy-relevant.

What we saw in 2026 in 48 games wasn't very encouraging, though. A .670 OPS with a 32% K% and a .200 average. He did keep a very good home run rate, as you'd expect with his power, approach, and home park.

But where are we at for 2027? I guess the knee concerns should be behind us. He still posted a 15.4% Brl% in his short time on the field in 2026. He hits the ball hard, gets it in the air, pulls it a lot. But that's the only tool he really has. Just eight steals the last two years with a 5% attempt rate, and the knee thing won't help that at all.

His xBA was .206 last year. So the .200 batting average wasn't even really bad luck. A .243 BABIP should come up. He was at .362 in 2024 and .302 in 2025. I think he can hit .240 with a 35-homer pace as best-case scenario.

The worst case is that the age takes away more of his power and he ends up as a .225 hitter with 25 homers and 80 RBI. That worst case even assumes that he logs 140+ games with health next year.

I'm not into DH-only players. It puts too much of a roster constraint on you. There's power upside, but he needs to realize that upside to become a very useful fantasy player.

Projection
113 G, 61 R, 23 HR, 68 RBI, 4 SB, .255/.334/.479

Rank
The comp I'm looking at right now in the ranks is with Willy Adames. Those ballparks couldn't be much different, but their skillset and age are pretty similar. Advantage to Adames since he plays shortstop.

Tyler Soderstrom

Age: 25
Position: OF

109 games played for Soderstrom as his season ended in mid-August.

Still a solid home run rate with an .810 OPS. He would have likely gotten to the mid-20s in homers with a handful of steals and a batting average that wouldn't kill you.

I thought he could blossom into a .275 hitter, but that hasn't happened. A .261 xBA in2 025, .246 last year. His xSLG came down quite a bit in 2026 (.411) as well.

So it wasn't the greatest year for Soderstrom.

Power
Overall, a 105.7 EV90, but lower on fly balls (103.8). He hits a few too many ground balls (46%), his barrel rate fell below 10% (9.5%), and the .328 xwOBA was barely above the league average.

But I think there's still growth coming. He swings hard, makes contact at a really nice rate (88% Zone Contact%, 77% overall). There's this class of hitter that is "one tweak away" that I like to get some exposure to. Soderstrom has the power to hit 30+ bombs, but he has to change the swing a bit to pull more balls in the air. He was at just a 14.4% Air Pull% last year.

Maybe he doesn't want to change, though. Not every hitter is out there tuning their swing for homers. The most likely outcome is that we see more of the same from Soderstrom and he remains a 22-24 homer bat with a .250 batting average. But that's still useful, and Soderstrom could have a nice year in R+RBI if the Athletics stay healthy.

Speed
Eight steals on a 7% attempt% in 2025, two steals on a 3% attempt% in 2026. Not a ton of foot speed, and he's never been looking to steal. So you're at like 5-7 steals.

Plate Discipline
Really nice progression on his strikeout rates the last few years. 25% in 2024, 23% in 2025, 20% in 2026. And we saw already that he's very good at making contact.

He's about a league average player in aggression. 46% Swing, solid walk rate at 11%, good Chase% at 26%.

Final Thoughts
Soderstrom is a well-rounded hitter. The Athletics invested in him with a contract extension, so he's a big part of this lineup. I'm tentative on his upside. The more we've seen from him, the less he looks like a guy who can break out for 30+ homers. But the batting average should be fine at worst and potentially very good. He knows what to swing at, swings hard, and makes contact.

Soderstrom's not a league-winning pick, but I like the floor, and I want to be invested in this Athletics lineup in their final year in Sacramento.

Projection
119 G, 66 R, 24 HR, 71 RBI, 4 SB, .258/.343/.484

Rank
He's going behind Jake McCarthy right now. But if you don't need the steals at that point in the draft, Soderstrom would be the better selection. He seems very safe. He lost 1B eligibility last year, so that hurts.

Zack Gelof

Age: 27
Position: 2B

Breakout year for Gelof in 2026. He hit 22 bombs with a .259 average and finished the year extremely well with a .914 OPS in September. Eight homers, six steals in that final month.

Some people may be tempted to extrapolate that September into next year. That's unwise, but it did show that Gelof is here to stay.

He had big problems with the strikeout in his first few years, plus injuries that kept him off the field. He brought his K% down to 24.6% last year after he was above 35% the prior two years. That's a huge gain.

His contact rate is still bothersome at 71%. In the zone, it was 76%. That tells me he could go back to a 27-29% K% next year, which would hurt.

Power
Not huge raw power here. 103.8 EV90, 10.7% Brl%, 16.6% Air Pull%. Those are all fine numbers, but he's not oozing with 30+ homer potential. I'd put him at 20-25 homers over a full year, and maybe there's some upside for more with this home park. Maybe he'll just keep getting better, building off that September. But the bat speed is mediocre and he doesn't do a ton of those peripheral things to hit a bunch of dingers.

Speed
16 steals, 19% attempt% last year. He's always been a base stealer, and he plays at second base where teams typically want some speed. His success rate was 84%, which is good. He's probably a 20-steal guy. But this isn't a Chandler Simpson 40+ steal potential guy.

Plate Discipline
This is the most important section for Gelof. He doesn't have the most raw talent in the world, so any trouble with plate discipline really hurts him.

We already mentioned the mediocre contact rates. He doesn't have the best eye at the plate, either. A 47% Swing% and 25% Chase%. Those are both around league average. So it's a big step up from what he had done prior, but still not fantastic.

Final Thoughts
I think Gelof is a 20-20 guy. And maybe I should read a little bit more into his elite September. But I'm pretty hesitant on these guys who had so much trouble in the past and then showed something in a 1-2 month sample. I think he'll end up a bit overpriced after people start chasing upside that really doesn't seem to be there from my view.

Projection
114 G, 60 R, 21 HR, 64 RBI, 14 SB, .241/.314/.439

Rank
I've got him right around Casey Schmitt; that seems to be the best comp so far.

Jacob Wilson

Age: 24
Position: SS

Another player the Athletics have already extended. Wilson got a seven-year, $70 million dollar extendo from the A's as they lock in their offensive core.

He didn't reward them much for it in 2026, playing just 80 games, hitting seven homers, and hitting .266.

This is the problem with batting average-only guys. They don't always hit for batting average. Wilson's best skill is contact. He posted K% below 10% in his first two seasons in the Majors. That did come up to near 12% last year, which is still extremely low for a K%, but it went in the wrong direction.

His xBA was .260, and he hit .266 as you can see up there. That's really not getting it done for a guy who has hit just 20 homers in 233 career games. He's also not an aggressive base stealer with only nine in his career.

What are you left with? His fantasy value in 2025 came from the .311 batting average. But we know he's far from a lock to hit .300. He can do it, and maybe we'll see the K% back down around 8% next year to help that out.

Pitchers got him to hit more ground balls last year (51% GB%). You want a really high LD% from these types of guys, and it didn't happen for Wilson in his half season in 2026.

Maybe he'll get back to hitting .290, and he has been a double-digit HR pace guy, so it's far from a zero in that category. The best case is like a .290 average with 16 homers and ten steals. That would be pretty useful, but the floor is really rough, since a .270 average with nine homers and seven steals (something like that) is also very much in the range of potential outcomes.

But at least he'll play. He's their shortstop with the contract extension.

Projection
122 G, 59 R, 12 HR, 58 RBI, 5 SB, .288/.335/.431

Rank
I don't draft players like this. I guess there's a case where I'm in the 15th round or wherever and my team's batting average is like .230. Then it makes sense, but I'll be pretty low on Wilson. I'm putting him next to Denzer Guzman for now.

Lawrence Butler

Age: 26
Position: OF

Very inconsistent career for L-But so far. I'm calling him L-But. The word "butt" is still funny to me.

Under a .240 batting average the last two years, and just a 17-homers, ten-steal season after his 21-22 the year before.

We were much more accepting of the .235 average when he was doing 20-20 with it. 2026 was a bad fantasy season for him. That's not a lot of counting stats at all for 154 games played.

But he did improve as the year went on. He hit 11 homers in August-September.

He was really awful in the first two months. After May ended, he hit .273/.358/.463 with 14 homers and six steals. That's an .821 OPS. Pretty good.

But we can't just go forgiving two months' worth of bad production. The projections certainly don't do that. I'm willing to say that it's better to start slow than end slow with regard to what will happen in the future.

Let's just look at the skills.

Power
Fine bat speed, pretty good EVs (106 EV90 on flyballs, 112.7 max EV). But the power's limited by a 52% GB% and 8.6% Air Pull%. Those are ugly numbers if you're hoping for another 20+ homer season from Butler.

He did do better in the second half with a 50% GB% and 10.4% Air Pull%, but those are still low numbers. Just an 8.6% Brl% on the season and most of them were hit to centerfield.

He does enough to be a consistent 10+ homer guy; we aren't doubting that, but it won't be super easy to get 20+ out of him if these trends continue.

Speed
Only ten steals in 154 games. His sprint speed is down in the 30th percentile. But he did swipe 22 bags on a 21% attempt in 2025.

We should note that Butler had major knee surgery in October 2025. So maybe he wasn't fully back to 100% on that, and/or maybe they just didn't want him to push it too much. A full year of staying healthy and getting further removed from that surgery could/should send his steals total up a bit.

But we're expecting more 15 than 20, I think.

Plate Discipline
Not horrible, but not good at a 26% K%. He took more walks in 2026 (11%). He's about average with the swing rate (46%) and Chase% (25%). His Z-Contact% is below 80%, though.

So his swing decisions are fine, and he's patient enough to take walks when pitchers give them, but his contact skills aren't the best.

Final Thoughts
There are a lot of problems here. I don't see a single tool that will help Butler be fantasy-relevant, but he does have at least a little bit of everything.

The silver lining might be that knee surgery a year ago. Maybe he was playing tentatively or not at 100% in 2026, and maybe he'll be much more aggressive on the bases in 2027. And maybe health and the confidence from finishing the 2026 season well will get him back to being a 20-20 guy. But I'm not seeing much hope for him hitting even .250.

My guess is that he's like a .240 hitter with 22 homers and 13 steals. Not bad, but not quite a top 350 player, I don't think.

Projection
118 G, 64 R, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 13 SB, .242/.321/.427

Rank
He's around Trout and Gelof. Pretty similar to those guys in a lot of ways. The floor's pretty low, though, he's going to have to perform to stay on the field.

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer

Age: 24
Position: 3B

Do your best not to think about ruptured testicles. It was a shame they reported that. They could have just said he had an undisclosed injury. Now we're only going to be thinking about that every time we hear the name.

But we won't make too many more of those jokes. It was a nice debut for JKG, albeit in only 21 games before the injury.

He hit .366/.392/.507 in the Majors with a homer, but no steals.

In the minors:

Elite batting average guy with speed. His K% has always been below 9%, and he's decently aggressive on the bases.

But he's a swing-heavy player. This is Luis Arraez with speed, although that's the best case because we don't know if he can really hit for high BABIPs in the Majors yet.

There's very little power. Not even 10 homers in the minors in 200+ games. And he's not a psycho on the basepaths with 40+ steal ability.

But he's up there to get base hits, and he's speedy. Nice line drive out of the gate in that short sample, and a .417 BABIP. That .417 BABIP is going to come way down, obviously, but this is a high BABIP player type.

I could see a .280 average with a handful of homers and 20+ steals if he can find his way into every day playing time. But he won't be handed the job. He'll have to perform in the spring, prove it in the regular season, and then keep proving it.

With much power, he'll really have to hit for a high batting average to make it stick. That's the main concern for me on JKG, will he actually be in the lineup?

Projection
69 G, 32 R, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 6 SB, .289/.331/.405

Rank
Hard to go very high on him while we don't know if he'll be a Major League starter, but the batting average + speed ability is pretty interesting.

Pitchers

Gage Jump

Age: 23

Jump is one of the few potential bright spots on the pitching side for the A's. But it's not too bright based on what happened in his first go at big league hitters:

20 starts, so a good sample. A 5.47 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, awful numbers. The silver lining is that his 14.2% K-BB% wasn't that bad, and his SIERA being at 4.15 is a lot better than the ERA.

A .345 BABIP allowed and a lower strand rate than what you'd expect. The ERA wasn't bloated by a big home run issue (1.09 HR/9). But that's an interesting stat to look at more.

Jump didn't give up a homer in his first six starts. 35.1 homerless innings to begin his career. And that had him looking pretty decent with a 2.04 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. After that, things went to pot. 12 homers given up in his next 63.1 innings (1.71 HR/9) and a 7.53 ERA.

Lots of mixed signals going on with Jump.

Let's look at the pitch mix.

The best thing we have is a 96mph fastball from the left side. It had a terrific 55% Strike% and 29% Ball% combination. The 12.2% SwStr% is quite good for a fastball as well. Not many lefties have this kind of velo, so he shows hitters things they rarely see. That's a very good pitch for him.

Behind it is a slider that wasn't so good, but not awful by any means. He threw it in the zone plenty, which might not have been a great thing. More called strikes than whiffs, so he wasn't really going for chases with it. It got hit to the tune of a .323 xwOBA, which is worse than league average for a slider. But the Stuff+ looks fine there. I think just some better command strategy with the fastball + slider could take him a long ways.

It also helps that he has a curveball/changeup/sweeper/sinker to tinker with. He wasn't super confident in any of them, but he has them, and he was certainly keeping hitters off balance with those offerings, as you can see by the low xwOBAs on everything but the sinker.

The home park is a real problem for Jump. If he has a rough year in 2027, I'll be so in on the guy for 2028 when they move out of this park. It's tough to win there.

But there's a lot to like with Jump. I love that fastball, I think his slider has potential, and he can develop tertiary pitches behind the big two. A 25% K% and 10% BB% isn't that bad at all, and I think there are much better days ahead.

Just look at the 3.55 JA ERA; that's a buy signal to me. For a 10- or 12-team league? Probably not... but I could see him pitching well enough to be a very good starter on the road and not completely awful at home.

Projection
148 IP, 4.17 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 9 W

Rank
#4 behind Walber Urena for now

Luis Severino

Age: 32

They gave Severino a three-year deal before the 2025 season, and they gave him a player option ahead of 2027. Which he will surely be exercising, because there wouldn't be much of a market for him in free agency.

Just a dozen starts in 2026 before a shoulder strain ended his season in late May.

I guess it wasn't going too horribly. His K-BB% came up to 12.5%, up two points from the prior year. A 4.32 SIERA at least makes him good enough to deserve a spot on a team hurting for starting pitching.

The 24% K% was way up from the previous years. His 11% SwStr% wasn't quite that good, but maybe he can be a 20%+ K% guy in the future.

He threw a bunch of sweepers, which you don't see much. But that's what you do when you don't have much success with the fastballs. Those fastballs are pretty fast, though, and his four-seamer was very good on 230 offerings.

Things were actually looking pretty good for Severino. He was getting some ground balls with the sweeper and sinker, and that's key pitching in Sacramento. And it was great to see more strikeouts, even though we don't really think he can repeat a K% above 22%.

He gave up 1.29 HR/9, which may have been hurt by a high 20% HR/FB, but you'd expect a bit higher HR/FB in Sacramento.

We don't even know the health of the shoulder stuff. Strains are a big deal. Obviously, he'll have had more than enough to time to come back, but at this age with the poor recent history, it's hard to get excited about Severino in any way.

But he'll definitely be super cheap and a guy the team will be happy to give 150+ innings too if he can handle it.

Projection
164 IP, 4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 147 SO, 8.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Rank
Between Kikuchi and Grayson Rodriguez

JT Ginn

Age: 27

I've been a Ginn believer in the past. His 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 138.1 innings in 2026 give me some validation on that. He was decent at preventing runs with his high ground ball rate and low xwOBA.

But the underlying stuff was bad. An 11% K-BB%, and a 4.43 ERA. He's a sinker-heavy righty, which helps him keep the ball in the yard, but he doesn't have any really good pitch to hang his hat on.

The biggest problem is the command. A 39% Ball% is very bad, he couldn't throw any pitch other than the sinker where he really wanted to, it seems. And he wasn't fooling too many hitters either.

The changeup is the key pitch for him. If he can keep that going and find a way to locate a fastball (any of the three), he could stick in the rotation.

The home/road splits were striking:

Much better on the road in all fashions. So that's not even just about the homers generated in Sacramento, his WHIP was elite at 1.06 in 13 road starts. I can't really explain that. He used the same pitch mix on the home and road, so it's not like he was forcing a bad sinker at home to prevent homers. But I don't know, maybe he was just more comfortable overall on the road.

Either way, Ginn's not going to be a top 100 pitcher, I don't think. We've seen plenty of him, and enough to see that he doesn't have the ceiling we want, and it's too tough to pitchin Sacramento to get me into any of these guys other than maybe Jump for standard leagues.

Projection
136 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 120 SO, 7.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9

Jacob Lopez

Age: 28

He had some moments last year. But after it was all said and done, it was a 5.47 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

Horrible numbers. He pitched so poorly at first that he had to go to the minors.

But then he was really good for a spell after coming back from the minors before blowing up his ERA late.

We should note this whopper:

Right in the middle there of his last three starts. A ten-run start on September 19th. That'll bloat the old ERA.

From July 1st on, he did post a 24% K% and 8% BB% for a solid 16% K-BB%, and there were spells in the second half where he was a 20%+ K-BB% guy.

But it didn't stick. He's a fly ball heavy pitcher in Sacramento, so the ERA isn't going to be good.

He threw 67% sliders and four-seamers. And when those pitches are going, he gets strikeouts, but they weren't going at the same time very often. He has very little velo and just a 10.3% SwStr% and bad 39% Ball%.

So yeah, when you look at the full picture, it's all very bad for Springs. And with his 34% FB% and 10.3% SwStr%, he's a good bet to repeat another 5+ ERA. Not for fantasy leagues.

Projection
129 IP, 4.92 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 117 SO, 8.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9

Rank
He's down here with the Rockies pitchers (Hughes & Adams). How do you rank these guys vs. each other? It won't really matter because they'll all fall well out of the top 100 by the time we're done with this.

Jeffrey Springs

Age: 34

Update: Springs option was declined, so he's not on the roster any longer.

He's almost like a worse, older version of Jacob Lopez.

I think the Athletics should just find a way to try to develop some younger pitching. Springs' 4.90 SIERA was one of the highest marks you'll ever find. He does nothing well. 18% K%, 9% BB%, 2.0 HR/9.

He can do better than a 6.18 ERA, of course, but why would they even give him the chance? Just move him to the bullpen; don't waste another year on Jeffrey Springs, Athletics.

Rank
Bottom of the list, we'll see if anybody can beat him.

Prospects To Know

Dudes that could play a role in redraft fantasy leagues next year:

SS Leo De Vries (mid 2027, maybe)
OF Devin Taylor (early/mid 2027)

It's pretty thin on the pitching side, unfortunately, at least for the short term. But they have a few names that could enhance this rotation in 2028 when they move into their new digs. And that's really what this squad needs to compete any time soon. The offensive core is there; they've been happy to extend guys to keep the core intact, but you can't go very far without at least a middle-of-the-pack pitching rotation.

Here's the podcast where Tim and I talked through the top 2o: