Doing fantasy baseball drafts in October is a strange thing to do. You could say it's even stranger when there's an impending lockout and so much uncertainty for the following season.

But the people are still doing it, and I'll dive in myself before too long. If nothing else, it gives us endless opportunity for content.

We have some NFBC Draft Champions and 50s Drafts in the books already. These drafters are setting the market and getting some prices that will look like highway robbery in five months. But they're also competing (for the overall prizes) with drafters who are 4-5 months in the future who are drafting with way more information. You gotta love it, though.

So the NFBC ADP dashboard has begun. And I'm here to give some first impressions. We'll go position-by-position and have some fun over the next week or so. Starting with everybody's favorite position - starting pitcher.

The link to the dashboard is in the middle of this, after the paywall. You'll also find it on the navigation bar under "2027 Prep", but your access might still be pending when you read this. I'm not here to list the names, just to give some quick reactions on guys I was surprised to see where they are.

Paul Skenes | ADP 32 | SP #5

I guess this wasn't a shock to me. I did figure that drafters would be pretty high on the guy after a fully healthy season with 200 strikeouts and the track record he has. His 2026 struggles were probably a bit overstated while we were going through them.

Still a 21.2% K-BB%, 3.35 SIERA, and those 200 strikeouts. We think he'll do better than his 3.82 ERA, and possibly way, way better. He could carve a run off of that.

Maybe the WBC was too blame? Maybe he was easing off the velo and learned a lesson that he doesn't want to do that again?

Plenty of ways to speculate. I expected Skenes to be in the top ten, but #5 overall is a little surprising to me.

Zack Wheeler | ADP 52 | SP #11

He's just old, man. Not that it showed in 2026. 28 starts, 3.00 ERA, 29.9% K%, 7.3% BB%. That was one of the most impressive feats of the season after the dude lost a rib. He's 36. He didn't finish super well (3.81 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in his final 11 starts). He had already mentioned retirement plans a couple of seasons ago.

I don't know; there's just a lot of miles on the guy. I guess a 23% K-BB% and 216 strikeouts in 182 innings will make you forget about that. But he's not an SP1 I'd want to rely on.

Dylan Cease | ADP 58 | SP #15

What does the guy have to do to get into the top 10? 169 innings, a 2.40 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, a 34.9% K%, and then SP #15?

I guess people are worried about the end of the season and the freakin' 11.4% BB% he posted. The walks really got out of control late, and 169 innings kept him a bunch shy of the leaders.

I do understand it. Nobody ever repeats a 35% K%, especially after being under 30% every year prior. And the home run suppression was brand new last year, so there are worries that he'll go back to his old ways of being very volatile and outright bad at times.

But he introduced a changeup; he became a new kind of pitcher with the new team. Homey posted a 23.5% K-BB%. Having that as your SP2? Feels pretty nice.

Lots more to come, but subscribe as a paid member (any tier you want) and you'll get the rest of this post with a whole lot more, including a projections and ADP interactive dashboard that is already live.

Here's the link to the dashboards

Drew Rasmussen | ADP 59 | SP #16

This is the first year I won't be super interested in Rasmussen. He's worthy of this price. He threw 172 innings with a 2.67 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. His 26% K% was four points clear of 2025. He was fantastic, a true ace.

But you know they'll screw around with his innings early on. I don't see 170+ innings repeating. And this was the best work of his career. So it's too much of a "buy high" for me.

Garrett Crochet | ADP 61 | SP #17

He has SP1 upside, so the #17 rank could pay off. But he's coming off a 30-inning season with injuries. So that's tough to invest in for an SP2. But he's not going to fall very far given who he is. Let me remind you what he did in 2025:

205.1 IP
2.59 ERA
1.03 WHIP
31.3% K%
5.7% BB%

Cade Cavalli | ADP 69 | SP #19

Another screaming "buy high". This guy was in the mid-300s last year, and now he's a top 20 SP?

I'm a big fan, don't get me wrong. I was trying my best to drive the hype van last year. But SP19 after one year of success in the bigs seems aggressive.

But I can't make a great anti-Cavalli numerical case. 21.5% K-BB%, 3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, high GB%. And that was after a slow start to the year. He could very well be worthy of this price; you just always have to wonder about these potential "one-hit wonders" when paying these sorts of prices.

Jared Jones | ADP 81 | SP #23

This was the most shocking name in the top 30 SPs to me. I don't think he'll remain a top 25 SP. His 2026 numbers:

101.2 IP
3.72 ERA (3.28 SIERA)
1.08 WHIP
29.6% K%
7.5% BB%
1.06 HR/9

So yeah, that's really freaking good. How he finished the year was what created this early price. From August 15th on:

42.2 IP
1.90 ERA
0.91 WHIP
34.9% K%
7.2% BB%
0.42 HR/9

He was the best version of Dylan Cease late.

And you can tell yourself a story that this is the real Jared Jones. He was coming back from Tommy John! He just needed that ramp-up phase to get the command back! And boy, did he get it back.

But what if it wasn't that? What if this was just a very nice eight-start hot streak? How much luck was involved?

It's a tough, tough price to believe in for Jones. And I'm a Pirates guy, so you know that I want it to be real.

Reid Detmers | ADP 93 | SP #28

Feels like a value to me! I get why people would be hesitant to buy in on Detmers, still on the Angels, after one good year. But boy, was it a nice year.

3.36 ERA (3.29 SIERA)
1.04 WHIP
28.5% K%
6.5% BB%

And he did his best work late in the year when he was tripling his innings from the prior year under the new coaching staff. You could have Detmers as an SP3 with this price.

Kade Anderson | ADP 108 | SP #32

Feels aggressive to me! But you can understand it. People (present company included) were calling him an SP1 when he got called up. It didn't go that way.

35.2 IP
3.79 ERA
1.23 WHIP
21.9% K%
6.2% BB%

Going from AA to the MLB is tough, obviously. The baseball is different. But he doesn't throw super hard, right? We've seen plenty of guys dominate in the minors and then not have it in the Majors. The difference is that Kade was a first-round pick with a deep pitch mix and awesome command. So I feel fine about him for the future, but not so much as a top 100 pick after the lack of strikeouts we saw in his first seven starts.

Ian Seymour | ADP 118 | SP #36

Absurd price to me. The Rays baby these guys. Seymour popped off for a 29% K% and 6.5% BB% in a mixed role. He was used plenty as a reliever and rarely as a 5+ inning starter.

A 22% K-BB% is telling. He's good. But a top 40 SP? I don't see it right now.

Logan Webb | ADP 147 | SP #45

This will get corrected, I think. But yeah, I'd be drafting Logan Webb every single time at pick 150. What a steal this could be.

He was a 200+ IP, sub-3.50 ERA guy for years, and then one bad year sends him down the list like 100 picks.

It's a buy-low, sell-high game we're playing, isn't it? He'll turn 30 in a few weeks; age is not a problem.

That's one of the most surprising early prices I'm seeing, and I'm on the buy side.

Sandy Alcantara | ADP 151 | SP #46

Right behind Webb is Alcantara. Very similar pitchers. Lower strikeout rates, lots of ground balls, lots of innings. But Sandy's coming off a really good year. So that's strange.

214 IP
3.87 ERA
1.23 WHIP

I guess the balk point is this:

10.5% K-BB%
17.1% K%

In Sandy's prime, it was at least a 20% K%. I wouldn't value him way above this mark, but SP #46 feels very good to me coming off a year where he led the league in innings thrown by a mile.

Plus, with what we saw late... maybe he should even project for a few saves. Probably not, but don't forget what they experimented with late, using him and Eury Perez in relief a couple of days after a start. Instead of a bullpen day, they just let them go out and throw an inning of relief. There's basically zero chance they do that in the early months of the season, but who knows, man? Things change all of the time; there's an "unknown unknown" to the universe. Maybe the Marlins are onto something here. I wouldn't draft him counting on any of that, but it's interesting.

Emmet Sheehan | ADP 166 | SP #51

Okay I guess I won't have much Sheehan! We have no confidence he'll be in the rotation. I thought we'd be able to grab him at pick 250! But here he is well inside the top 200.

To remind you, the rotation right now would be:

Yamamoto
Snell
Glasnow
Sasaki?
Ohtani?
Sheehan / Wrobleski ?

So yeah, Sheehan has a real shot, but acquiring Skubal or some other ace bumps everybody down. Maybe Ohtani won't pitch... Snell and Glasnow will be on the IL for some time... but drafting any SP in the top 200 means you need 140+ innings for them. People are a little out of sorts on Sheehan.

Late Round Prices I Like

Just leans based on what I learned from the 2026 season. I'm only through like 15% of the team previews so far. But here are some "leans" after pick 200 I'm seeing.