Late Round Upside: Starting Pitchers
A quick data extract to find late round NFBC pitcher targets
I’ve had some moments with the post graphics, but that one sucks. I’ll admit it. The graphics are secondary to the content, though, so I’m not going to dwell on it.
I’m doing some Gladiator drafts over on the NFBC. It’s a great site for fantasy baseball, and you can draft pretty much year-round over there. I’m a big fan, and I’m actually working on a pseudo-partnership with them to get some fun stuff rolling.
But for now, we have to find some later-round targets that we like. It’s time to get going.
To get the ball rolling, I’m doing a quick data pull and comparing it with ADP. I’m using JA ERA to find the best options after pick 150. Read about JA ERA here if you’re unfamiliar.
You can see JA ERA and a ton of other stats on the Main MLB Dashboard. Find that link below the paywall here, after I give everybody a couple of names for free.
Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays
JA ERA: 2.48
ADP: 303
Jax got moved to the Rays at the deadline last year where he finished another elite season in the bullpen. And yes, he’s a reliever. I’m including him here because there’s a chance the Rays move him to the rotation next year. It’s speculative right now, and we won’t know if they’re actually considering this until the spring. But it makes a lot of sense. He threw four different pitches above 10% usage out of the bullpen. That’s rare to see. He threw six pitches total. Elite sweeper, elite changeup, strong fastball. It’s a pitch mix you can absolutely believe in as a starter.
The JA ERA landed at 2.48 with the sick-nastiness in that 29% K-BB% and 18.8% SwStr%. This dude might be too good to stay in the bullpen. I’m getting some shares now, because the price is going to skyrocket if there’s a whiff of him as a potential starter. And even if it doesn’t happen, he’ll get you some saves.
Garrett Whitlock, Boston Red Sox
JA ERA: 2.70
ADP: 438
This is another Jax situation, but way worse. There hasn’t even been any speculation about Whitlock getting back into the rotation, and he’s not in line for many saves if he stays in the bullpen with Aroldis Chapman still around.
So it’s probably not worth a shot. But after a fully healthy season coming out of the bullpen, is it crazy to think that Boston might try him out again in the rotation? They gave him plenty of shots prior to last year, so maybe after a successful here with his arm healthy, they could give it another shot. If he does enter the rotation, I’d immediately be calling him a must-own in fantasy leagues. The guy is extremely good.
Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox
JA ERA: 2.83
ADP: 206
One more free one since I gave you that probable dud in Whitlock. I wrote about Early recently in this piece. But that was behind the paywall, so I’ll summarize it again here.
The young lefty had a great season in the minors and got the call to the Majors late in the year. They even went so far as to give him a playoff series start, a testament to the confidence they had in him.
It was only 19 MLB innings, but the early signs were nice. A 17.3% SwStr%, a 35.6% Ball%, and a 49% GB%. He’s a lefty with elite extension, and that makes his fastball really tough.
He struck out 32% of hitters and walked just 9.7% of them in the minors (where walk rates are higher, mind you), and he’s been great at home run suppression his whole career (0.59 HR/9 in 225 innings).
This is another kid with a lot of pitches. He threw six different offerings in the Majors, with three of them above 20% usage. He’s not overly dependent on a single pitch and has confidence in a handful of them.
It’s hard to say that any first-year player truly has “floor”, but he has all the makings of a solid MLB starter. I think he and Crochet make a pretty nice 1-2 punch in the Red Sox rotation right out of the gate next year.