Skip to content
MLB Data Warehouse
Sign in Subscribe

2027 Team Previews: New York Mets

By Jon Anderson
2027 Team Previews: New York Mets
Published:
|
Share to X Share to Bluesky Share to Facebook Share to LinkedIn Share by email

What a disaster run the Mets are on. I guess we shouldn't be surprised at this point, but I didn't expect to be getting to them this early again. They went 74-88 and easily took last place in the NL East.

There were injuries that didn't help on the offensive side, so that stuff could and should go a bit better in the future. But the pitching staff still needs work. The Freddy Peralta thing might have been the most embarrassing development of the Mets season. He was an ace with the Brewers, and then pretty much an ace with the Rays at the end of the year and into the playoffs, and in the middle of that ace sandwich was this suck filling with the Mets.

The bright side is Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and a pretty nice young core of Nolan McLean, AJ Ewing, and Carson Benge. There are still a ton of names to know for fantasy leagues in 2027, so let's get into it.

Here's what it looks like right now:

The Mets change their roster year-over-year more than almost any other team. And maybe they're learning that isn't working, but I do expect it to look a good bit different by the time pitches are being thrown.

We'll focus on the guys we know will be in there.

Hitters

Juan Soto

Age: 28
Position: OF

We're nearing a decade of Juan Soto being in the bigs, and he's just now turning 28. And for all of the storylines about his attitude and stuff like that, he's been extremely good the whole time. Four straight seasons above a .900 OPS, a mostly clean health record, and at least a 5.6% HR% the last three seasons.

We don't really have to dig into guys like Juan Soto. We know who they are, they are well worth a first-round pick. It's just nitpicking about how many players should go ahead of them and how to adjust for league settings and that business.

This was his first time missing significant time to injury, which limited him to 27 homers. But the .275/.393/.515 slash was still fantastic, and his K% came down to a career best.

He might have been a little bit overpriced last year because of that 37-steal outlier season. That happened as he was chasing a 40/40 season. It was easy to see that he would come back down to his norm in steals. And that's what we saw.

His attempt rates by year:

The right projection for 2027 is 7-10%. Maybe he would have run a bit more if he weren't bothered by injury, but outside of 2025, he's been between six and 12 steals every year. So you should expect that range in the future.

He gets intentionally walked plenty. He hasn't been below a 16% BB% in his career. This was actually his lowest BB% since his rookie year. Which I kinda like. If you're playing in standard roto leagues, you don't really benefit from walks. So when he's up there at 20%, you're giving away a lot of HR and RBI opportunities. I don't think he's coming down below 15% until he's starting to get washed in his mid-30s.

His bat speed did hit a career low (only have been tracking that since 2023). Should we be worried about that or just explain it by the injuries?

I'm no practitioner of medicine, but would calf injuries really slow down a swing? Doctor AI Overview says YES:

While hitting a baseball or softball looks like an upper-body action, elite bat speed is actually generated from the ground up. The kinetic chain relies heavily on the lower body to transfer energy into the swing.

When you have consistently high bat speeds from age 23-27, and then a blip in an injury-ravished season, it's probably right to expect it to come back up to normal. And his home run rate didn't suffer anyways at 5.6% (6.0% was his best mark in that 2025 season).

Projection
Still to come

Rank
Juan Soto is very, very good and he's still well in his prime years. He could benefit from the Mets bulking up the lineup behind him a bit, but you can't really go wrong. He ranks higher in points/OBP leagues. We'll see where I end up having him among other first-round options, but he's clearly at the top of the list for what I have so far (moving Nick Kurtz to #2).

Francisco Lindor

Age: 33
Position: SS

Here we have some signs of age. Lindor's been around forever, but he's on pace to get some Hall of Fame consideration. I don't think he's locked that in yet, and it might be a fringe kind of thing. But he's hit 300 homers and has played 12 seasons now, with a few more to come.

It was arguably the worst season of his career:

But like Soto, a lot of was probably caused by a lack of health:

The hamate bone thing can zap power, and then he almost immediately had a calf strain after recovering from that. So I think we have to regress Lindor's performance base upward from what we saw in 2026.

He still managed 21 bombs in 105 games, but that was the only redeeming quality. His stolen base attempt rate fell from 19% to 5%, resulting in just three steals. A much lower .323 xwOBA also shows a lack of OOMPH, and he fell below a 10% Brl% for the second straight year.

What you might miss is the .242 BABIP he posted. He's been consistently around .280-.300 in his career. Some of this was explained by lower quality of contact, but there's some bad luck involved in a -50 in BABIP.

Some concern is warranted. He's at the age where you really start to wonder about that, especially in the speed stats. Will he just be a 10-15 steals guys now? Is the 30+ homer upside a thing of the past?

I think the projections will do a pretty good with Lindor. But I'm viewing him as a potential buy-low in the 3rd-5th round. He still hit for good angles and didn't fall very much in max EV. He's good at air pulling, and he's simply a very, very good baseball player who should age more gracefully.

But there's considerable downside if you're really using a third-round pick on him. I could see 24 homers, 10 steals, and a .250 batting average. That leaves you lacking, and the Mets offense isn't some juggernaut that will easily generate 200+ R+RBI for him.

We'll wait and see on the price, but I'm by no means off of Lindor for 2027.

Projection
Still to come

Rank
He's comped with Zach Neto right now as we populate these ranks. I'll take Neto pretty easily there. Neto is way younger and has more reliable power and speed. The batting average advantage goes to Lindor, but Lindor has been in the .260s even in his better years.

Carson Benge

Age: 24
Position: OF

The rookie made the team out of camp and rewarded that decision with a 20-22 campaign on a high .282 batting average.

The only other players to go 20-20 with a .280+ batting average:

That's a hard list to get on, and Benge did it out of the chute.

It was a slow start with a lull in June, but he finished with three straight .800+ OPS months and a very, very nice season for leagues of all types.

We breezed through Soto & Lindor as known commodities complicated by injury-marred data, but we need to dig deep into the next couple of guys.

Power
If there's a tool in question with Benge, this is it. He's gone for almost exactly a 3% HR% in all three professional seasons so far. It was mighty impressive that he repeated that in the Majors (in fact, he ticked it up from 2.9% to 3.1%). That's 20-homer consistency. But is there room for any growth, or is he a 20 to 25 homer guy?

The EV90s:

The swing:

It's not a beat-the-ball-into-the-ground swing, but he's up there more looking for line drives than fly balls.

And that's what we saw in the batted ball data.

High Sweet Spot%. Lots of line drives, not much air-pulling. He converted 15 of 33 barrels for homers (46%), which is about league average.

There's room for growth and development, but the 18-22 HR range seems right to me.

Speed
He ranked #45 in the league in speed to first base. So yes, he's fast. His 15% attempt rate was above the league average, but not among the elites in the game. The success rate came in at 81%, about league average as well.

From what we've seen so far, Benge is an easy 15+ steals guy. He did have a .346 OBP with a lower 7.6% BB%, so there's some potential for a lower OBP and fewer opportunities next year. I'm not seeing a real 30+ steal guy here, but he's swiped 20+ in two straight years now (including the minors in 2025 where he played 116 games), so he should easily get to 20+ in a healthy season.

Plate Discipline
This is a strength for him, but again, it's not elite stuff.

So yeah, he's about a league-average player.

What I'd worry most about is the 40% Sweet Spot% regressing a bit and the .341 BABIP not repeating. A .320 BABIP drops the batting average down below .270.

Splits

You want to see some success against lefties, which we do here. A .279/.347/.419 slash without the platoon advantage is a great sign that he'll be an everyday player and handle lefties just fine.

Final Thoughts
All of that analysis is assuming that he doesn't improve this winter. Guys often do improve in year two, but sometimes they get worse as the league adjusts. Benge is so solid across the board that I don't think he's much more likely to improve rather than decline. There are no holes in game. There are no elite tools, either, but you should always feel better about a repeat season coming from a rookie who didn't have any trouble with anything in particular.

Projection
I'm thinking 23-25 homers, 20-25 steals, and a .265-.275 batting average. He'll also hit in the meat of the Mets order. I don't think you can go too wrong drafting Benge in year two. The one thing I'll say is that he doesn't seem to have massive 30-30 upside like maybe some people will assume after seeing his successful rookie years.

Rank
He's going ahead of Henry Bolte. Two promising youngsters. Benge seems way safer to me, while Bolte has the much higher HR+SB ceiling. But I like to keep it safe, so I'll throw Benge in there one slot ahead.

Subscribe today to get the full post and all of the other non-stop baseball content coming your way.

AJ Ewing

Age: 22
Position: OF

A Ewing in NYC! Good history of success in pro sports for that surname, amirite?

Ewing hit .252/.324/.376 with 11 homers and 25 steals in 120 games. We knew that the speed was the carrying tool, and he showed it. A 26% attempt% and a 76% Success%. The 76% mark is poor, but I don't think they're going to slow him down because of it, and there's plenty of room for that to come up so he can cruise past 30 steals in a full year.

Unlike Benge, he does have some holes.

Power
This is one of the questions. He hit five homers in 71 games in 2024, three homers in 124 games in 2025, and then two homers in 30 games in the minors in 2026. Those are sub-2% HR% in the minors, but then he went for 2.2% in the Majors.

His bat speed is not good. His EVs were better (104.1 EV90). So that's a bit weird, isn't it? His hardest hits on average were the fly balls, which is a good thing. But just a 7.5% Brl% and 11% Air Pull%. I'm not really sure how he managed 11 homers.

He hits the ball on the ground a good bit at 46%. So he's really not getting the ball into the air very much, and the bat speed makes me wonder if he can do another 104 EV90 on fly balls.

There's a real downside in power. But you saw the age - this kid debuted last year at 21. Lots of room for power to develop.

Plate Discipline
Average aggression at the plate: 46% Swing5, 27% Chase%. So that's fine. I think he could benefit from swinging a bit more. His Z-contact% was strong at 84.5%, and 75.4% overall on the contact rate.

But he struck out at a 25.5% clip. That Zone-Contact% and K% don't really match up. I think he was taking a few too many strikes and getting himself behind.

I'd expect some growth on the K% next year. Maybe 22-24%. I'm encouraged by that zone contact rate.

The launch angle stuff was fine. Nothing special, but not a guy who pitchers had pounding the ball into the ground or way up in the air for popups.

Final Thoughts
Draft him for 30+ steals; view anything else as a bonus. He'll need raw power growth to get to 15+ homers, I think. I'm a bit worried about that. But I think he could end up dropping the K% to 20-22% and using that speed to pile up another .320+ BABIP.

The upside is 15 bombs, 35 steals, and a .260 batting average. The downside is mostly on the home run front. I could see an 8-12 homer season. I think the batting average has a floor of .240 and an upside to .275 if things come together. That's a wide range, but this isn't a young kid I think is at risk of a 30% K% and a .220 AVG. That's the point.

Rank
I'm well behind Benge/Bolte on him. I think he has a good ceiling, maybe 40+ steals and a .270 average with double-digit homers. But there's considerable downside as well with some of the lack of tools. I've thrown him in behind McCarthy/Soderstrom anda head of Trout/Butler among outfielders.

Bo Bichette

Age: 29
Position: 3B

The Mets have a habit of not getting their money's worth. They gave Bichette the big contract, played him at third base, and only squeezed a .260/.312/.390 line out of him.

His batting average was .313 in 2025, so he fell 53 points on that in year one with the Mets. 18 homers last year, 18 homers in 2025. He hasn't cleared 20 homers in 2023, and he hit a new career-low with two steals.

Power
It has really only been there in one year when they were playing in the minor league parks in 2021. The bat speed is really poor; the EVs follow (103 EV90 on fly balls). Just a 6.4% Brl%. It's not nothing in the power. He's hit 36 bombs the last two years, but he's not looking like he has 25-homer potential.

Speed
This has gone away. Just 2% attempt rate, just six steals in the last two years. He swiped 25 bags in 2021, and since then he has had no more than 13. And a max of five in his last four years. So he's a low-power third baseman who doesn't steal bags.

Plate Discipline
Still a good K% at 18%, but up from 14.5% the previous year. He swings a lot and doesn't walk, so he's a lower OBP guy when a ton of base knocks aren't falling in. He had a .277 OBP in 2024, .358 in 2025, and .312 this year. So he's below-average in that.

The best tool is usually the base hits and batting average. He's a line drive hitter, but he fell off a bit in that in 2026 with a 39% Sweet Spot% and 27% LD%. Those are good, but he almost has to lead the league in this stuff to be a valuable fantasy bat.

Final Thoughts
There's really not much to like. The best thing he does, I guess, is play every day and knock some base hits around the park. So he can get to decent marks in R+HR, he has a 15-homer floor and probably at least a .260 batting average (.280 xBA last year, which is important to note since it was 20 points ahead of his actual).

Projection
Probably 18 homers, .270 average, 3 steals?

Rank
I haven't ranked many 3Bs yet. He's going ahead of Kyle Karros and behind Casey Schmitt.

Francisco Alvarez

Age: 25
Pos: C

Alvarez debuted in 2022 (for five games), so it's been a while waiting for the former #1 prospect to turn into an MLB All-Star. He hasn't done it. But he also hasn't stayed healthy. He played 113 games this year, the most since 2023. But he hit .233/.311/.399 with 16 homers and a career-high 31% K%.

I've been an Alvarez drafter. He has real power, so I've been taking some shots on him every year, hoping that he can improve a little bit and stay healthy enough to get to the 30-homer season. But I'm starting to doubt it'll ever happen.

He does have a near 4.0% HR% the last two years (4.0% in 2025, 3.8% in 2026). That's a decent rate, but he hasn't been able to stay on the field. His playing time max is capped by being a catcher. You're looking at 130 games max, I think, even if he does avoid the IL. So that's like a 20-homer pace. He hit 25 back in 2023 in 122 games.

Power
It's there. 107.8 EV90, 106.7 on fly balls, 15.4% Brl%, but a higher than you'd want 48% GB% and lower 14% Air Pull%.

So the bat speed is there, but the bat control and swing path and stuff aren't. That holds him down.

This is bad, because power is his only good tool. And we immediately see problems with that. I'm thinking he's a 25-homer guy max. That's harder to find at catcher than other spots, but it's not a stat alone that gets him into 12-team league consideration.

Speed
Obviously not there. Three career steals, none since 2024.

Discipline
31% K%, 9.3% BB% last year. He has a lower-than-average swing rate at 45%, so he's not up there swinging wildly and chasing stuff all the time (although his chase rate is high for his swing rate at 32%). His problem is contact (77% Zone Contact%).

His average last year was .233 with a .229 xBA. The walks keep him above a .300 OBP, but not much above.

It's worth noting that his .339 OBP was pretty good back in 2025. That was the outlier of his career, but he has two straight years with a BB% above 9%, so he can get on base more than he did last year. The K% should also improve just based on regression toward his career mean.

Final Thoughts
Not many catchers hit the ball as hard as Alvarez, but that's really the only positive spin we can put on it.

Projection
306 AB, 47 R, 19 HR, 49 RBI, 1 SB, .257/.334/.495

This is the early projection. And I think it's way too favorable. 19 homers in 306 ABs, that's not happening. A .257 average? I don't think so. My model overestimates Alvarez, and I need to go check on why that is and make some tweaks.

Rank
I haven't ranked a ton of catchers so far. But he's at the bottom of the list of the guys I've gotten. I think he's a top 20 catcher in the fantasy game, and maybe he could power his way into the top 15. But there are too many problems and too rough a history at this point to be interested.

Brett Baty

Age: 27
Pos: 1B/2B/3B/OF

That position eligibility! The Mets have given Baty plenty of chances to play. He has been versatile and learned different positions, but the bat isn't playing to this point.

He played a bunch this year with 143 games, helped by filling in all over the field. But come on, Brett! .236/.309/.371? I thought this was his year to really get some regular reps and excel in the Majors.

But the Mets can't have good players.

Power
He swings hard and has a decent swing for power. The EVs weren't elite, but they were more than enough for us to think he can be a 20+ homer guy. 106.7 EV90 overall, 105.7 on fly balls, a 10.3% Brl%. But just a 13.7% Air Pull% and 29% FB%. More line drives than fly balls and few pulls. So that's what limiting his power production.

It's nice to have the bat speed he has, though. One thing that really didn't go his way was a 9.6% HR/FB. He was at 22.5% the year prior. So he should be around 12% next year, and that could help him hit a few more homers.

Speed
Five steals this year on a 5% attempt rate. He'll get one a month, but it's not a big part os hif game. He has 15 career steals on a 4.6% attempt rate. So you're hoping for 5-10 steals. That would be a good result.

Discipline
It's really not all bad here. His Zone Contact% is 81%, which is far from elite, but it's fine for a guy with power. His K% bloated to a career high, but still stayed below 27%. And he walked a bit at 9.3%.

He swings 49% of the time and chases 29% of the time. That's a fine combo. His "Swing Decision" mark was 71%, meaning that 71% of his swings were at pitches in the zone. That's better than average.

So it's good news there. He hit just .236; his xBA was only slightly above that.

What didn't help him was the 91 PAs against lefties where he hit .175/.275/.225. He can't hit lefties, so he's going to be a platoon guy at best.

Or maybe he won't even start. He hasn't earned it, and the Mets are a team that adds a lot of players each winter. So it's thin for Baty.

Final Thoughts
I still don't want to give up on the guy. Maybe he just needs a chance of scenery. At best, he's a 25-homer pace guy who sits against lefties. Not a guy for 12-teamers.

Projection
334 AB, 43 R, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 5 SB, .230/.301/.402

Rank
Behind Denzer Guzman... that hurts. Baty was one of my guys coming up. I still do think the tools are there for him to become a decent player, but I'm not calling him a breakout candidate anymore.

Jared Young

Age: 31
Pos: 1B

Young got to play a good bit (103 games) because Jorge Polanco sucked so bad. And Young was one of their better hitters.

He hit .266/.330/.429 with nine homers in those 103 games. Look at the age, though. He's been a AAAA guy for his career, but maybe they'll give him the first base job to start the year. I doubt it, but it could happen.

The xStats:

So that makes him about a league-average hitter, but a league-average hitter at 31 who never pushed for a job prior to this. Maybe he would have if Pete Alonso weren't there before.

Power
Mediocre bat speed but a 105.6 EV90 on fly balls. He has been a power hitter in AAA. He didn't have a very good 7.7% Brl% last year, but he played to a 15+ homer pace with a .266 AVG.

So he was fine. He helped them out; he didn't embarrass himself.

Speed
Three steals last year on a 5% attempt rate. Not part of his game.

Discipline
A very nice 18% K% in 2026 after striking out a ton in limited time in the Majors before this. 82% Zone Contact%, 47% Swing%, 76% Contact% overall. So it's about league-average stuff here.

I don't think he's an 18% K% guy in the future, but maybe he's 22%-24%.

Final Thoughts
I don't want to spend a ton of time on guys I don't think have a chance to play 120+ games next year. And I don't it with Young. What would be the point of that for the Mets? Unless they're just punting 2027 and using him as a guy who won't kill them at first base, I don't know why they wouldn't try some other things.

Rank
Down there by Nolan Schanuel at 1B

Jorge Polanco

Age: 33
Pos: 1B

Probably the worst thing the Mets did in 2026 was letting Alonso go and then replacing him with Polanco.

Injuries were a big problem, he played just 37 games. So he didn't have enough reps to judge him on, but it was awful.

A .189 xBA, a .234 xwOBA, a 25% K%. Maybe he was just hurt.

But Jorge Polanco has been bad every year by 2025 in the contract year with the Mariners. It was foolish to think he'd repeat that in 2026, and the Mets got what they deserved.

At the same time, though, he's one year removed from a 26-homer season. The contract was two years for $40 million. Maybe the Mets will just bail; there's no guarantee that Polanco will be a starter, but he's making good money, so I think they'll give him another look right away.

Maybe he can bounce back to a 20-homer pace with a .240 average, but more likely, I think, he's just not going to do it.

Projection
He's really tough to project. We can't plan on 100+ games from him since he's been hurt so much and because the Mets just might not want to play him. And we have a small sample of stuff to use from 2026 after the weird breakout in 2025. I have no idea. But I know he's well outside of the top 400 for 2027 drafts.

Rank
Hard to do this too because we don't know if he'll have a starting job, but it's easy to just not draft the guy.

Even if everything goes his way. Let's think about that. Maybe he's their guy, maybe he stays healthy, maybe he gets back to closer to his career average production. That's like a .240 average with 15 homers and four steals. So if everything hits, you're not going to be kicking yourself for not drafting him. So just don't draft him, right?

Marcus Semien

Age: 36
Pos: 2B

Okay it's over! Give the 2B job to Bretty Baty and see if he can make it work. You're not getting anything from 36-year-old Marcus Semien.

He's owed $26 million in 2027 and $20 million in 2028, so he's not going completely away. He'll be in the lineup at least initially.

He hit .215. But I guess I should credit his 15 homers and ten steals. He did more of that than other guys in 139 games. But that's two straight years of 15-10 (15-11 in 2025), and he's not good enough to play 150+ games every year like he used to.

Projection
340 AB, 45 R, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 5 SB, .239/.306/.383

Rank
Ahead of Jorge Polanco and Young.

Mark Vientos

Age: 27
Pos: 1B

They needed to trade him a few years ago. He hasn't stuck at 3B defensively, so he's been a DH and 1B who mainly plays against left-handed pitching.

He was hurt last year, and that didn't help his playing time.

He has some power, but nothing special (104.5 EV90, 9.7% Brl%). The launch angles are bad; the K% is in the mid-20s. He doesn't pull it in the air and rarely hits line drives.

It doesn't seem like he's a very good hitter, and I guess Mets fans have known that for years.

He hits lefties decently well (.252/.296/.513), but it's not like he's a guy you MUST get into the lineup there. That's not a skill like what Randal Grichuk and Coby Mayo can do where you deserve a roster spot just for that.

I'm not seeing much of a future for Vientos, and there's no way he can hang for fantasy leagues since he can't hit righties and doesn't have any path to a starting job besides multiple injuries.

Rank
End of the list for now

Pitchers

Nolan McLean

Age: 25

McLean was a bright spot for the Mets. 31 starts, 179.2 innings, 3.16 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP. Very solid season.

We like him for the future. He'll be ranked pretty high, probably in the top 20. But he's worth taking a look at, because he is a unique pitcher.

His K-BB% was just 16.6%. We want 20%+ from our aces, and McLean wasn't there.

His rookie year: 48 IP, 2.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 30.3% K%, 8.5% BB%, 22% K-BB%

So his SIERA was .304 in 2025 and 3.80 in 2026. The K% came down, as we knew would happen. I was a little worried about it falling to 23-25%, but he did get to 26%, which is a fine number, although it's not super comfortable in a vacuum along with this 9.4% BB%.

If you're drafting strictly on SIERA and K-BB%, you won't ever end up with McLean. But there's more to pitching and more to McLean than that. I hate to admit it, but there is a little bit more than K-BB%.

CALLED STRIKES

This is the way that McLean beats his SwStr%, which was again very low at 10.5%. You usually get a sub-20% K% with this kind of swinging strike. So it can look like some luck, but we've seen that from McLean for a year and a half now and when you watch him pitch, you kinda get it.

Here's the called strike vs. swinging strike plot from 2026 (30 starts minimum to try to see as many of the names as we can):

McLean's the furthest right dot there. Almost a 19% Called Strike% while the league average is around 16%. Hitters often just can't get swings off against him. The movement has a lot to do with that, but he also must have really strong deception and pitch tunneling.

He threw five pitches more than 10% of the time and seven in total. The Strike% on the sinker is good, the number on the four-seamer was very good. And he lands the curveball for strikes at a high rate as well. So he gets strikes with his three main pitches.

McLean also has the sinker + four-seamer + cutter trio we like to see. There were 55 starters that threw all three of those at least 10% of the time. It's not the most impressive list of pitchers. Here's that list, not prettied up. Just giving you the Python script output because it makes me feel good:

A lot of these guys, like Nick Martinez, are here because they don't have a singular elite fastball. Jacob Misiorowski, for example, doesn't need to bother with a sinker because his four-seamer is so good. So it's something that most guys do because they need to mix it up and keep guys off balance because they don't have the upper-level stuff to get it done on a shorter list of pitches.

But McLean has the good stuff plus this deep pitch mix, and that raises his floor quite a bit. He can lean on different pitches on days when he doesn't have a pitch or two or the command isn't on.

So that's all really good for McLean.

I think the strikeout rate of 26% is about right. The 35% sinker usage with a 5.3% SwStr% and 48% Strike% I think will keep him well short of 30%. He's never been super consistent, so you'll have bad starts and bad stretches from him as we saw this year.

The sinker works to keep the home runs down. He posted a 46% GB% this year and a 54% mark on that most-thrown pitch. His curveball also gets the ball on the ground. So he's looking to get ahead with the sinker and happy to take a ground ball early in the count. The good news is that he has the goods to put guys away with the four-seamer, curveball, and some of the other lesser used pitches when he's ahead.

He allowed just a .293 xwOBA and .331 SLG this year. There was some luck involved, I think:

I could see him bumping up to a .290 BABIP, 15% HR/FB, and 22% RISP H% (that's like Strand Rate), and that could send the ERA up a bit. But with the movement and the ground balls, I think he'll be a "lucky" pitcher most years by these numbers. This stuff isn't raw luck, remember that, and none of these numbers were completely unrepeatable.

The other point of good news is the health. He threw 162 innings in 2025 between MiLB and MLB and got to 180 in 2026.

McLean checks a lot of the boxes. The only criticism is that he's a mid-20s K% guy while a lot of the other aces have upside for 30%+. But he makes up for that in other ways, you just might not have the gaudy strikeout total in the future.

Final Thoughts
I was a doubter of McLean early on, but I've realized my mistakes, and he's done it for long enough for me to be a believer. I'm in on the guy.

Rank
It's between him and Detmers for #1. I feel a lot safer with McLean, but I think Detmers brings more of a ceiling if he can repeat a lot of what he did last year, especially late. So I'm throwing McLean in at #2, but I could see that changing.

Christian Scott

Age: 27

Scott as the Mets SP2 shows you their problem. If they want to compete in 2027, they need to upgrade the rotation. Not to take too much away from Scott, because I do think he's decent, but he shouldn't be an SP2 on a team that wants to make some noise.

He missed 2025 after surgery but got back to throw 110 big league innings in 2026. The ERA wasn't anything special (3.85), and the WHIP wasn't what you want either, but both numbers were fine, and the K% was really enticing at 28%.

So the 3.73 ERA is decent. He's a borderline 12-team guy out of the gate, and I think this is a guy getting better and better, and you really like that he's set up for a normal, healthy offseason here.

We like the 18.4% K-BB%. The thing that could hurt him is the homers and fly balls. He gave up a 30% FB%, but just a 6.3% Brl%. If that Brl% comes up to 8% (which is likely), he's going to be a guy with a higher HR/9. But let's dive into the pitch mix:

The four-seamer was really strong in 2026. A 13.9% SwStr%, which is elite for a four-seamer, and a super high 54% Strike% on it. Plus a .314 xwOBA. That was really good. But can it stay really good? It was 927 pitches, so that's a good sample. The Stuff+ at 98 gives you some doubt, and the velo isn't anything special in today's context.

The sweeper is very good as well, and he throws a cutter as well with decent velo around 90.

You can see that he was kinda tinkering with a fourth pitch. Sub-5% usage on the splitter, cutter, slider, and sinker. But he was messing around. The pitches are there. Maybe he can develop one or two and even things out and not have to throw the four-seamer 47% of the time. That would help if the four-seam performance does regress.

He doesn't have a changeup, and the splitter is barely used; that opens up some platoon concerns. Lefties often have success against these types of righties. But his splits from 2026 calm your worries:

He throws a lot more cutters against lefties, and that helped him throw more strikes since he wasn't so dependent on the sweeper which is harder to locate.

And his SwStr% was the same high number against both sides. There's just a ton to like with Scott.

Final Thoughts
I guess the worry is that maybe these good numbers won't stick. He's not the greatest STUFF guy in the world, and he had trouble having success deep into the game. He was rarely pitching into the sixth, but that could have had to do with him just getting back from major surgery.

I'm not saying that Scott has SP1-SP2 upside, but he looks good in all of the things I typically look for. Strong K-BB%, potentially deep pitch mix good splits, coming off a healthy season.

I'd be happy betting on Scott as an SP4-SP5 pick on fantasy teams. Maybe it won't work, but I think the upside beats out the downside, and that's kinda what you're looking for with your mid/late round SP selections. Very interested to see where his ADP lands.

Rank
He's around Walbert Urena / Gage Jump for me. I'm putting him ahead of those two. He has the strikeouts that Urena doesn't; he doesn't have the park problems that Jump has. So it's pretty clear that he's my new #4 behind Detmers, McLean, and Webb.

Jonah Tong

Age: 23

Tong was elite in the minors in 2025. A 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 40.5% K%, and 10.6% BB%. That got him on the map. But it hasn't been good so far in the Majors:

Very small sample size, though. So we need to look at the pitch mix and do some guessing.

He has this crazy over-the-top delivery. That fooled minor league hitters, but it's a lot tougher to fool big leaguers. Overall, though, a nice 13.8% SwStr% on the pitch. The bad news is the 39% Ball% and 35% FB%. He's a guy that I think will give up plenty of homers on the four-seamer. The Stuff+ doesn't like the fastball at all, but the unique delivery could help him beat those models, I think. There aren't a lot of pitches coming out of that slot for the models to compare with.

His changeup and cutter both got whiffs. Four total pitches, the ability to get swings and misses on all of them, and low xwOBAs overall.

It was a positive sign from Tong late in the year when he got back in there, at least under the hood.

Tough guy to project and rank. We haven't seen enough of him to know. The data really isn't helping us much with Tong. I'm happy to hear what other people think about him after taking a deeper dive into his pitch mix.

I think there's a path to him being pretty good. I like a four-seam + changeup + cutter mix, and I was really encouraged by the 14.8% SwStr% we saw last year.

The command has to improve and he needs to be able to use that changeup a little more, I think. His fastball with the mid-90s velo and lack of command could turn into a lot of homers.

But he's young, the Mets will be working with him, and the range of outcomes is wide.

I wish I could get a better feel on him, but I can't right now.

Rank
For right now, he's an easy rank. It's easy to put him in over Dollander/Ryan Johnson/etc. The guy he's around right now is Landen Roupp. The difference is that I know Roupp can't be super good. So he's about Roupp.

The next guy there is Gage Jump. I like Jump's stuff better, but the park makes a big difference. That's a close one. I'll leave Jump ahead of him for now, so I'm putting Tong at #7.

Zac Thorton

Age: 25

Now it's real ugly. Thornton did okay in 2026 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 84.1 innings. But he wasn't a great prospect for them and it seemed like he got in the rotation out of necessity last year.

His K% in AAA was 23%, so he's not a power pitcher or someone who profiles to get many strikeouts. He did throw strikes, though, with a 33% Ball% in th Majors.

So he's a decent pitch-to-contact guy. Just an 8.7% SwStr%, which is the biggest problem, but lots of different pitches in the zone.

He gave up 13 homers in his short time in the bigs for a 1.5 HR/9. That's a concern, but it's something that should probably regress down a bit.

Thornton has the kitchen sink approach, which is good for a low-stuff guy:

Low velos, but a lot of different shapes and movement profiles coming at hitters. He didn't get over an 18% K% to either side of the plate, but he rarely walks anybody with a 4% BB% to righties and a 6% mark to lefties.

He's a left-handed pitcher, if you didn't know, so that can help. He limited lefties to a .292 xwOBA and just three homers. But righties hit him pretty hard and got a ton of balls into the air.

I'm not seeing much of anything to like about Thornton. I like the command and the depth of the mix, but I think he's just too low in the Stuff department to make any waves. More of just an SP4-SP5 in real life, a sort of rotational depth guy.

Rank
The comp I have in the ranks right now is Yusei Kikuchi. They seem very similar. I'll give it to Thornton because of the age.

Sean Manaea

Age: 34

If the roster stays mostly what it is right now, Manaea will have to be in the rotation. He finished the year in that role and threw 150.2 innings last year. But a 4.96 ERA, 1.31 WHIP... it wasn't good.

He threw just 60.2 innings in 2025 after the big season in 2024 with 181.2 innings and a 3.47 ERA. Ideally, they'd use him as a reliever, but they don't really have that option for right now.

One more year on the deal, but I don't think Manaea sees a big-money contract in his future at this age.

The one thing we should say is that he was a lot better than a 4.78 ERA last year. The SIERA was 3.92, the K-BB% was 15.3%. He just didn't strand runners and gave up a .310 BABIP.

There's a chance Manaea gets to 150+ innings against and a sub-four ERA. I don't think it's likely, but it's possible.

He lands the four-seamer for a ton of strikes, but none of the other pitches work very well. It seems like we get a completely different version of Manaea every year, it's a very, very thin path to any fantasy relevance. I think he'll just be a streamer again next year, and I think he'll find his way back into the bullpen or onto the IL again. He's not someone to consider in even 15-team leagues, but I'll rank him since he could be their SP4 come Opening Week, and he wasn't completely terrible as a starter last year.

Rank
Behind Grayson Rodriguez.

Kodai Senga

Age: 34

We don't even know if Senga will be in the rotation. He's 34 now and they moved him to the bullpen in the second half last year. He's been hurt a lot, and just not good as a starter.

The command is a huge problem. An 11.8% BB% last year to bloat the WHIP to 1.32. And the BB% was almost 15% in the first half as a starter.

The fastball velo is low and the command is bad. It got hit really hard. He throws six different pitches, but the forkball is really the only good one. It makes a lot of sense to just leave him as a reliever. There's no long-term staying power at his age, and I just don't think it'll ever work as a starter for Senga. So I'd expect him to be a reliever, but I'd understand if the Mets want to give him one more chance in the rotation since they have so little depth.

I'll throw him in at the end of the list, because I don't expect him to even matter (except maybe as a high-leverage reliever) next year.

Updated SP Ranks

You can stay up to date with the ranks here. But I'll give you where the list is at here:

  1. Reid Detmers
  2. Nolan McLean
  3. Logan Webb
  4. Christian Scott
  5. Walbert Urena
  6. Gage Jump
  7. Jonah Tong
  8. Landen Roupp
  9. Chase Dollander
  10. Ryan Johnson
  11. Zac Thornton
  12. Yusei Kikuchi
  13. Luis Severino
  14. G Rodriguez
  15. Sean Manaea
  16. JT Ginn
  17. Gabriel Hughes
  18. Mason Adams
  19. Jacob Lopez
  20. Kodai Senga

Prospects to Know

Not an exciting farm system, but that's not how they play the game.

If they don't build the roster back up through trades and free agency, we will see them dipping into the farm for some help. They have plenty of guys knocking on the door, but only two prospects in our current top 150

2027 Prospect Preview Pod: Mets
View each team's top 30 prospect list as they come out here. Owen Hurd (@OwenFBB) joins Tim and Jon to walk through the top 20 prospects for the Mets.
MLB Data WarehouseJon Anderson

Jon Anderson

All articles
Tags: 2027 Team Previews

More in 2027 Team Previews

See all

More from Jon Anderson

See all