Let's jump back into another week of NFL action!
Implied Totals
Broncos vs. Panthers
The Broncos go to Carolina with their 6-2 record after a big win against the Chiefs. The Panthers are heading in the wrong direction after two bad losses. The offense doesn't look so good right now, and they face a tough defense in Denver as they try to get it right.
I want to look at the positional matchup data for all of these games.
RBs vs. the Panthers have been very profitable.
I'm not seeing much in this game. The Panthers offense isn't trustworthy in this spot, and the 43.5-point total doesn't inspire much. The one angle might be the Broncos' running game, as the Panthers have been brutalized on the ground, allowing 4.8 yards per carry this year.
Quarterbacks
Bo Nix ($5,400) is cheap, and he's put up two pretty good scores in a row (26 and 19 points). But overall, he hasn't played very well with just 5.9 yards per attempt. The big game two weeks ago was helped by two big plays. The Panthers are a fine defense to go against, but Nix hasn't shown us anywhere near enough to get us interested.
Bryce Young ($5,500) went for 7.7 YPA in in his first five games with an 11:2 TD:INT. The last two games, it's 5.5 YPA and a 2:3 TD:INT. This is not the spot to take a shot on a bounce-back against the Broncos.
Running Backs
The Broncos have RJ Harvey on IR, opening things up for the young guy Jonah Coleman ($5,300). Last week in that first game without Harvey:
Good sign for Coleman, playing 68% of the snaps and more than doubling up JK Dobbins in carries, and taking five of the six backfield targets. Dobbins looked pretty washed with just 3.3 yards per carry, so it might be Coleman shouldering the load until Harvey gets back. Coleman is the natural fill-in for Harvey in the pass game, and it's really enticing to see him out-rushing Dobbins like he has the last two weeks as well. So yeah, Coleman is firmly in play at $5,300. It's a great, great spot for him and a price that will be on the rise. We find a pristine play right off the bat!
Chuba Hubbard ($6,500) finds himself at a season-high price, but he's earned it. 4.5 yards per carry this year, 26 targets out of the backfield, and really dominating the usage since they lost Brooks early in the year. I'm not sure it's the right spot to pay this price with this total and this matchup. The Broncos are more beatable with the run (4.5 yards per carry) than with the pass. So I think we'll get a healthy supply of Hubbard. I don't think the Broncos are an offense that can build a huge lead. I think Hubbard is fine, and certainly a strong season-long play, but I'm guessing there will be many better options than him this week for DFS.
Pass Catchers
The pass game for the Broncos has been really rough. There are no injuries to react to this week, so for cash, it's an easy attack to fade.
On the Panthers side, it's the Tet + Coker show. They see around half of the targets and have similar stats. The last three games:
The Broncos are tough to beat through the air, and Young hasn't played well. So with the prices being what they are (Tet is $6,900, Coker is $6,200), they are far from optimal. But I could see playing Coker with Coleman in a tourney. Maybe McMillan gets taken away by Patrick Surtain and that pushes the points to Coker's side. I don't hate that.
Recap
Broncos Side: Jonah Coleman
Panthers Side: Nobody for cash, Hubbard for low-ownership, Coker for tourneys
Cowboys vs. Colts
The Colts are going to be getting worse this week. They're probably the worst team in the league, and the Jaguars absolutely sheered them last week. The Cowboys defense has big problems, but I think they can probably do enough against Daniel Jones and whatever rag-tag group of players the Colts have on the roster come Sunday for this not to be competitive.
But maybe that's giving the Cowboys defense a little too much credit. I don't know. They've given up 5.7 yards per play, 7.5 yards per pass attempt, and 5.0 yards per rush.
Lots of green on the matchups:
This could end up being a pretty nice game for tourneys. The Colts will have some big values if they make more trades. Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs are both in the trade winds. You'd be betting on a Colts "minor league" offense to score points to get the Cowboys into a throw-heavy game, but it could happen. I don't see the ownership being super high, so it's an angle to play.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott ($6,500) was a strong cash play last week at home against the Cardinals. Less so this week with the +$200 on the price and the blowout potential. It is striking that it's only a 6.5-point spread, but that could go up if Taylor and others get traded.
He's certainly a play in game stacks. You could take Dak to Lamb and some cheap Colts pieces to bet on the game being somewhat competitive. For cash, I can't go to Dak.
Daniel Jones ($4,700) is the starter again, but he could lose his job at any moment. Maybe they'll want to see what they have in Riley Leonard or something as they punt the rest of this season. So there's bench risk with Jones, and he's been so bad even with the NFL weapons he's had but might not have this week. Can't go there in any circumstance, I don't think.
Running Backs
It's certainly a Javonte Williams ($7,300) week. 72 carries the last four weeks, nobody is in the RB room to take work from him, and the Cowboys imply for a bunch of points. The price is still tough to click on, but it's another juiced-up spot for Williams. Fantastic bet for a touchdown or two. The ceiling is brought down by his lack of pass game involvement, but you have to consider Javonte in this particular spot.
If JT gets traded, Seth McGowan ($5,000) would be interesting. He's seen 16 carries the last two weeks (averaging 4.7 yards per carry). So if he's the starter, he's got 15+ carry upside with good efficiency. The pass game role would increase if Taylor is out, but they haven't used him much in that role so far with just five routes run the last two weeks. So there's plenty of room for him to fail even if he's the RB1. Maybe the Colts just won't score points, and he looks like a pretty touchdown-dependent back to me.
Pass Catchers
CeeDee Lamb ($8,300), George Pickens ($6,300), and Ryan Flournoy ($4,800) take almost all of the work through the air. It's definitely not a cash spot since we have so little faith in the Colts offense to push the Cowboys. But it's the same angle as the Dak stuff - maybe the Cowboys defense screws up badly again and the game is competitive. The Cowboys shouldn't have trouble with pass-game efficiency, so there's a tourney angle on Lamb and Pickens. They're certainly not going to be highly owned.
If Downs gets traded, we've got Keenan Allen ($4,900) in play. He has a 21% target share the last two games with 10-98-0 in those two games. There's still not much ceiling, but the Colts will be throwing, and he'll be the main target in that case.
Tyler Warren ($4,600) isn't comfortably priced. With the season he's had, he should probably be $4,000. He ran 28 routes last week with an elite 36% TPRR, but another low ADoT (5.1 yards). I could see him having a nice game, it's certainly a nice matchup, and they'll have to throw him the ball a bunch the rest of the year with this stuff getting really thin. But $4,600 for Warren as a tight end isn't doing it for me.
Recap
Cowboys: Javonte for cash, exposure to Dak + Lamb through game stacks
Colts: Keenan, McGowan if trades happen
Lions vs. Dolphins
The Lions just do not have to play in cold weather ever. They go to Miami for a road game, and they're near the top of the board in implied points once again.
Miami doesn't have the worst defense in the league by the numbers, but they're no match for the Lions, I don't think. They've allowed 5.6 yards per play, 8.2 per pass, and 3.8 per carry. They've been able to stop the run, but this is a big test against Gibbs, who gets a ton of his points from receptions anyways.
You want to play pass games against the Lions, but do you want to play this one?
Quarterbacks
We like Jared Goff ($6,600) a lot more at home in potential shootouts. That's not the case here. That said, the Dolphins get crushed by pass games, and their offense might be able to score some points against a poor Lions defense. So I don't think it's crazy, but it doesn't feel right to me. Goff's ceiling comes from those crazy shootout games, so clicking him is a bet that Malik Willis ($5,100) is able to keep pace.
Willis can run, but it doesn't always go that way. Just one attempt last week for two yards against the Patriots. It's a spot where he should get 40+ rush attempts. We assume the Lions put points on the board and the Dolphins have to play quick. Still, though, he's gone over 50 rushing yards just twice. That's tough to take for DFS. The passing stuff for him has looked better. 556 yards and five touchdowns the last three games with a positive EPA. I'm not opposed to Willis in tourneys, I think it could end up being pretty nice. I think he'll project decently well for the price.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs ($10,000) has reached five figures. We'd like it a bit more at home, but he's still obviously going to be the top projection on the board. It's tough to spend 20% of your salary on one player, but it makes sense to go there with Gibbs in a game the Lions need to win. Even last week, in the nut-low matchup, Gibbs scored 28 points.
Ollie Gordon ($5,600) has played well. He's an efficient runner, but this is by no means the spot for him. The Dolphins will be behind, and he's not a big part of the attack when they're playing from behind. Just nine targets all year.
Pass Catchers
The volume might not very big on the Lions side, but it's still very concentrated. Last four games shown here:
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100) just won't go much past $8K. I'd rather do it in a spot I think can shoot out, but his floor is solid, and this is a cake matchup. I think he'll get his 15-20 points easily, and maybe he grabs a couple of touchdowns to reach the ceiling. He's fine, but not quite perfect.
I'll probably leave off Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams. I think the Lions win this game with Gibbs and St. Brown. It's not a spot to pay the fair prices for those two.
If we're interested in Willis, we should in theory be somewhat interested in some of the Dolphins pass catchers. It's a good spot for them.
Last four games:
Malik Washington ($4,700) is the guy. 24% target share, 24% TPRR, 1.95 yards per route. The Malik-to-Malik hook-up is working better than I thought it could. So I'm pretty into Washington if we need a sub-$5K receiver. The volume isn't always there, but he has 8+ targets three times this year and at least five targets in four of the last five.
Recap
Lions: Gibbs & Amon Ra
Dolphins: Willis & Washington
Jets vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs come home to a favorable matchup after losing two games on the road.
Here are the matchups:
The only green spot there is tight ends vs. the Chiefs. A lot of that depends on which tight ends you've played. And the Chiefs played the Raiders and gave up 36 points to Bowers + Mayer in that game. So that will skew it.
With a 47.5-point total and the Chiefs a 9.5-point favorite, we'll be looking at Kenneth Walker. He's had two down games in those tough spots in Seattle and Denver, so it might be time to buy a bit low on him.
Quarterbacks
Mahomes has been below 20 DraftKings points more than he's been above it. They have still been a pass-happy offense (+3.5% PROE%), but the receiving core hasn't been able to make big plays, Mahomes has a 5.8 yard average depth of attempt, and he's not running. So he's not a very good-looking play at $6,100.
Geno Smith doesn't do it for us in this spot, either. Only two really good games for him in fantasy point scoring, and this matchup doesn't look good.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker ($9,000) has not gotten cheaper with his two down weeks. That's disappointing to see. He's still $1K cheaper than Gibbs, and will project very well. He has averaged just three yards per carry the last two, so he's not unstoppable. The Jets have done about a league-average job against RBs, but I think Walker will get it going this week. It's just a question about if he's worth the $9K or not. Emmet Johnson made some big plays last week, but he's still at just 23% of the snaps the last two weeks, so this isn't becoming a split.
I'm fine with Walker. He has ten targets the last two weeks, so he's still doing that. He's been running 15-20 routes even when the games haven't gone well. So the floor is nice on that side. We'll need a touchdown to make this price work, but I'm not opposed to it right now.
Braelon Allen ($6,300) has earned the starting job. In Hall's absence, he has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over the last five games. More than 100 yards per game, 17 targets, and two scores. With Breece Hall possibly coming back, he'd be off the board. I would think Allen would still get the majority of the carries, but at $6,400 against the Chiefs - you need most of them. But maybe Hall won't suit up again, that would put Allen in the mix. But I think there will be better plays than that one with the Jets being a big underdog against a pretty good defense.
Pass Catchers
This is the Chiefs' biggest problem. No big play makers in the WR/TE rooms.
Rashee Rice ($6,400) has been the best in the YPRR at 2.25. He's a little more expensive than I'd like in a game that the Chiefs could carry. I don't think he's really in play, but if you're picking one for a stack in this game, it's probably him. Nobody else seems to have the juice.
Garrett Wilson ($6,600) has been inconsistent. It was always going to be that way on this offense. He's getting a ton of looks and targets, but sometimes the offense just duds out. And last week, Adonai Mitchell ($4,500) popped off for a big game.
It's a high price for Wilson with the floor. But he does have a 25% target per route the last five weeks and 1.96 yards per route. The problem is just one touchdown. He's not reliable for six. And the Chiefs have done a good job against WRs.
The tight end spot for the Jets is too thin with Kenyon Sadiq and Mason Taylor both active. Last week, Taylor played 62% of the snaps and saw five targets. But they'll both play, and neither guy is trustworthy for fantasy points.
Recap
Chiefs: Kenneth Walker for cash, Rashee Rice in a game stack w/ NYJ pieces
Jets: Braelon Allen if Breece Hall can't go, but probably nobody for cash. Wilson or Mitchell in tourneys if you're stacking parts of the game.
Rams vs. Commanders
Decent total at 47.5 in this one. The Rams aren't a huge favorite on the road. But the Rams haven't been the high-flying offense that they were last year.
The matchups:
Pass attacks have worked against the Commanders. The Rams have big potential, and they're a pretty concentrated attack.
Quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels ($6,000) has a tough matchup for passing. After running for 103 yards in week five, he's run for 10 and 23 yards his last two games. But this is a high-ceiling spot for him if the Rams dominate the Commanders defense and build a big lead. It's hard to see Daniels throwing for a bunch of success, but 200+ pass yards with 50+ rush yards and a couple touchdowns could happen. I don't hate that. It's not quite perfect, but I'll put him on the list.
Running Backs
With Jacory Croskey-Merritt hurt, it's been an ugly mix for the Commanders. Definitely no plays standing out on that side. Rachaad White ($5,100) has led them with 18 carries and eight targets the last two games. That would be really nice for a one-game sample, but it's like 13-15 opportunities which isn't doing it for a guy who doesn't usually make big plays.
It's been pretty split up for the Rams. The last three games:
It looks like a matchup to me where they'll split again. Blake Corum has been great with 5.6 yards per carry and 208 yards the last three, so that makes it really tough on either guy. Kyren Williams ($7,600) is just too expensive with this going on.
Pass Catchers
Puka Nacua ($8,800) is back in play. This is a terrific spot for him. A 35% TPRR and 2.8 yards per route with a 25-228-2 line in the last three games, and that's while he hasn't been 100% healthy. I'm down for Nacua once again, but we'll have to choose between him and the big expensive RBs with these prices way up there.
The tight ends could have a big collective game against the Commanders. But who do you pick? They're really splitting up the work since Adams went out.
Higbee's on the field the most, but suddenly can't earn targets, and the other two guys are running plenty of routes. He's very cheap at $3,700 - I like that for tourneys, but doubtful for cash. But who knows, maybe we'll need that price at tight end. We'll see, I'm throwing him and Nacua on the list.
Terry McLaurin is done for the year, which makes things tough for the Commanders. It looks like it's benefited Chig Okonkwo. 64 routes in two games and a 9-101-0 line. He's at $3,600. The Rams pass D is elite, so it's not fantastic, but he does have an elevated role with McLaurin on the shelf.
Treylon Burks ($3,600) debuted last week and ran 25 routes for a 3-81-0 line. I see him as a guy maybe getting some downfield looks. But the targets were pretty split up last week, so he's not just going to be McLaurin in that absence.
Antonio Williams ($4,100) had the most targets last week at seven. But over the last three games, just a 14.6% TPRR. Nobody is dominating the looks, and it's too tough of a spot to go here, I think.
Recap
Rams: Nacua extremely strong cash play, Higbee maybe
Commanders: Jayden Daniels, cheap WR in tourneys
Giants vs. Eagles
LATE UPDATE: The Eagles will start Joe Milton instead of Tanner McKee. He's more mobile, but has very limited experience. Just five games of action in the NFL and zero starts. The line didn't move. He's just $4,100, so maybe a viable super punt play at QB. But the smart move for cash is to avoid the Eagles side at all costs. We have another very cheap and much better backup QB stepping into action in Drew Lock. So Milton doesn't make much sense even in that "punt QB" situation.
Extremely ugly situation for the Eagles. They're an underdog at home against the Giants, so that's how it's going. The matchups:
So the Eagles defense has held it together. They haven't gotten embarassed, but there's a lot of pressure on them with the offense being what it is.
QBs have been awesome against the Giants, but we're talking about Tanner McKee as the starter. Maybe there are some plays in this one, but it's a 39.5-point total and a hard game to predict.
Quarterbacks
We'll see if JJ McCarthy is for real or not. We only have the one start from him so far. He's played well and maybe he's in a spot where he can succeed. He's at $4,800, which is a little bit interesting, but probably too risky for cash.
Tanner McKee ($4,600) is the QB. They aren't moving off of him for now. But he's played poorly with a 5.6 YPA and -0.18 EPA. It helps to get experience and be the clear QB1. I think he'll play better, and this is a good spot for him. Maybe it's not an insane play. A $4,600 QB makes me happy, usually. We have a Q tag on DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley is good to go. So the weapons are getting healthier. I could be talked into McKee if Smith can go, but that's very questionable. We'll see what the projections say. I'll throw McKee on the list for now.
Running Backs
I don't see the Eagles doing enough on offense to get to Saquon Barkley ($6,200). That's a nice tag for him, but the Eagles are implied for 18 points. Barkley's averaged 4.6 yards per carry between injuries lately, but not a ton of work in the pass game with McKee in there, and limited TD upside. I think you could play Barkley with a McCarthy to Nabers stack. But that's about it.
Tyrone Tracy is on IR for the Giants and Cam Skattebo ($5,600) is questionable. If Skat can't go, we'd see a lot of Devin Singletary ($4,600). He's an okay player. 4.4 yards per carry this year and a guy who gets involved in the pass game. So that would be in consideration as a cheap RB play, but those RB slots are valuable and the opportunity cost is high. We'll see what the injury report says, but I'm interested in Singletary if he's forced into 75%+ of the snaps.
Pass Catchers
Malik Nabers ($7,300) has his price up to where it should be. It's a bet on McCarthy actually being good, but that connection has been nice in their short time together. Big 33% TPRR and 3.03 YPRR the last two games for Nabers before the bye. I don't hate it.
Isaiah Likely ($5,000) is pretty expensive, and he's been well behind Nabers and behind rookie Malachi Fields in targets with McCarthy at QB. He could have a big game, he's had plenty, but the price is too much with this newfound uncertainty given the QB situation.
I'm just going to wait on the Smith news and the projections to make any decisions on the Eagles. I'd rather just not go there. The offense is rough, McKee can't be trusted, and we just don't know where the ball will go or how healthy Smith would be even if he's playing.
McKee has been liking Makai Lemon ($4,700). He has 21% of the targets from McKee. Still not crushing by any means, but the arrow might be pointed up there. He would be under slight consideration if Smith can't go.
Recap
There is some injury-derived value. Devin Singletary could see 15+ touches as a sub-$5K back, and that's always interesting. But I'd rather not get anybody from this game if I have the choice.
Eagles: McKee & Lemon
Giants: Singletary & Nabers
Texans vs. Chargers
Two teams we haven't found many players from this year. Bad offenses, decent defenses, and a 40.5-point total. The matchups:
The Chargers have been losing for most of their season, so RBs have had some games against them.
It's an ugly game. There are no new injuries, both teams are relatively healthy. So the prices aren't going to be advantageous.
You could definitely make a tourney play on Nico Collins ($7,200), as always. The Chargers have given up some points to WRs, and Collins has been smashing on a per-route basis once again.
David Montgomery might return, but that looks questionable to doubtful. I don't see it with Woody Marks ($5,700) at this price even if Montgomery doesn't return. Marks has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and doesn't contribute much in the passing game.
I'll check the projections late in the week to see if I missed something, but this looks like one of the worst games on the board this weekend.
Raiders vs. 49ers
The Raiders got it going last week with a ton of points in a win. Kirk Cousins went off, but now they're at ten-point dog in San Francisco. It's a high total, and the 49ers offense remains missing major pieces and concentrating a lot to Kittle + CMC off the bye week.
We don't know if Mike Evans will return after the missed game and then the bye week. The projections assume he's out again. But we'll probably have to wait until Sunday to know for sure.
The Raiders are a good defense to go after. Lots of green on the board there. It would be nice to know if Evans is going to play - because that matters a great deal.
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy ($6,800) projects for 23 points, and he feels like a pretty safe option, but the price is one where you usually want a bunch of upside. Maybe Cousins and Bowers can keep up for awhile, but it could also be a smash where Purdy settles into like 20 attempts and doesn't do a lot of scoring.
Kirk Cousins ($5,300) has quite a nice point total now after some good games. He scored a rushing TD last week, which is an outlier outcome. Drew Lock is on the board as a super cheap QB, so he's probably the guy to go to if you're paying down.
Running Backs
CMC ($8,000) remains a tier or two below the top-priced RBs. He missed some time with a hamstring thing in the game before the bye. He missed the first practice of this week, so he's seemingly not 100% ready to go. But he did come back in the second half of that game, so how bad could it have been? And then two weeks to get it right? I think we'll get a full array of work from McCaffrey. With Evans missing that last game, he ran 23 routes even in that limited time. They used him in a beautiful way for fantasy, letting Kaelon Black ($5,500) shoulder some of the load out of the backfield.
If CMC is a full-go and Evans is out, he's an easy play. But it's not super easy for right now since we don't know about his health and we don't know what the status of Evans will be.
The Raiders went to Mike Washington ($5,200) last week. He took 25 carries to Jeanty's two. But he ran five routes and saw zero targets. Even if this is the approach again, Washington's tough to play. Jeanty's going to be involved in some fashion, and he ran 13 routes and saw four targets even while playing just 37% of the snaps.
Pass Catchers
It's a tight end situation. Brock Bowers ($7,900) and George Kittle ($6,000). The projections are once again in love with Kittle at $6K. Since week five (three games), he has 24 targets and an 18-181-1 line on a 28% TPRR and 2.08 YPRR. He's the WR1 with Evans out. So he's a smash play once again if Evans misses, and he's perfectly fine even with Evans in there.
For Bowers, the price is just too tough to click on for me. You're giving up Nacua/CMC/Gibbs/Walker at that point, and it's just not something I want to do in cash. But for tourneys, he's excellent if you want to use him and CMC + Kittle as a game stack. You could maybe even play him with Cousins and just hope for a shootout.
Recap
We need the news on CMC and Evans, but the 49ers will likely be a part of the cash strategy this week.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Here we are with Gardner Minshew ($4,500) facing Drew Lock ($4,000) at QB. The Seahahawks imply for 27 points against this weak Cardinals defense, and Lock was more than servicable filling in for Darnold. That's probably a cash lock at QB.
Quarterbacks
Lock projects for 16.7 points. He scored 22 in his lone start, against these Cardinals. So he's seen the defense already and knows how to run the offense. Fantastic matchup against Arizona; I think you just play him in cash and benefit from the savings.
Running Backs
Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnet split the work in the first game with both of them active. 48% of snaps to Price, 36% to Charbonnet. 10 xFP for Charbonnet, 11 for Price. Can't play either guy.
The Cardinals placed Love on IR, and Bam Knight is in concussion protocol. That could open the door for a lot of Tyler Allgeier ($5,400). But you'd be making that play against the Seahawks' defense while depending on Gardner Minshew to generate scoring opportunities. I don't think we need to do that, but it's a nice price for a guy expecting 15+ opportunities.
Pass Catchers
You can play JSN ($9,300) with Lock. He was his normal self in weeks 1-2. But it's expensive. I'm usually choosing the high-priced RBs over the WRs.
Trey McBride ($7,700) and Michael Wilson ($6,700) are huge upside players. But with the rough matchup and Minshew at QB, I don't think you do it for cash this week. Just a 15.2-point projection on McBride and 12.4 for Wilson. It could work out, but I'm not looking to play anybody against the Seahawks as a general rule.
Recap
Drew Lock looks like my cash QB. JSN is fine at $9,300.
Packers vs. Patriots
Tough game environment. Decent 45.5-point total, but two good defenses.
The Packers pass attack is concentrated, highly skilled, and the WRs have done well against New England to this point.
But all of the prices look right to me. I'm trying to fill out my lineup with values at every spot. And there are a lot of injury-related boost spots this week. I don't see anything worth playing in this game besides tourney shots on Christian Watson ($7,500) and Matthew Golden ($7,000).
The Patriots are without AJ Brown again, but it was once again just super spread out and inefficient last week without him. Targets: Chishm 5, Raridon 4, Stevenson 3, Henry 3, Douglas 3, Williams 1.
I hate this game, so I'm not going to dive in any deeper. We build the cash lineup easily without going into the ugly games this week.
Player Pool
In the next couple of weeks I expect to start a new full-time job, so I won't have the time to go game-by-game. I'll probably just change this post to looking at the projections and giving the list with some detail rather than going game-by-game. Sorry about that. So if you're subscribed specifically for these posts and you were counting on me doing them all week, let me know if/when they slow down and we can talk about a refund. But I think everybody is here mostly for the baseball stuff.
Quarterbacks
Lots changed in the QB outlook since I started writing this. Shedeur Sanders will probably have to start for the Browns. We have several backup QBs going. The best play by the projections is obvious - it's $4K Drew Lock against the Cardinals. I'm surprised they let his price drop to the minimum.
I like Malik Willis a good bit too, but I guess I'm relieved that I don't have to make that play in cash this week. I'd definitely use him with Gibbs/Amon-Ra in a tourney lineup or two.
There's really not much at the top of the board to get excited about. Josh Allen isn't on the slate. The top projection is Brock Purdy at $6,800 for 22.9 points. I'm starting with a first-click on Lock.
- Drew Lock $4,000
- Malik Willis $5,100
- Dak Prescott $6,500 in DAL/IND stacks
- Jayden Daniels $6,000
Running Backs
Jonah Coleman is the top value at $5,300 in this awesome matchup with the Panthers. He should be the primary ball carrier and get most of the targets out of the backfield as well. Just a perfect spot for him.
It should be pretty easy to fit in Gibbs or CMC with Lock at QB. If Evans misses and CMC is 100%, I'd go to him. But if there are any doubts there, we can afford to get to Gibbs at $10K against the Dolphins.
- Christian McCaffrey $8,000
- Jahmyr Gibbs $10,000
- Jonah Coleman $5,300
- Kenneth Walker $9,000
- Javonte Williams $7,300
- Tyler Allgeier $5,400
- Seth McGowan $5,000 if Taylor gets traded
Wide Receivers
It's another Puka week. He hasn't had the huge 35+ point game he's capable of, but I think it's coming. This is the healthiest he's been, and I think we see him smash against the Commanders.
I don't see any lock play candidates other than Nacua. Not the greatest week at WR. Not that there aren't awesome options with JSN and Lamb, but their prices just aren't screaming value anymore.
The projections like Efton Chism ($3,600) a good bit. So that's a viable-ish punt, but I think the floor is pretty darn low. But it was nice to see him leading the team in targets last week and making some big plays in weeks prior. You don't need a ton at $3,600 to make it work, and that could open you up to easily fitting Nacua + Gibbs.
I personally like Malik Washington at $4,700. It's a little thin. We know you can beat the Lions with the pass, but can Malik Willis do it? It's a bet I'd like to make. Washington's separated himself from the team in target-earning. So while the ceiling isn't great, I feel like he's good for 6+ targets and a double-digit score at this price.
- Puka Nacua $8,800
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba $9,300
- Malik Washington $4,700
- Keenan Allen $4,900 if Downs gets traded
- Jalen Coker $6,200 for tourneys
- Amon-Ra St. Brown $8,100
- Efton Chism $3,600
- CeeDee Lamb $8,300 in DAL/IND stacks
- Rashee Rice $6,400 in game stacks
- Makai Lemon $4,700 if Smith is out
- Garrett Wilson $6,600 in game stacks
- Adonai Mitchell $4,500 tourneys
Tight Ends
I suppose we can afford Kittle this week. And that's good, because there are not great options at the lower prices. The projections highlight Dalton Schultz ($3,200) and Greg Dulcich ($3,100) as the best punts. It's fine to punt TE, you can survive a 5-10 point performance. But I'd rather get to Kittle, and I think we can.
- George Kittle $6,000
- Trey McBride $7,700
- Brock Bowers $7,800
- Tyler Higbee $3,800
Defenses
- Saints $2,900
- Giants $2,800
- Eagles $2,500
