Early ADP Tiers: Outfield, Part 1
A quick look at outfield using early ADP data and projections
Other positions covered so far:
Almost done! We’re beginning to cover the outfield in this one. After we finish it, we will be done with the EARLY ADP look, and we’ll be pretty close to the actual POSITION PREVIEW season. I should have probably just committed this effort to getting the team previews done sooner, but we must finish what we start! And this post series has been helpful in seeing where the high-stakes drafters are putting their money. Let’s get into it.
Tier One
Aaron Judge
Juan Soto
I do not like the ADP on Soto. He was always a back-half of the first round guy, but now he’s boosted up to ADP 4 after stealing all of those bags last year. And that’s the kicker. I’m not buying the steals. I think it was all about trying to get to some 30-30, 40-40 milestone last year, and I don’t think it repeats. I think he drops back to a dozen or so steals, and that’s what I’ve told my projection model to spit out.
There’s also the batting average question. My projection is very strong on Soto at .289, but remember his history:
→ 2021: .313
→ 2022: .242
→ 2023: .275
→ 2024: .288
→ 2025: .263
I think a .265 batting average with 10-12 steals is in the range of outcomes for Soto, and that would be a bad outcome as the #4 overall pick. I think I’d draft Carroll and Acuna Jr. over Soto. So I guess I won’t have any shares of that guy!
Tier Two
Corbin Carroll
Ronald Acuña Jr.
Julio Rodriguez
The first round is the first round. You don’t win your league or even make a big difference on your standing with your first few picks. But getting Carroll and Acuna Jr. in the second half of the first round feels pretty exciting to me. Both of those guys could end up at the #1 overall roto player with their 30-30-.300 abilities.
J-Rod isn’t far behind, either. These are five-category studs with a ton of ceiling in their game.
You are betting on Carroll repeating that power outburst and on Acuna being and staying healthy, and that’s the slight difference that keeps them below Judge/Ohtani/Witt. But they’re all stud hitters, and you want to draft a stud hitter in the first round.
Tier Three
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