Early ADP Tiers: Starting Pitcher, Part 2
A look at 23 more SPs as we scroll through the early SP ADP data
Other positions covered so far:
We covered the top 19 SPs last time and put them into five ADP tiers. A reminder: these aren’t my ranks, they are just how the early ADP is shaking out. The field is sharp. These are people putting real money into their fantasy baseball teams, so you’d do just fine using this early high-stakes ADP as your SP ranks. That doesn’t mean it’s perfect, and I’ve already seen plenty of spots I’d love to exploit. My ranks will not match the ADP when they’re finished. But they’re taking a long time to finish as I work my way methodically through each team. So we’re just looking at the clumps, familiarizing ourselves with the landscape, and making some comments and jokes along the way.
Since we did 19 last time, I’ll target about 20 more this time. I guess that makes this at least a four-part series!
Tier 6
Spencer Schwellenbach
One man tiers are kinda stupid, but the lines draw themselves. Don’t look at me, man! We have Kirby at 67, Schwelly at 79, and Cease at 86. So it’s an island situation for Schwellenbach.
Schwellenbach’s numbers were marvelous in 19 starts, but his season ended in late June. It seems as though he would have pitched in the postseason if the Braves were there. But since they were drawing dead, they elected to shut him down.
It never feels great to have an SP2 or SP3 who threw just half a season the year before, but I’m more than willing to do with Schwellenbach. His numbers have been fantastic ever since arriving, and he should be 100% healthy even right now.
Tier 7
Dylan Cease
Spencer Strider
Eury Perez
Jesus Luzardo
Nick Pivetta
Framber Valdez
And now we start having some problems. All of these guys have ace potential, but there’s a mixture of concerns surrounding age (Pivetta, Framber), health (Strider, Eury), and “sometimes he sucks disease” (Cease, Luzardo, Strider).
Strider and Eury are the most electric of the bunch, but both had some poor moments last year in their returns from major arm surgery. It feels like a good time to buy back in. They’ll both be far removed from the injuries, and they both finished the 2025 season healthy.